Today (March 28), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. At the beginning of the session, the stock index plunged rapidly, and then the index bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by financial stocks, the Shanghai index once pulled up. However, the weakness of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index was prominent, resulting in the rise and fall of the Shanghai index. After the afternoon, the three major stock indexes continued the pattern of strong Shanghai and weak Shenzhen, and the gem also ushered in a new low within the day, while the Shanghai index barely turned red.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index rose 0.07% to 3214.5 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 1.02% to 1194994 points; The gem index fell 1.66% to 259413.
From the disk point of view, the rise and fall of industry and concept sectors are different, and the local profit-making effect is still in existence. In terms of industries, real estate, coal, cultural media, automobile, cement and building materials, banking, tourism hotels, games and other industries led the increase; In terms of theme stocks, Hongmeng concept, NFT concept, longevity medicine, rental and sale rights, radio and television, virtual digital man, metauniverse, cloud games and so on led the rise.
In terms of funds, the central bank announced on March 28 that in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the quarter, the people’s Bank of China carried out 150 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on March 28, 2022, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.1%. As 30 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, the people’s Bank of China realized a net investment of 120 billion yuan in the open market.
hot sector p align = “center” Top 10 of industry sector increase p align = “center” Top 10 of industry sector decrease p align = “center” Top 10 of concept sector increase p align = “center” Top 10 of concept sector decrease
individual stock monitoring p align = “center” Top 10 net inflow of main force p align = “center” Top 10 net outflow of main force
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message surface
1. According to the Chinese government website, the State Council issued the notice on the establishment of special additional deduction of individual income tax for the care of infants and young children under the age of 3. The notice mentioned that the relevant expenses of taxpayers for caring for infants and children under the age of 3 shall be deducted according to the standard quota of 1000 yuan per month for each infant and child. Parents can choose to deduct 100% of the deduction standard by one party or 50% of the deduction standard by both parties. The specific deduction method cannot be changed within a tax year.
2. According to the news on the website of the big commercial exchange, it is determined through research that since the settlement on Wednesday, March 30, 2022, the margin level of speculative trading of iron ore futures i2205 and i2209 contracts will be adjusted from 12% to 15%, and the range of price limit and the margin level of hedging trading will remain unchanged at 10%.
3. According to the interface news report, according to the national development and Reform Commission, the pig grain price ratio has entered the level-1 early warning range of excessive decline for five consecutive weeks. As of March 23, the exit price of pigs nationwide was 13.06 yuan / kg, down 1.28% from March 16; The price of corn in the main wholesale market was 2.88 yuan / kg, unchanged from March 16; The specific price of pig grain was 4.53, down 1.31% from March 16.
4. According to the news client of China Central Television, the stable supply and price of spring ploughing chemical fertilizer is directly related to the stability of spring ploughing production. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice jointly with 11 departments and units, including the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of ecological environment, the Ministry of transport, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the Ministry of Commerce, the SASAC, the General Administration of customs, the State Administration of market supervision, the general supply and marketing cooperation agency and the State Railway Group, All localities and relevant central enterprises are required to start with the production, supply, storage and marketing of chemical fertilizer, ensure the stable operation of chemical fertilizer supply and market, and support agricultural production in spring by strengthening China’s chemical fertilizer production and supply capacity, improving the transportation capacity of chemical fertilizer and its production raw materials, actively doing a good job in reserves, improving the circulation efficiency of chemical fertilizer, strengthening the coordination of agricultural materials market supervision, and Earnestly Promoting the reduction and efficiency of chemical fertilizer, Consolidate the foundation of summer grain harvest.
institutional views
For the current market, Rongwei securities mentioned that the three major stock indexes made up the gap of the short jump on March 17, and the trend may continue to test the low point on March 16. Due to the great change in market sentiment compared with the rapid decline stage in the early stage, individual stocks performed more actively in the session. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to the individual stocks whose low point significantly raised the trend, and control their positions, which should not be rash.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the short-term market may still be repeated, but the more targeted “steady growth” policy may also gradually bring about the improvement of fundamental expectations. The stage similar to the sharp decline in the previous period may have ended, and the short-term market may still be in the bottom grinding stage. Combined with the recent market adjusted valuation, it has gradually approached the level of December 2018 and the end of March 2020. From the medium-term perspective, the market opportunity is greater than the risk. In the future, if combined with the market transaction, it may further shrink to about 700 billion yuan, which may be more helpful to judge the emergence of the bottom of the market stage.
Bohai Securities pointed out that the market may enter the stage of policy game under the background of steady growth pressure rising due to external factors and China’s epidemic situation. In the short term, the market will maintain the bottom shock situation before the policy effectively promotes the expected reversal. In the medium and long term, the goal of steady growth this year is relatively clear, and the comprehensive registration system reform will also be implemented within the year. The shock process of the market at the bottom will provide a good time window for the allocation of opportunities within the year. We should focus on the possible direction of the market in the next stage. Industry allocation: Based on the judgment that the index will make up the gap downward, we can pay attention to the sectors with strong rebound after the gold stability meeting, such as coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, tourism, aviation, etc., or step back in resonance with the index to complete the adjustment; At the same time, in combination with the easy rise and fall of US inflation and the stagflation risk raised by the Fed’s interest rate increase, it is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of gold.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities said that the profit expectation decreased + the discount rate expectation increased. The time for A-Shares to reverse the trend has not yet come, and the index will still fluctuate in the range. From the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market, do a good job in defense and counterattack, rather than trend counterattack. From a strategic point of view, spring will eventually come, and we should also be ready for the coming spring. However, the premise is that investors still need to defend and wait until the demand side policies and fundamental expectations are clear. Maintain the “empty cup” mentality. The short-term market is still dominated by sideways shocks, maintaining 31003400 points. At the same time, another important factor that cannot be ignored is the transaction structure. The rise of investors’ risk-free interest rate is making A-Shares enter the contraction game.
The agency further analyzed that the current stock selection logic should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement, and the industry selection should focus on consumption and cycle sectors. Specifically, there are three directions: 1) pro inflation & High Dividend: coal and chemical resources; 2) To G end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; 3) dilemma reversal and profitability certainty: pigs and Baijiu, and focus on the bottom elasticity of consumer goods and light industry in the middle part of Q2.
