Today (March 28), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. After the stock index fell slightly at the beginning of the session, the Shanghai index gradually fluctuated, rose and turned red, and then fell back and fluctuated again. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index were weak. In the afternoon, the stock index maintained the range shock trend, and the Shanghai index barely turned red at the end of the session, while the gem index was significantly weaker than the Shanghai index.
In this regard, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that the opportunities and risks of A-Shares should be viewed dialectically. In the process of repeatedly grinding the bottom, we should avoid excessive optimism or pessimism: on the one hand, “stable growth” is still the main line of China’s current policy. Under the monetary policy pattern of “external tightening and internal loosening”, there is still room for China to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates, and the Shanghai index is near Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) 00 points or a relatively solid bottom; On the other hand, there are still external factors such as the rhythm of interest rate increase and contraction of the Federal Reserve, and on the other hand, there are still external factors. It is suggested that investors actively grasp the phased opportunities after the oversold, and beware of the risks after the index rises too much.
At the same time, the agency further analyzed and focused on three main investment lines: first, the marginal relaxation of benefit policies, such as “banking and real estate”; Second, “agriculture and gold” benefiting from inflation expectations; Third, the theme of policy (support) promotion is related to “new energy (photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy), semiconductor, counting East and west”, etc.
sector:
I. real estate development
Capital Securities said that the high-level statement released positive signals and the policy window period came. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of “stable growth”, the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
The agency further analyzed and maintained the “optimistic” rating of the real estate sector. Recommendations: A shares: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; H shares: China Resources Land, China overseas development, Longhu group, Xuhui holdings, country garden; And maintain the “optimistic” rating of the property management sector, and recommend: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane, poly property, CNOOC property, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , Greentown service, Baolong business and xinchengyue service.
II. Coal
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that the global coal supply lacks elasticity and the supply and demand pattern is tight. At present, China’s coal production capacity has entered a contraction period, and the withdrawal of coal production capacity under “carbon neutralization” has accelerated. At the same time, the amendment to the new criminal law suppresses the overproduction of coal mines. Even if some nuclear increased production capacity is released, it is still difficult to change the supply tension in the medium-term 3-5 years; On the import side, the overall output of major international coal producers related to China has fallen sharply, and the import can not make up for the gap, and we are facing a shortage of global coal supply. China’s supply gap is expected to expand year by year from 2022 to 2025.
In addition, Cinda Securities said that in the next 2-3 months, as all parts of the South enter the peak summer stage, coal supply will still face great pressure. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that under the premise of steady economic growth, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China’s coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
one drawing summary:
