taking into account long-term concept and short-term market style
fund investment adviser Multi Strategy response to volatile market
China Fund News reporter Zhang Yanbei
Since the beginning of 2022, the market has continued to fluctuate and adjust, especially in March. Affected by the international political and economic situation, a new round of depressed market has spread from zhonggai shares to the whole Hong Kong stock market, and it is difficult for the A-share market to stay out. This is the critical moment for investors to usher in the test, and it is also an important opportunity for professional institutional investors to show their talents in fund investment advisory services.
In the context of the weakening of the profit-making effect of the stock and bond market, many institutions adhere to the long-term concept, give due consideration to the short-term market style, adopt differentiated strategies for different types of portfolios, and strive to balance the portfolio income, risk and liquidity. While providing customers with highly adaptable products, investment advisory institutions also actively carry out various forms of investor companionship and education, which has achieved remarkable results in improving the profitability experience of the foundation and optimizing investment behavior.
Respondents generally said that from the perspective of customer redemption behavior, more investors can rationally deal with market fluctuations. Through sincere and professional services, at this stage, the investment advisory business of many institutional funds operates smoothly, and the good profit experience it brings will continue to guide investors to repurchase and form a virtuous circle.
investment adviser portfolio fluctuation is relatively controllable
Under the market environment of overall shock adjustment of the market, respondents generally said that the fluctuation of their fund investment adviser portfolio was relatively controllable. Through the differential adjustment of the combination of different risk return characteristics, the investment adviser combination better reflects the value of asset allocation in the volatile market.
“Since the beginning of the year, there have been significant changes in both index trend and theme style compared with last year.” The person in charge of Yinhua Fund investment consulting business said frankly that from the perspective of the industry, coal stocks stand out, and real estate, construction, banking and other industries are relatively resistant to decline, while military industry, home appliances and electronics, food and beverage and other industries have the highest decline, and the gap between the rise and fall of the first and last industry indexes is close to 40 percentage points. The correctness of industry configuration largely determines the overall performance of the portfolio.
The head of Yinhua Fund investment advisory business further said that in such a downward market, if the investment advisory portfolio wants to avoid risks by significantly reducing the proportion of equity allocation, it is not operable. Because the adjustment space of equity position in the investment advisory portfolio with clear strategic positioning is small. Therefore, the person believes that the differential allocation of theme industries has become an important source of excess returns.
“However, for the fund investment advisory institutions, especially the portfolio strategy established last year, whether it is due to the insufficient prediction of such extreme style conversion market or the consideration of configuration equalization, it may not be significantly over allocated to industries such as coal and real estate, resulting in the failure of some authorized investment advisory portfolios to outperform the benchmark since this year.”
Although the short-term performance may not be satisfactory, in the view of the person in charge, the operation concept of balanced configuration and low turnover rate adopted by the investment advisory portfolio should be adhered to for a long time. In view of this year’s market situation, he believes that what fund investment advisory institutions should strengthen is to give due consideration to the short-term market style while adhering to the long-term concept, and deal with the relationship between value investment and trend investment. The focus is to grasp the length and length.
For the overall performance of the investment advisory portfolio in the near future, Yang Zhe, general manager of asset allocation Department of GF, said that the performance of different types of investment advisory portfolios is different. “For example, the” fixed income + “investment advisory portfolio with the goal of financial substitution can resist market fluctuations to a certain extent due to the low proportion of equity funds allocated, which is more resistant to decline. While the partial equity investment advisory portfolio is affected by the average loss of 15% of equity funds, it is inevitable to face a certain withdrawal.”
“For the fund investment consulting business,” referring to the method of dealing with the sharp fluctuation of the market during the operation of the investment portfolio, Yang zhe said that first, we should do a good job in the risk appropriateness matching of customers through KYC questionnaire, including pre matching and post tracking, and reveal the risks to customers so that customers can find an investment consulting portfolio that meets their investment objectives.
She also pointed out that in the investment, we should improve the cost performance of the investment, so as to enhance the customer’s sense of holding experience. For example, in the “fixed income +” portfolio, pay more attention to indicators such as withdrawal, so that customers can reduce anxiety; In the partial stock portfolio, we should control the volatility and withdrawal of the portfolio, and pursue the stability of long-term excess return rather than the elasticity of short-term return, so as to enhance the confidence of customers and prolong the holding period.
