Hydrogen energy industry chain is for preparation, storage, transportation and filling. As an energy carrier, it is used in transportation, electric power, industry, construction and other fields. In the field of transportation, hydrogen energy and fuel cell planning are mainly used for high fuel consumption commercial vehicles such as heavy trucks and trucks, which complement lithium battery vehicles. In the field of electric power, hydrogen energy can be produced through renewable energy power, which can play a role in large-scale energy storage and peak shaving, effectively solve the consumption problem of new energy power, realize the cross regional and cross temporal and spatial regulation of different types of energy, guide the application of renewable energy power in industry, construction and other fields, and help it deeply decarbonize.
Hydrogen energy will become an important part of China’s energy system. By the end of 2021, China has achieved a hydrogen production capacity of about 40 million tons / year and an output of about 33 million tons / year. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, by 2050, hydrogen energy will account for at least 10% of China’s terminal energy system, the demand will exceed 60 million tons, and the carbon dioxide emission can be reduced by about 700 million tons.
At present, the raw materials of hydrogen production are mostly fossil energy, and the proportion of green hydrogen is low. By 2020, the source and proportion of hydrogen produced in China will be 64% of coal, 21% of industrial by-products, 14% of natural gas and 1% of electrolytic water. Hydrogen production from electrolyzed water includes alkaline electrolyzed water (AEL), proton exchange membrane electrolyzed water (pemel) and solid oxide electrolyzed water (soel). Among them, soel has high energy conversion efficiency, but it has not yet reached the stage of commercial application. The energy conversion efficiency of hydrogen prepared by AEL method is 10% lower than that of pemel, and the cost is nearly 40 yuan / kg less.
Electricity charges account for more than 75% of the cost of hydrogen production from electrolytic water. The cost of electricity per kilowatt hour from renewable energy continues to decline, and the economy of hydrogen production from green electricity is prominent. According to the calculation of Zhang Xuan and others, under the electricity price cost of 0.2 yuan / kWh and 5000 hours of equipment utilization time, the cost of hydrogen production will be as low as 20 yuan / kg This cost line is also the economic premise for the large-scale development of hydrogen fuel cell applications.
Electrolyzer and proton exchange membrane are the investment directions of green electricity hydrogen production. In 2025, China is expected to produce 200000 tons of hydrogen from renewable energy in the early stage of commercialization and scale-up. Under the condition that AEL technology accounts for 85% and pemel technology accounts for 15%, the market space of AEL electrolytic cell will reach 1.519 billion yuan, the market space of pemel electrolytic cell will reach 1.775 billion yuan, and the market space of the whole renewable energy hydrogen production equipment will reach 4.371 billion yuan. At the same time, the proton exchange membrane monopolized by foreign enterprises. At present, Chinese enterprises are building relatively medium and low-end proton exchange membrane products for domestic replacement.
Suggestions on Hydrogen Energy Investment: the medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035) has been officially implemented, and the top-level design has been carried out for the commercialization and large-scale development of hydrogen energy in the next 15 years. As a clean and efficient energy carrier, hydrogen energy can be widely used in various fields of national production. As the source of hydrogen energy production, hydrogen production by using green electrolytic water with declining cost can accelerate the commercialization of hydrogen energy as soon as possible.
It is suggested to pay attention to: (1) electrolytic cell Enterprises: Suzhou Jingli (unlisted), Tianjin mainland (unlisted), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , domestic substitution of proton exchange membrane: Dongyue Group (3) green power hydrogen production enterprises: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , etc.
Photovoltaic investment strategy: 1) the capacity release expectation of silicon link is clear, and the profit rebound logic of integrated module enterprises is clear. It is recommended to pay attention to Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ; 2) In the context of carbon neutrality goal, the state vigorously promotes the development of new energy, improves the use of photovoltaic by enterprises and users through the promotion of the whole county and green power trading, and the demand for distributed photovoltaic increases. It is suggested to pay attention to Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) ; 3) In the past 22 years, the global photovoltaic demand has continued to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , etc. benefiting from the total logic.
Investment strategy for new energy vehicles investment strategy for new energy vehicles: new energy vehicles are the only way for the road traffic sector to achieve carbon neutral in carbon neutral. It’s recommended to focus on the following investment mainlines: 1) a solid leader with global competitiveness in each of the segments: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) \ etc. 2) Second tier lithium battery enterprises of deep ploughing power and energy storage batteries: Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , etc. 3) Other basic high-quality targets of lithium battery materials: Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) , etc. 4) Leading parts benefiting from global Electrification: Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , etc. 5) New forces driven by products and leading Intelligence: Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, etc.
Risk warning: the decline of hydrogen energy cost is less than expected; The development of relevant technologies is less than expected
