The global inflation situation is grim, and investors’ concerns about inflation are also widespread in the new energy industry chain. Now, in addition to the recent hot nickel price, people from all walks of life are worried about the rising lithium price.
Recently, new energy companies represented by Tesla began a new round of price rise. Tesla China took the lead in announcing the price increase on March 15, and the prices of models such as model 3 and Y increased by 14000 yuan to 20000 yuan. Subsequently, Byd Company Limited(002594) also announced an increase in the price of new energy vehicles from 3000 yuan to 6000 yuan from March 16. Since 2022, more than 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases, and the prices of nearly 40 models have increased.
Wang Bin, CO director of automotive industry research in the Asia Pacific region of Credit Suisse, said at the 24th Credit Suisse Asia Investment Forum (AIC) that it is expected that the short-term battery price increase will continue, or further increase by 20% in the second quarter, and the vehicle price may also increase slightly. However, in the medium and long term, technological progress will still drive down the cost. For example, Weilai automobile announced the official launch of the ternary lithium iron standard battery pack, which uses the mixed packaging of ternary lithium formula and lithium iron phosphate formula to reduce the battery cost. In addition, CTP (cell to pack) technology and CTC battery system (cell to chassis) also help reduce costs.
long term penetration of new energy vehicles increased
The global penetration of new energy vehicles is accelerating. According to the statistical analysis of auto home, in 2021, the registered sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world was 6.514 million, an increase of 108% over 2020, and the penetration rate reached 10.2%.
According to the latest data released by the passenger Federation in March, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 317000 in February, with a year-on-year increase of 189.1% and a month on month decrease of 24.1%, which is less than that in previous years. Affected by the price rise, the orders of new energy passenger vehicles were weak in late January, but there was a significant recovery in February, with retail sales reaching 272000, a year-on-year increase of 180.5%. In February, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China was 21.8%, 13 percentage points higher than the penetration rate of 8.1% in February 2021.
The upstream price rise is fierce, but Credit Suisse research team latest predicts that the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 73% in 2030, up sharply from 62% previously predicted. At the same time, the agency predicts that the global demand for electric vehicle batteries will also reach 280 million kilowatt hours (TWH) in 2030, a significant increase over the previously predicted 1.8 TWH, which means that the global battery demand will rise at a compound annual growth rate of 28% from 2021 to 2030, which is amazing.
According to the reporter’s recent interview and research, due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials such as lithium carbonate, the cost of power battery, which accounts for the largest part of the whole vehicle cost, has soared. Battery giants such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and others have raised prices, transmitting the pressure to new energy vehicle enterprises, which in turn transmit the pressure to consumers. At present, it is a critical period for downstream auto enterprises to seize market share. Therefore, even if the competitive middle and downstream enterprises raise prices, they often belong to “making money at a loss”.
In addition to the surge in lithium prices, nickel prices have also attracted attention recently. However, Wang Bin told reporters that nickel supply has been in surplus all year round. Even if Russia’s export volume is removed, it will still be in a more balanced state. “Nickel sulfide is used in the production of battery cathode, accounting for 6% ~ 7% of the battery cost. Therefore, the nickel price needs to soar a lot before it can lead to a little increase in the battery price. At present, the problem is not big.”
Wang Bin also believes that the technological progress in the past few years will also promote the rapid decline of battery costs and make new energy vehicles more popular. This trend will continue in the future, and the short-term price rise is still a small episode.
In terms of technological innovation, for example, on September 23 last year, Weilai automobile announced the official launch of the ternary lithium iron standard battery pack. The battery pack adopts the mixed loading method of ternary lithium formula and lithium iron phosphate formula. Compared with the old 70 kilowatt hour (KWH) battery pack, the capacity is increased by 5kwh, the cycle life is improved, and the mixed loading method also reduces the cost.
At present, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and lithium ternary (NCM) batteries occupy an absolute advantage. Due to their inherent physical and chemical characteristics, there are obvious long sectors and short sectors in both LFP and NCM. Among them, the advantage of LFP lies in its relatively high safety and low cost, but its performance is poor in winter; On the contrary, although NCM has the advantages of high energy density and better low temperature in winter than LFP, its high activity also brings high safety risks. With the soaring price of lithium, the market share of LFP may rise in the short term and become the first choice for more models. Ruixin currently predicts that the market share of LFP may reach 67% (only 38% in 2020) in 2025, and the global market share of LFP will also reach 15% in 2025 and 0 in 2020.
In addition, technological innovation also includes changes in battery pack design. Wang Bin said that CTP (no module) technology can reduce the cost by 30%, while CTC battery system can reduce the cost by 5% ~ 10%. It may be available in the second quarter of 2022. At the same time, in order to increase the market share, vehicle manufacturers do not rule out controlling the price increase or discount. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the judgment of increasing the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will not change.
institutions are optimistic about upstream lithium resources and midstream materials
For investment institutions, most institutions are still optimistic about the opportunities of the new energy industry chain in 2022, especially the upstream lithium resources and midstream materials.
Gu Jiayuan, director of equity research and fund manager of Futon China, told China business that looking forward to the growth stock investment in 2022, many investors are worried that the growth rate of new energy vehicle penetration will slow down after rapidly increasing to 20%, but after a wave of correction, the previously overvalued new energy vehicle sector seems to show configuration value again.
\u3000\u3000 “Last year’s valuation was a bit exaggerated, because according to the calculation, the compound growth of this track in the next five years was 30%, but it fell to today’s position and began to become more optimistic. Although some people began to worry about the slowdown after the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rapidly increased to 20%, taking mobile phones as an example, when the penetration rate of smart phones was 20% ~ 50%, the growth rate of stock price and performance was the fastest. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to increase to a higher level The level of up to 100% is not excluded. “
At the same time, different from the photovoltaic industry that depends on the rate of return at the 2B end, the biggest difference in the 2C end new energy vehicle industry chain is to look at the products. “Electric vehicles give people a better user experience, and better products will create demand. Jobs said at that time, ‘we don’t need to do market research, because people don’t know what they want before they see good things’.” Gu Jiayuan said.
Guo Chen, fund manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan, told reporters that the ability of new energy vehicle enterprises to launch more and more consumer goods that consumers are willing to pay is one of the core factors to promote the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of the whole industry. The high crude oil price may be a turning point to further promote the development of new energy.
Gu Jiayuan said that one of the most promising themes this year is the upstream lithium resources and midstream materials of new energy. “There are concerns that lithium is too expensive, but if you look at Yabao, the world’s largest supplier of lithium products, its average price of lithium resources is not expensive. Some 200000 or even 500000 are more single events or loose orders, which is not so exaggerated. In addition, midstream materials will also have many opportunities this year, such as high nickel ternary cathode, which are very important materials for electric vehicles, which can increase the energy density of batteries Degrees. “