According to relevant sources of Huaxia wealth, most investment advisory portfolios of Huaxia wealth respond to market fluctuations and changes in a balanced way, and most investment advisory portfolios will not be exposed too much on a single track. “Since this year’s portfolio adjustment is relatively balanced, we still believe that there is a certain difference between the traditional portfolio adjustment and the investment adviser’s portfolio adjustment. Therefore, we have adhered to the traditional portfolio adjustment method.”
Harvest wealth believes that the biggest difficulty of investment advisers this year is “how to improve customers’ investment experience through investment advisory services in a market environment where the profit-making effect is weakened and the volatility is increasing.” Helping customers make real money is the fundamental goal of investment consulting business. To this end, harvest wealth this year mainly focuses on the following two aspects to improve the customer experience.
First, help investors form more long-term oriented investment behavior by building investment advisory strategies, such as providing fund investment advisory portfolio services with holding period settings and guiding customers to develop good investment habits. Second, provide considerate service and company. By carrying out various forms of investment and teaching activities, including online live broadcasting and offline sharing, harvest wealth provides customers with high-quality companion services.
In view of the overall performance of its investment advisory portfolio during the year, the Investment Advisory Department of China Merchants Fund also said that the portfolio better reflected the value of asset allocation in the volatile market. Specifically, the investment consulting department of China Merchants Fund introduced that for low wave varieties, the efficiency is improved through the risk dispersion of stock debt ratio and style assets, and for high wave dynamic partial stock combinations, the fluctuation is controlled to a certain extent by maintaining an appropriate and balanced allocation between style and industry.
In addition to fund companies, some third-party fund sales institutions with pilot qualification of investment advisers are also taking action. It is understood that on the personal financial investment advisory service platform – “wait a minute”, one of the main long-term investment advisory strategies of “four sums of money” is the “Long Win plan”, and its principal will give corresponding buy and sell signals when there is a good allocation opportunity in the market according to the valuation, market sentiment and trading opportunity.
\u3000\u3000 “For example, the recently sold dividends, environmental protection, oil and gas, convertible bonds and other varieties that have brought substantial profits to customers come from the long win plan’s resolute position building at the low level of these varieties in the past, and finally through the bull and bear to sell at the high level to obtain high returns. The calm and rational behavior of the customers of the long win plan you observed is based on the many anti human operations of the long win plan and the continuous positive feedback it finally brings Yes. ” Yingmi Fund said.
investors accompany and effectively optimize investment behavior
“Three investment and seven investment”. Investor education and company are important contents of investment consulting business.
In the face of the shock market, investment advisory institutions have done a series of relevant work through text, pictures, small videos, live broadcast and other media, and achieved great results. According to the feedback of the interviewed institutions and people, the behavior of investors is becoming more and more rational.
As yingmi Fund pointed out, one of the core tasks of investment advisers is actually investment and teaching, that is, through various ways of investment and teaching to help customers establish correct investment ideas, and get the trust of customers through continuous practice and positive feedback.
\u3000\u3000 “In the daily investor education, our managers will share the investment principles and popular knowledge of financial management with customers to improve their financial literacy. In addition, when the market is low, we will output a series of articles to accompany customers through the panic period and anxiety period and help customers stay. For example, since the beginning of 2022, the overall index of zhonggai shares has fallen by nearly 70% due to the influence of policy and international situation Sincerely and rationally analyze and communicate with customers, help customers understand the current situation of this variety and the problems they will face in the future, and greatly alleviate customers’ anxiety. ” Introduction to yingmi fund.
In fact, the more cautious the behavior of investors is, the more different it is from that of other platforms. Although the market is not good at present, during this period, the “customer’s enthusiasm” is not decreasing. In the message area of the “official account”, the official customer base is not miserable and complaining, some are warm and rational.
In terms of fund companies, the investment consulting department of China Merchants Fund said that there was no obvious abnormal operation behavior of customers during the period. During the period of intensified market shock, the company carried out accompanying services through online live broadcasting, publishing investment and teaching articles and strategic operation reports, and provided timely and detailed answers to customers who took the initiative to consult.
According to the feedback of fund companies, some investment advisory products were bought “against the market” when there were large fluctuations. According to the person in charge of Yinhua Fund investment advisory business, the operation data of investment advisory business shows that the scale of the company’s investment advisory assets also increased in the week from March 14 to 18, which is quite different from the data of net subscription of a single fund product.
In the view of the person in charge, this aspect shows that investment advisory investors are relatively more rational in the volatile market because their products are more suitable for themselves. On the other hand, the high-frequency company of investment advisers increases investors’ trust and stickiness. Referring to the practice of investment advisory company, he said, “at present, our investment advisory company mainly includes daily, weekly and monthly market analysis, investment advisory class, investor Q & A and other forms. Among them, the market analysis will be displayed in the form of text, pictures, small videos or live broadcast. In addition, investor Q & A is also an important means of company.”
Boshi fund is unremittingly committed to the company of investors. Every day, Boshi fund will output effective views and content, involving text, pictures, audio, video, live broadcast and other forms. Among them, when the market hot spots, such as medicine, military industry and other industry sectors rise or fall greatly, they output the investment and research views as content carriers through short videos, live broadcasts and other forms popular with investors.
Huaxia fortune pointed out that from the perspective of fund sales, customers’ subscription behavior was greatly affected. The number of subscription of a single fund fell into the freezing point, almost the same as the low point in 2018, but customers’ redemption behavior decreased significantly compared with that in 2018. More customers understood the characteristics of long-term holding of equity products and were able to deal with market fluctuations rationally.
The official account of China’s wealth is to provide customers with full range of services through online and offline services. Online services such as investor education, market interpretation and psychological interpretation are mainly provided through WeChat public numbers, video roadshows and live broadcast. While offline customers adhere to the form of weekly communication with targeted customers for face-to-face communication and emotional counseling. On the one hand, Huaxia wealth interprets the main reasons for the market adjustment since this year for investors. On the other hand, it outputs correct investment ideas to investors, including long-term holding concept, presence is more important than timing, allocation is more important than selection, so that investors can hold patiently. At the same time, it also helps some investors optimize their position portfolio and improve their holding experience.
The recent market adjustment has brought psychological pressure and even anxiety to investors. Therefore, gf’s investment advisory team also closely combined with market dynamics and provided investors with a number of accompanying contents, including new year’s letters in the first week after the festival and timely release of market change comments on volatile trading days, so as to provide investors with professional and timely market analysis and sentiment guidance.
\u3000\u3000 “In addition, the investment advisory team of GF also continuously outputs investment and teaching contents on how to understand market fluctuations and how to reasonably deal with fluctuations in the weekly, monthly and educational columns of investment advisers, so as to help investors establish a mature and stable knowledge system. On the whole, the investment advisory team provides investors with all-round and warm professional investment advisory services through systematic investment and teaching and continuous company, which has been widely recognized by investors 。” Introduction of relevant person in charge of investment advisory business of GF.
Harvest wealth said that after research, it was found that the direct reason why “funds earn money but basic people don’t earn money” is that investors “can’t control it”. Therefore, harvest investment advisers also pay great attention to the guidance of investor behavior. The whole market first promotes the fund investment adviser portfolio with holding period to guide investors to invest in the products of excellent managers for a long time without being troubled by short-term market fluctuations.
At present, harvest investment consulting mainly provides investment consulting services to customers in two ways. One is to provide direct services to customers of self operated platforms, and provide complete investment advisory services throughout the investment cycle through direct contact with customers; Second, as an investment advisory licensed institution, it cooperates with excellent fund sales institutions in the whole market, outputs the company’s professional strategy and portfolio management ability to them, and provides consulting services suitable for licensed sales institutions to serve customers together with sales institutions.
Therefore, according to the personalized financial needs of investors and the new changes in the market, harvest’s investment advisory portfolio mainly focuses on the two categories of “value-added research and selection” and “necessary for interest generation”. Among them, “value-added research and selection” accounts closely follow the equity market, and use partial equity funds to help investors capture future investment opportunities and obtain relatively high returns within the scope of controllable risk. For such strategies, if we do a good job in the code of conduct and institutional arrangements, we can guide customers to prolong the holding period and significantly improve the probability of customers making money in the long term.
The other type of account is called “interest earning necessity”. The strategy under this type of account either focuses on the bond investment fund portfolio, or adopts the “fixed income +” scheme of mixed allocation of equity and bond funds, or selects the determined income fund that obtains the market alpha income through transaction hedging, and is committed to obtaining relatively stable investment return and striving to achieve better risk adjusted income.
fund investment consulting business has made steady progress
In the current volatile market, the fund investment consulting business of many companies has operated steadily, and some have achieved remarkable results. At present, many companies are still making efforts to the investment consulting business, and are committed to better optimizing investment behavior and improving the profit experience of Jimin.
Since the CSRC approved the pilot work of public fund investment consulting business in October 2019, the fund investment consulting pilot has been running smoothly for more than two years. Harvest wealth, as one of the first pilot institutions to obtain the qualification of public fund investment advisory business, actively explored new business forms of fund investment advisory, expanded the boundary of investment advisory service, and realized the steady growth of investment advisory scale and the number of customers.
