Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : welcome the policy climax and sales recovery! 3-4 month is an important time to continue to over allocate real estate blue chips
From historical experience, real estate stocks do not fluctuate with the changes of fundamental prices, but rise and fall with the expected rise and fall of policy tightness. Now it seems that policy means are enough to promote the rebound of fundamentals, and the willingness of policy intervention under credit risk has reached the highest point. We believe that March April 2022 is an important time to continue to over allocate real estate blue chips. We are optimistic about Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Midea real estate, Longhu group, China Resources Land, Greentown China and Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) .
Ping An Securities: the current valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low outstanding cost performance
Considering that the pressure on the development of the industry remains unabated, there is still room for improvement on the policy side, and the valuation of the sector is expected to continue to repair. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the painful period of this round, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved.
The development sector pays attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and other leading real estate enterprises with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages, and moderately pays attention to the elastic second-line targets, such as Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) .
At present, the valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low and the cost performance is prominent. With the continuous deregulation of policies and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is also expected to bring high-quality property management valuation repair, focusing on such services as country garden service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, Xingsheng business, etc.
open source Securities: continue to be optimistic about 2022 real estate sector allocation opportunities high-quality enterprises have the basis for long-term valuation improvement
We continue to be optimistic about the allocation opportunities of the real estate sector in 2022, the policy area continues to improve, the inefficient production capacity continues to be cleared, the industry pattern is significantly improved, and high-quality enterprises have the basis for long-term valuation improvement. Beneficiary objects: (1) Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development, Xuhui holding group and other robust leaders; (2) Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , commercial real estate leader represented by Baolong commerce.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the competition pattern of head real estate enterprises continues to be optimized! Three main lines recommended
In 2022, the real estate sector will usher in the continuous improvement of policies, and the recovery of the local auction market will drive the repair of the supply side, adding investment opportunities for the continuous optimization of the competition pattern of the leading real estate enterprises. Three main lines are recommended: 1) leading real estate enterprises under the structural differentiation of financing environment: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Regional deep ploughing private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) High rated and stable private enterprises: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: the continuous emergence of the effect of the backing policy the survival probability of some private real estate enterprises will be greatly increased
Although the industry risks are constantly exposed, the introduction of early-stage policies is relatively restrained. The real estate will not usher in a new cycle brought by the re financialization of the supply side, but a new development stage based on the real housing demand. It is for this reason that the clearing of the industry and the running out of excellent enterprises can achieve stable profits and corresponding valuation repair. The market has a high degree of trust in state-owned enterprises, but there are still great doubts about private enterprises. We expect that with the continuous appearance of the effect of the supporting policy, the survival probability of some private enterprises will also be greatly improved. Recommend Poly Real estate, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China overseas development, China Resources Land, China Jinmao, green city China, CNOOC property, China Resources Vientiane services, etc. among central state-owned enterprises; Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , rongchuang China, rongchuang service, Xuhui holding group, country garden, Longhu group and Baolong business benefit from 5I5J Holding Group Co.Ltd(000560) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , country garden services.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities: it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand in the real estate industry is expected to accelerate
Real estate is still the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, under the current multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voice of the government to emphasize stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs stabilizing the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration. High quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in the improvement of both quantity and quality. Based on the experience of pattern optimization at home and abroad, PE, a leading real estate enterprise, is expected to rise to 10 times. We maintain the “optimistic” rating of the real estate sector. Recommendations: A shares: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; H shares: China Resources Land, China overseas development, Longhu group, Xuhui holdings, country garden; And maintain the “optimistic” rating of the property management sector, and recommend: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane, poly property, CNOOC property, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , Greentown service, Baolong business and xinchengyue service.
Guosheng Securities: under the tone of maintaining stability, the real estate policy is expected to be phased marginal easing! Pay attention to the post cycle valuation and repair opportunities of real estate
The new construction and sales of short-term real estate remain weak, and the investment side remains resilient. In the first half of the year, it is expected that the pressure on the demand side will still be reflected. On the profit side, the high pressure on the upstream raw material price is still testing the profitability, but the price transmission and product structure adjustment are expected to hedge some of the impact; At the valuation level, most consumer building materials targets are already in the lower limit of the historical valuation range, and the valuation repair needs to continue to track the marginal changes of policies. Recently, the six ministries and commissions have actively stated to stabilize the real estate, and the real estate policy is expected to be phased marginal easing under the tone of maintaining stability, paying attention to the opportunities for valuation repair of building materials in the post real estate cycle; It is suggested to pay attention to 1) the leaders of engineering building materials with growth, especially the companies that have established the small b customer development and multi category sales system of sinking market.
Core recommendations Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; It is also recommended to pay attention to the subdivided leading enterprises with strong growth flexibility and whose valuation has been at the lower limit of the historical range, and recommend Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ; It is recommended that Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) .
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) : continuous deregulation of local government policies focus on 4 real estate investment mainlines
Local government policies continue to be relaxed, and the scope has been expanded to become a strong second tier city. We believe that we should pay attention to four main investment lines at present: 1) development enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Xuhui holding, China Construction Development international holding, Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) etc; 2) Property management enterprises: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, etc; 3) Track transformation Enterprises: Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) etc; 4) Real estate brokerage Enterprises: shells, etc.
