From the rough waves of the last two weeks to the calm of this week, it seems that the passion disappeared in an instant. Various funds have also gradually formed some unified understanding in the shock. Pork, medicine, real estate and the Internet are the “abandoned children” of the first two years, and 2022 is destined to be a year of dilemma reversal.
The index is calm this week. From the rough waves of the last two weeks to the calm of this week, it seems that the passion disappears in an instant. After the rebound of 200 points, differences emerged. The off-site funds hesitated and waited for the retest of the gap or even the previous low, while the on-site funds adhered to the persistence of local sectors, propped up the seemingly weak market and waited for the day when flowers bloom in spring.
Both long and short sides seem to have taken a step back at this time, but the seemingly calm lake is actually surging under the undercurrent. Breaking this balance requires time and some external forces. Whether local hot spots can heat up and be recognized by various funds will be the core of the future market.
According to the current capital structure of a shares, it is impossible to launch a comprehensive market. However, compared with the previous two months, with the opening and closing of the market, various funds have gradually formed some unified understanding in the shock, and the context of the market in 2022 is gradually clear. From the current perspective, several main lines have gradually surfaced. The first is the reassessment of agricultural and sideline products and bulk commodities under high global inflation. Whether it is agriculture, pork, gold and nonferrous metals, it is a helpless move to combat current high inflation; Second, the epidemic situation is repeated. The whole world is looking forward to the emergence of specific drugs as soon as possible. At the same time, after years of intensive purchase, the pharmaceutical sector seems to be facing an inflection point of dawn; The third is the real estate recovery. The desire for macro stable growth is the most obvious landing in the real estate policy. Although the market has stubborn “arrogance and Prejudice” towards real estate, there seems to be no better way to solve the current economic dilemma over time; The fourth is the Internet of Hong Kong stocks next door. Tencent’s annual report is constantly questioned with the adjustment of share price, but if you look closely, you can still feel the toughness of this behemoth. At this time, it reminds me of Maotai in 2013. After the plasticizer incident, Maotai lowered its noble head and was “scolded” by many people, but only those with a heart can see its proud expression when it lowered its head.
Pork, medicine, real estate and the Internet are the “outcasts” of the first two years. 2022 is destined to be a year of dilemma reversal. Put down “arrogance and Prejudice”, and 30 years of feng shui will turn in turn. Investment is cycle and rationality.
(the author is Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Shanghai Research Director)