By the fourth quarter of 2021, the re investment rate of direct customers of self owned platform services was nearly 60%. Among them, as of December 2021, the yield of harvest fortune shenlu 1 portfolio has reached 60.43% since the start date of operation (March 10, 2020); The yield of Taurus portfolio has reached 74.09% since the start date of operation (December 24, 2019).
The whole business process of investment advisory of Boshi fund is implemented at the direct selling end of Boshi. At present, the functional construction of the investment advisory area has been completed and the complete link of investment advisory services has been realized. Boshi fund has built a special investment advisory area in Boshi direct sales app, earnestly fulfill the obligation of sales appropriateness, fully understand the portrait of customers, deeply evaluate customers’ risk identification ability, risk tolerance and investment objectives, and provide customers with Boshi investment advisory portfolio strategy in line with their risk identification ability and risk tolerance ability.
Specifically, Boshi fund investment advisory business is customer-centered and Boshi fund app is the carrier to analyze customer portraits, formulate portfolio recommendation strategies and implement investment companionship. At the bottom, the it middle office provides account and asset query, the investment advisory system provides sales configuration, and the new investment decision system provides strategy management.
Through a complete life-cycle companion system, Boshi fund can provide customers with more comprehensive and efficient companion services: when the market is volatile and customers’ emotions are most unstable, Boshi fund can timely provide customers with professional interpretation and “psychological massage” to help customers understand market fluctuations; When the customer is unclear about the return, provide the customer with a detailed report to let the investors understand their account changes and income status. In the above scenario section, accompanying services before and after investment will be carried out.
Under the long-term guidance and company of relevant business departments of the company, many companies have achieved remarkable results in investment consulting business. For example, from the perspective of yingmi’s “wait a minute” platform user fund trading, the net subscription amount has maintained a net inflow since the beginning of this year, especially in the past month, and the net inflow rate has exceeded the inflow rate at the high level of the market, reflecting the very rational operation behavior of wait a minute investment consulting customers.
The person in charge of Yinhua Fund investment consulting business said, “Since the investment consulting exhibition, the company has promoted the investment consulting business to be launched on three cooperation platforms, and strive to produce high-quality content accompanied by nutritious investors. We hope to cultivate our internal skills, including investment ability and customer service ability. Serving existing users well and improving user satisfaction are our medium-term goals. As of March 18, the scale of investment consultants has exceeded 500 million and the number of customers is close to 50000.”
Some companies are actively expanding their business and trying in many ways. Investment advisor of China Merchants Fund was in the initial stage in October 2021. In the early stage, it is hoped that customers can gradually get familiar with and understand the fund investment advisory service through strategy configuration and investment advisory service. Therefore, at this stage, the construction of strategy is more based on the needs of customer segmentation, especially the segmentation of low-risk and medium-risk customers, so as to carry out more appropriate investment advisory strategy matching for customers with different risk tolerance.
The Investment Advisory Department of China Merchants Fund said that the company’s investment advisory business has been officially exhibited for nearly half a year. From the beginning, it has adhered to the concept of protecting the interests of investors, adhered to the stable strategy of low volatility as the focus of operation and promotion, and paid more attention to the customer’s investment experience instead of sales. Various strategies have been successively launched on Tiantian fund, caicaitong, yingmi, land fund and other platforms. At present, the operation is relatively stable. In the same period, we have also connected with a number of cooperation channels, and some will be launched in the near future.
prepare for a new round of revision
fund investment advisory business continues to upgrade
China Fund News reporter Lu Huijing
2022 can be described as the “big year” for fund investment advisers. Not only have many institutions announced that they will be exhibiting or will be exhibiting, becoming the “new force” in this field, but also the institutions that have carried out business are actively carrying out a new round of revision, so as to upgrade the investment advisory services and better meet the needs of investors.
The reporter found that, unlike the previous direct display of investment consulting strategies to investors, the current display mode of investment consulting portfolio on major platforms has been changed to card display mode. Investors need to fill in a questionnaire according to their actual situation before they can view their own investment consulting strategy portfolio.
In the view of insiders, strengthening the investment demand and risk tolerance of matching customers is one of the purposes of the buyer’s investment adviser. After the revision is completed, it will be more in line with the original intention of the investment adviser business.
fund investment adviser’s presentation mode is quietly updated
investors need to receive investment demand survey first
Investors who are concerned about fund investment business are not hard to find that the recent fund investment page on Alipay and other platforms has been quietly revised.
In the past, the shelf display method has been replaced by the card display method. Investors need to fill in a questionnaire according to their actual situation before they can see the investment consulting strategy combination suitable for them.
