Looking back on Monday's A-share market, the contraction of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated, and market structural opportunities gradually emerged. It is worth mentioning that the stock index reappeared its weakness last Friday. At the beginning of the session, it began to fluctuate in a narrow range, followed by a wave of diving. In the afternoon, the stock index continued to decline uniformly, showing a pulse downward pattern.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the market rebounded rapidly after reaching the bottom of 3000 points, but the rebound rate weakened significantly last week, and the market did have the power of double bottom this week, it is suggested to pay attention to the gap performance of 31773197 points. If the market center of gravity cannot be effectively supported, it may return to near 3100 points, otherwise it may maintain a narrow range above the gap . Operationally, any rebound of in the downward trend is not a good participation point. It is suggested to find the panic point in the session, and it is more safe to copy the bottom, and pay attention to the obvious anti falling sector .
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the index fluctuated and rested last Friday, the Shanghai index stayed at 3200 points temporarily, the net outflow of funds from the North continued, the volume of the two cities continued to shrink, suppressing market confidence, short-term market trend still repeated, waiting for the market to gradually shake and stabilize, focusing on the changes of capital flow and volume in the North , and it is suggested to focus on the layout of the middle line in operation, focusing on finance, food and beverage, real estate Electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
As for the future market, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that should dialectically treat the opportunities and risks of A-Shares . In the process of repeatedly grinding the bottom, we should avoid excessive optimism or pessimism: on the one hand, "stable growth" is still the main line of China's current policy. Under the monetary policy pattern of "external tightening and internal loosening", there is still room for China to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates, and the Shanghai index is near Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) 00 points or a relatively solid bottom; On the other hand, there are still external factors such as the rhythm of interest rate increase and contraction of the Federal Reserve, and on the other hand, there are still external factors. It is suggested that investors actively grasp the phased opportunities after the oversold, and beware of the risks after the index rises too much.
In terms of industry allocation, pays attention to three main investment lines : first, the marginal benefit policy is relaxed, such as "bank and real estate"; Second, "agriculture and gold" benefiting from inflation expectations; Third, the theme of policy (support) promotion is related to "new energy (photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy), semiconductor, counting East and west", etc.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that A shares have not yet reached the time of trend reversal, and the index will still be in range shock. From the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market, do a good job in defense and counterattack, rather than trend counterattack . From a strategic point of view, spring will finally come, and we should also be ready for the coming spring . However, the premise is that investors still need to defend and wait until the demand side policies and fundamental expectations are clear. Maintain the "empty cup" mentality. The short-term market is still dominated by sideways shocks, maintaining 31003400 points. At the same time, another important factor that cannot be ignored is the transaction structure. The rise of investors' risk-free interest rate is making A-Shares enter the contraction game.
In addition, according to Haitong strategy, ① there are three major concerns in market at present: capital outflow caused by narrowing interest rate difference between China and the United States, inflation driven by rising commodity prices under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and repeated impact of Chinese epidemic on the economy. ② We judge that the worst moment of negative factors may be gradually passing , the time and space for market adjustment have been obvious, the valuation has been low, and stable growth is expected to drive the market repair. ③ configuration focuses on the main line of stable growth such as photovoltaic wind power of new infrastructure and cloud computing of data center, focusing on undervalued financial real estate.
In addition, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) mentioned that in April this year, the bottom continued to shake, and the growth maintaining related industries and some high boom industries may be stronger. The molecular side profit may be weak due to the suppression of the epidemic, the micro liquidity may be repaired, and the risk appetite is still neutral. In april, A-Shares continued to shock and bottom . In terms of industry allocation, we pay attention to new and old infrastructure guided by policies, medicine, military industry and semiconductor with oversold but high prosperity, and TMT benefiting from the increased living demand on the midline of the epidemic.
In the macro aspect, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that the profits and exports of industrial enterprises from January to February showed that China's overall demand was relatively resilient, but the cost pressure was prominent against the background of high upstream prices. In terms of subdivided departments, the profits were redistributed between the upper and middle reaches, and the profits began to concentrate to the upper reaches. In the follow-up, once the steady growth begins to exert obvious force, under the background of tight supply and low inventory, the profits will further gather in the upstream and be further squeezed in the middle reaches. Therefore, in the context of this year's stable growth year, we should give more consideration to the most upstream links of each industrial chain. Pay attention to the core industries and individual stock selection logic of "demand comes from stable growth and profits go upstream".
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the short-term market may still be repeated, but the more targeted "steady growth" policy may also gradually bring about the improvement of fundamental expectations. The stage similar to the sharp decline in the previous period may have ended, and the short-term market may still be in the bottom grinding stage. In combination with the recent market adjusted valuation, which has gradually approached the level of December 2018 and the end of March 2020, in the medium-term dimension, market opportunities outweigh risks. In the future, if combined with the market transaction, it may further shrink to about 700 billion yuan, which may be more helpful to judge the emergence of .
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that currently focuses on three directions : 1) potential areas of policy support, including infrastructure, industrial chains related to the stable demand of real estate (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption with more adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects in 2021, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; 3) The manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has released some risks, and the turnaround is waiting for the marginal mitigation of overseas "inflation" risk.
Anxin Securities pointed out that in the bottom grinding stage from "policy bottom to market bottom", the market is facing the repression of economic downturn and policy uncertainty, and the performance of value-based and counter cyclical industries (such as infrastructure and real estate) and weak cycle industries is better than that of growth industries. However, after the bottom grinding stage, the risk appetite rebounded, and the city market will return to the growth style, and the performance of the high-risk preference sector is expected to be better .
corresponds to the current four main lines : steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation. At present, we are in the process of "delivering steady growth and turning the corner with high prosperity". Our proposed configuration is still steady growth, high prosperity global inflation post epidemic repair. In addition, in our recent communication with market investors, the order of preference is: growth, medicine, cycle real estate, weighted blue chip (Finance), breeding old infrastructure and consumption.
