Today (March 28), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and the pattern of Shanghai strength and Shenzhen weakness was obvious in the morning. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index showed a trend of shock and decline, while the Shanghai index once turned red and rose in the session, and then the upper offensive degree was insufficient, following the decline of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index.
From the disk point of view, “two barrels of oil” supported a shares, bank stocks rose to support the market, the real estate sector once again took the lead, coal, yuanuniverse and Hongmeng concept performed prominently, the rise and fall of other industries and concept sectors were different, and the local profit-making effect still existed. Among the real estate sectors, among the real estate sectors, among the real estate sectors. As of the date of the manuscript, as of the date of the manuscript, the Tianjin Realty Development (Group) Co.Ltd(600322) realize9-board connection.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] bank
China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) mentioned that although the credit demand weakened in February and the social financing increment was less than expected, we believe that with the increasing weight of the steady growth policy, the financing demand is expected to gradually stabilize and recover in the future. At the meeting of the finance committee, it was proposed that “new loans should maintain a moderate growth”, and there is no doubt about the sustainability of credit relief. This year’s stable growth and wide credit environment are conducive to the stability of bank fundamentals. The performance of listed banks has maintained rapid growth and stable asset quality in the first two months. At present, the valuation of the sector is at a historical low, and the head bank has also deeply corrected to the low valuation in recent years. It continues to focus on Ping’an, Ningbo, Changshu and postal savings.
Shengang Securities pointed out that this round of bank market Suggestions focus on three main lines: first, the state-owned large banks that have performed well in previous market China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) ; Second, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , which have earlier layout in the field of high-end manufacturing and green loans, and third, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , which have developed rapidly in large retail business.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that from the 2021 annual reports of several listed banks, the profit growth rate of most banks was further improved compared with the third quarterly report, and the asset quality performance was stable and good. Looking forward to the second quarter, the actions on the sector can be sufficient: 1) the marginal easing of real estate policy is conducive to the credit risk mitigation of banks, especially considering that after the continuous liquidation of asset quality in the industry in the past 3-4 years, the pressure of non-performing generation is expected to be controllable, and the performance of asset quality is expected to remain stable; 2) China’s goal of steady growth is clear. In the face of the pressure of the current economic environment outside China, it can be predicted that more steady growth policies are expected to continue in 2022, help improve economic expectations and provide effective support for the fundamental operation of banks; 3) At present, the static valuation level of the sector is only 0.59x, which is still at a historical low. The pessimistic expectations of the market for the macro-economy and the quality of bank assets are fully reflected. During the performance disclosure period, we believe that the confirmation of performance improvement is expected to become the catalyst of the sector market, so we suggest paying active attention to it.
[Theme 2] real estate development
Capital Securities said that the high-level statement released positive signals and the policy window period came. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of “stable growth”, the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
[Theme 3] coal
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that the global coal supply lacks elasticity and the supply and demand pattern is tight. At present, China’s coal production capacity has entered a contraction period, and the withdrawal of coal production capacity under “carbon neutralization” has accelerated. At the same time, the amendment to the new criminal law suppresses the overproduction of coal mines. Even if some nuclear increased production capacity is released, it is still difficult to change the supply tension in the medium-term 3-5 years; On the import side, the overall output of major international coal producers related to China has fallen sharply, and the import can not make up for the gap, and we are facing a shortage of global coal supply. China’s supply gap is expected to expand year by year from 2022 to 2025.
In addition, Cinda Securities said that in the next 2-3 months, as all parts of the South enter the peak summer stage, coal supply will still face great pressure. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that under the premise of steady economic growth, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China’s coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
[theme 4] yuan universe
Guosheng securities mentioned that after years of intensive policy influence, the A-share media sector has obvious valuation advantages. Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) trends such as yuancosmos are expected to bring marginal business increment. Individual stocks with good fundamentals for a long time have reached a better price position from the perspective of medium-term allocation.
In the Hong Kong stock market, from the medium-term perspective, some Hong Kong stocks and zhonggai Internet targets are at historically low valuations. It is suggested to pay more attention from the perspective of fundamentals.
Anxin Securities said that in China, the strongest certainty of metauniverse in 2022 is the virtual digital man and NFT, which are located in the two sectors of “content and scene, collaborators” that China is good at. In the era of mobile Internet, content is divided into two parts from the perspective of realization – content works and realized content. Virtual digital people serve both content works and realized content; NFT is a mechanism for revaluation of digital assets.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) believes that the theme of metauniverse has been fully adjusted, and it is still expected to run through the whole year in the medium and long term. The segmentation continues to be optimistic: a) the game valuation and performance continue to improve, recommend Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , and pay attention to Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) , Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.Ltd(002605) ; b) As an important carrier of the meta universe, VR is expected to accelerate its application, focusing on Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) , Hangzhou Shunwang Technology Co.Ltd(300113) , etc; c) NFT of digital assets is expected to generate more application fields, focusing on Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) , Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) , Fubo group, etc; d) Virtual digital people usher in the application outlet, bottom marketing companies and film and television content companies usher in the possibility of upward valuation, and pay attention to Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) , Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) and other marketing industry chain targets.