As the main fund sales organization on the Alipay platform, the head of the ant fund management housekeeper explained the three main directions of the revision: first, investors first chose to invest in institutions, and then the agencies carried out sufficient investment needs assessment for them, and matched more suitable investment Gu Celve. Second, the investment advisory strategy of less than one year shows the performance comparison benchmark, and the maximum pullback and other risk indicators are added for the strategy of more than one year; Third, open up more technical service capabilities, support investment advisory institutions to conduct personalized investment demand assessment, more fully display their own asset allocation and investment advisory service characteristics, and do better accompanying advisory services. At present, the number of ant fund managers has increased to more than 10.
Major fund investment advisory institutions also interpreted the considerations behind the new round of revision. Harvest wealth said that the revision reflects the new upgrading of the business model and customer concept since the launch of the fund investment advisory business. First, it is a more accurate analysis and touch of the customer needs from “focusing on me” to “changing because of you”. Through the customer questionnaire, form a more accurate customer portrait for customers through financial technology and big data, and then accurately recommend the investment consulting strategy according to the customer positioning, which is the upgrade of version 2.0 of the fund investment consulting business.
The relevant person in charge of the investment advisory business of GF Fund believes that this revision is more in line with the original intention of the investment advisory business. Through the research on the investment demand of investors (KYC), then matching the appropriate fund portfolio strategy for investors, and finally providing the whole process of accompanying services in the process of investors’ holding to help investors improve their investment income, this is the complete chain of the investment advisory business. This revision enables investors to intuitively feel the difference between investment advisory business and traditional fund sales from the process, and highlights the professionalism of investment and the temperature of investment advisory.
In the view of the investment consulting department of China Merchants Fund, strengthening the matching of customers’ investment needs and risk tolerance is one of the purposes of the buyer’s investment consultant. This revision is the embodiment of strengthening this purpose, avoiding recommending services to customers in the traditional shelf mode, and embedding the concept of “customer care” into the investment service cycle. The specific approach is to provide KYC questionnaire, and the platform matches and presents a single investment consulting strategy according to the questionnaire results of customers.
The person in charge of Yinhua Fund investment advisory business said that the revised investment advisory portfolio area is different from the shelf mode of the fund supermarket. Instead of recommending a single portfolio strategy, it is revised into a small program mode. After entering, you need to conduct KYC questionnaire before you can see the products suitable for you. This is to be closer to the essence of investment advisory services, that is, investment advisory institutions perform fund investment advisory obligations to their own investment advisory customers and customize exclusive investment advisory strategies for different groups. This requires a more comprehensive understanding of customers, including risk tolerance, investment objectives, planned holding time, etc., and then provide investors with fund investment adviser portfolio strategies that meet their risk identification and tolerance. The ultimate goal of the fund is to reduce investors’ fear of making money by recommending the fund to investors.
live interactive, telephone communication, information push
investment advisory institutions try a variety of new ways to reach customers
In addition to the revision of the online investment advisory portfolio, many of the second batch of fund investment advisory institutions have entered into formal operation this year. As a still relatively new business, how to effectively reach investors is one of the important issues in front of many fund investment advisers.
According to Boshi fund, the investment advisory business of Boshi fund mainly spreads the Boshi investment advisory brand through direct sales and cooperative sales institutions to reach investment advisory investors. At the same time, carry out marketing promotion on the platform of direct sales and cooperative sales institutions.
According to the feedback from the investment consulting department of China Merchants Fund, offline contact with customers is the most effective way, followed by live interaction, telephone communication, information push, etc. At present, the company mainly focuses on live broadcasting, telephone and information push, and also tries to explore a more direct offline touch mode under the premise of legal compliance.
The person in charge of Yinhua Fund’s investment advisory business admitted that the current investment advisers can no longer attract investors through performance. The most effective way to reach is to cultivate their internal skills and truly let investors recognize the investment advisory brand, investment advisory portfolio strategy and investment advisory services. At the same time, from the perspective of investors, develop their suitable and recognized investment consulting investment methods, such as departure type fixed investment or target profit combination.
Although China’s fund investment advisory business has only started for more than two years, it has harvested a service asset scale of more than 50 billion yuan and served about 2.5 million investors. Referring to the personal experience of more than two years, many institutions believe that compared with the “care” link, they still need to make more efforts in the “investment”, pay more attention to the user’s profit experience and provide long-term companion services to investors.
Harvest wealth believes that at present, China’s fund investment advisers are mainly online intelligent investment advisers, which maintain professionalism in “investment”, but are easy to be lacking in “investment”. “Three investment and seven investment” has increasingly become an industry consensus that determines the competitiveness of fund investment advisers. Therefore, Gu is very important and easy to be ignored. Overseas investment advisers have developed for many years. More than half of the value-added investment advisers give customers comes from behavior management. According to the internal statistics of harvest Wealth: first, the average holding period of Investment Advisory customers reaches 290 days, which is much more than the normal 90 days and three months; Second, the proportion of interests held by customers is higher, about 50%. Third, the holding time is longer and more interests are held. The interests have brought good returns to everyone in history, and customers will have better benefits. Therefore, it is very important to pay attention to customer behavior in “Gu”.
The person in charge of Yinhua Fund investment consulting business also said that at present, the fund investment consulting business is still in the initial exploration stage. The biggest difference between fund investment consulting and product sales is that the former has thousands of people and thousands of faces. Each investor has different situations and needs different investment consulting portfolio strategies. At the same time, “Gu” in investment consulting also includes personalized configuration and lasting accompanying services. Personalized configuration can appropriately adjust the combination of investors within a certain central range according to different investors’ funds and different sensitivities to market ups and downs, so as to make investors hold more comfortable. Therefore, the ability of financial technology is particularly important, and the support of digital ability needs to be gradually increased, We are also improving and perfecting in this direction.
Yingmi Fund said, “for the development of fund investment advisers in the future, the most important and difficult thing is to do a good job in the word ‘buyer’ of ‘buyer investment adviser’. That is, we often say that the buyer’s position requires investment advisers to consider from the perspective of customers and always put the interests of customers first. This is the underlying logic of the establishment of the business model of ‘buyer investment adviser’.”
Yingmi Fund believes that only under the correct customer-centered values, the organizational structure and assessment system of the institution are also important starting points to help the investment advisory business grow. The organizational system and assessment mechanism should also be changed accordingly. If an organization’s structure and assessment system still stay in the era of product-oriented, it is impossible to do a good job in investment advisory services. You can’t find the Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) .
“The future improvement direction of the fund investment advisory business still hopes to have two-way interaction with customers and obtain customers’ needs and experience in the most direct way, so as to further improve our services.” The Investment Advisory Department of China Merchants Fund also talked about its own views.
market with high wind and fierce waves
many investment advisory institutions believe that the medium and long-term dimension can be positive
China Fund News reporter Fang Li
Under the influence of multiple adverse factors outside China, a shares, Hong Kong shares and China concept shares have been significantly adjusted since March. After Jinwen will stabilize market expectations, the sharp decline mode is switched to shock mode, but there is still great uncertainty.
In this context, in the face of the “high wind and fierce waves” market, how should investors deal with it? The reporter of China fund daily interviewed fund investment advisory institutions from Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places. These people believe that in the medium and long term, we can cherish the current point of A-Shares and be more positive; Some people also believe that it is more difficult for basic people to choose the base, timing and allocation. It is suggested that investors balance income and risk and allocate them in a balanced manner through asset allocation and appropriate dispersion.
multiple factors triggered this year’s shock
the fastest time for the impact of risk appetite has passed
Referring to the current market, harvest wealth said that before this year, China’s stock market was actually in the state of structural bull market for three years. The structural bull market was generally reflected as a partial bull market in some growth industries represented by gem last year. There are four main clues that affect the trend of the capital market this year.
\u3000\u3000 “First, the expectation of steady growth has increased, and the market has switched between high and low values. Second, the contraction of overseas liquidity and the reversal of global expectations of tightening US dollar liquidity caused by the US dollar interest rate hike. Third, international geopolitical conflicts have affected geopolitical risk concerns and risk appetite. Fourth, coupled with the interference of the recent Chinese epidemic, key cities have entered a comprehensive blockade, which has further exacerbated investors’ concerns about China’s economic operation and China’s development Fundamental concerns. ” Harvest wealth stakeholders said that the continuous killing and killing has a more obvious suppression on the judgment of fundamentals and the overall risk appetite.
However, the above-mentioned people believe that the periodic impact has reached a high point. Under the accumulation of these four factors, it should be a gradual economic recovery in the future, but the fastest time for the impact of risk appetite has passed.
The head of Yinhua Fund investment consulting business said that the first thing to pay attention to in 2022 is the actual effect of the “steady growth” policy. When the policy has continued to pick up, the fundamental data has not improved significantly, which is also one of the reasons for this round of decline; In addition, whether the trend of the epidemic can be effectively controlled will also affect investor sentiment in stages; Finally, we need to pay close attention to how the geopolitical conflict is interpreted, how the final result is and whether it will increase the spread of global inflation and how capital flows change. It is difficult to predict in this regard, and we can only judge after there are preliminary results.
“The decline of the market since this year is the result of the joint action of internal and external factors.” Wang Zhaoxin, an equity expert at yingmi Fund Research Institute, said that on the one hand, the average annual increase of equity assets from 2019 to 2021 was much higher than the historical average, and there was pressure of mean return. The market structure has also reached the extreme differentiation. After the two-year relay rise of core assets and track stocks, the valuation difference between industries has reached the highest point in 10 years.
Wang Zhaoxin said that there are two main external factors: first, since the beginning of 2022, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates has been rapidly fermented, and global risky assets, including US stocks, need to digest the adjustment brought by the more than expected tightening, which is inevitable; Another point is the emergence of the black swan of geopolitics. Although the Russian Ukrainian war has little impact on China at the level of economy and people’s livelihood, as part of the changing situation in the world, the Russian Ukrainian war finally needs to be priced at the level of China US relations to affect the landing. In addition to the above internal and external resonance, some unique characteristics of A-Shares (trading mechanism, position restrictions of public offering institutions, etc.) have amplified the negative feedback effect of decline, which has always led to such a situation in the market trend. However, Wang Zhaoxin believes that at present, these factors, including marginal improvement and uncertainty, cannot be said to have been completely eliminated.
Yang Zhe, general manager of asset allocation Department of GF, also said that this year, the market is still in a market with intensified volatility and structural differentiation. In such a market environment, it is more difficult for investors to make money. If the centralized allocation is single, it may face great fluctuation risk. Therefore, it is suggested that investors should be properly dispersed and balanced allocation to avoid excessive fluctuation, which leads to anxiety and irrational investment behavior.
Boshi fund is relatively optimistic. It believes that this year’s market trend will “seek progress while maintaining stability”, and so should the investment strategy: “stability” is reflected in holding the core track affecting China’s development in the next 5-10 years, “progress” is reflected in “selecting the best from the best” and looking for “innovation in innovation” on the basis of these high-quality tracks.
actively adjust the investment advisory portfolio
added warehouse growth style products
Under the sharp shock of A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks, many fund companies are also actively adjusting their investment consulting strategies, and some portfolios have increased their growth style.
Talking about the future, Huaxia wealth bluntly said that at present, the subdivided fields are more optimistic about the growth style, and the fund managers of most equity funds are also optimistic about the growth industries and sectors. After market adjustment, the valuation of the growth sector has reached a reasonable level. If the market is divided into growth and value, the value mainly benefits from the phased investment opportunities of steady growth, but from the medium and long-term perspective, the investment opportunities of growth are greater. Therefore, after the market adjustment, many portfolios of Huaxia wealth have begun to adjust their positions and increase their positions moderately recently.
For the next 12 months, harvest wealth also believes that the undervalued Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 are volatile upward markets. The growth stocks represented by the gem and the science and innovation board are generally volatile markets and volatile markets as a whole. These growth industries are collectively referred to as track stocks. Track stocks represent some industries with relatively high structural growth in the process of China’s economy from high growth to medium and low growth, such as new energy, semiconductor, military industry and biomedical services.
Relatively speaking, some fund investment advisers prefer balanced allocation.
The person in charge of the investment advisory business of Yinhua Fund said that the construction of the investment advisory portfolio will continue to adhere to the operation concept of balanced allocation and low turnover rate. The theme of “steady growth” with relatively leading performance this year and the early track stocks with obvious correction will be allocated, but the allocation proportion in different directions will be adjusted according to the phased market changes. The industry strategy is based on the certainty of short-term performance and relatively high outlook, with balanced allocation.
\u3000\u3000 “In the short term, the economic downturn and the tightening policy of the Federal Reserve put pressure on the growth sector. However, with the further decline of the valuation of some high boom tracks, the cost performance will gradually rise. We should closely track the performance changes in the first quarter. At the same time, we also need to pay attention to the marginal improvement of the tightening of the Federal Reserve and the sustainability of China’s credit expansion. At present, considering the accelerated switching of market style, it is suggested to build the investment portfolio with a more balanced style 。” Yang Zhe, general manager of asset allocation Department of GF, also said.
“After Jinwen has stabilized market expectations, the sharp decline mode is switched to shock mode, but the uncertainty is still great.” Wang Zhaoxin, an equity expert at yingmi Fund Research Institute, is optimistic about the industry that takes into account low-risk characteristics and profit improvement: first, the dilemma reversal industry: pigs. Second, policy margin improvement: there are still opportunities in the real estate industry chain;, Steady growth is expected to increase under the spread of the epidemic, and infrastructure construction includes to g-end public construction. Third, high-quality Internet enterprises can be arranged on the left. Many leading enterprises are still the most competitive enterprises in China.
Wang Zhaoxin also said that the construction of the fund investment adviser’s portfolio will adopt the balance strategy of core + satellite, focus on the left layout, and try to help customers smooth the fluctuation of the net worth curve. It is not only necessary to ensure customers’ holding experience and avoid customers’ mistakes, but also consider the fault-tolerant mechanism in the extreme case of the “black swan event”.
In addition, relevant persons from the investment consulting department of China Merchants Fund said that there are many uncertain factors inside and outside the market this year. Overseas is mainly the liquidity contraction and geopolitical evolution under the stagflation environment. China is mainly the gradual realization of the steady growth policy under the influence of the downward pressure of the economy and the epidemic. In the process of valuation pressure, it is not recommended to bet on track investment. On the basis of balanced allocation, bottom-up enterprise profit and value mining are carried out.
“In terms of investment, we can pay due attention to the context of adverse reverse investment, such as the price undervaluation reversal varieties under the stable growth policy, the profit revision varieties after the return of high boom track valuation, and the varieties with the resonance between dual carbon transformation and stable growth.” These people said.
can be more active now
How should investors operate in the face of the fierce market? Maybe the key word is “calm down, keep hope and be positive”.
“Financial markets, like life itself, are reincarnation. When bubbles are crazy, they need to be rational and keep hope in the dark.” Wang Zhaoxin, an equity expert at yingmi Fund Research Institute, said that this year’s investment may be much more difficult than in the past three years, but maintaining a long-term thinking will help to pass the panic period and anxiety period in short-term fluctuations and better realize the appreciation and preservation of wealth.
At present, many institutions can be more active, cherish the investment opportunities brought by market adjustment, and even increase their positions appropriately. For example, the person in charge of the investment advisory business of Yinhua Fund said frankly that first of all, standing at the current time point, it is suggested that most ordinary investors can choose to cherish the medium and long-term investment opportunities adjusted by the market and do a good job in medium and long-term allocation. At the same time, it is suggested that investors treat the investment advisory portfolio for the purpose of long-term company and dilute the short-term performance.
Huaxia wealth has special suggestions for two investors. First, for the holders of low volatility portfolio, it said that the extreme pullback generally occurs only once in many years. This pullback has been very large. For investors holding such portfolio, it is not recommended to redeem at the current time point, but should be firmly held for a long time.
Second, the holders of high volatility portfolio said that since the beginning of this year, the highest point of equity fund index has retreated by 21%, and the retreating range is also the largest level since 2019. Therefore, the holding experience of customers is not very good, but there are still relatively large opportunities in the future after fluctuations. From the current time point to the end of the year, the probability of positive return of equity investment is still relatively high, so investors with high volatility portfolio can appropriately increase their positions on bargain hunting.
Castrol wealth stakeholders are more optimistic that for long-term investors, if they are extended to three years, they can start layout and buying in this market position. If you add positions in growth stocks and gem, you must lengthen the operation cycle relatively, that is, you can take now as the starting point for increasing fixed investment. If the gem index can reach a new low, long-term fixed investment investors who take the initiative can increase the purchase proportion of growth stock index.
In addition, many institutions also remind investors to strengthen fund allocation to diversify and balance benefits and risks.
Yang Zhe, general manager of asset allocation Department of GF, said that at present, the market is in an environment with intensified shocks. For the basic people, it is more difficult to select the base, timing and allocation. Throughout the year, although the overall economic growth has slowed down, with the strong support of policies, the economic fundamentals are gradually improving, but fluctuations and differentiation are still difficult to avoid in the short term. Therefore, it is suggested that investors balance income and risks through asset allocation and appropriate dispersion, advance, attack and retreat, adapt to different markets and harvest more stable investment income.
The Investment Advisory Department of China Merchants Fund said that there have been several major changes in the A-share market in recent years. First, the overall fluctuation of the market has decreased according to the observation of medium and long cycles. Second, the proportion of institutional funds has increased significantly. Third, the degree of opening to the outside world is gradually deepening. Mengquan capital market is still an effective way to deliver economic growth dividends. It is suggested that investors rationally weigh expectations and risks, participate in the market with the concept of asset allocation, and choose their own investment tools.
