In 2022, the A-share market fluctuated endlessly, especially in March. A large number of equity funds suffered serious net loss, and many Jimin partners were worried.
How should the fund be arranged under the big shock? Is it time to “copy the bottom”? How to adjust their own fund investment layout? To this end, the reporter of China fund daily interviewed a number of fund managers to guide the “maze” of fund layout.
They are Mai Jing, general manager and fund manager of multi Asset Management Department of Boshi fund
Ping An fund manager shenaiqian
Qin Xuan, fof fund manager of Qianhai open source fund
Yin Haiying, head of fof investment department I of ChuangJin Hexin fund
Zheng Yuan, investment director of Nord fund fof,
These fund managers jointly feel the investment opportunities in the follow-up fund market in 2022. They believe that at present, no type of assets can reflect relatively consistent value or risk in the short, medium and long term. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt a more balanced and neutral strategy for fund allocation. From the dimension of 2-3 years, it can also gradually distribute and slightly layout the growth style blue chip active equity funds.
fund allocation adopts balanced and neutral strategy
China Fund News reporter: how do you think fund allocation should be done under the current market background? What kind or types of funds do investors focus on
Mai Jing: at present, the overall valuation of A-share market is reasonable, the bond yield is also at a neutral level, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is low, but the short-term fluctuation is large. Generally speaking, no type of assets can reflect a relatively consistent value or risk in the short, medium and long term. In this context, it is suggested to adopt a more balanced and neutral strategy for fund allocation.
If it is difficult for investors to judge how the allocation is balanced, or do not know what kind of allocation is relatively neutral for themselves, the fof fund matching their risk appetite may be a good choice. For investors whose funds can be used for long-term investment and pension investment, now is also a good time to start to develop a fixed investment pension fof. At present, the capital market situation is complex and the short-term fluctuation is large, but with the increase of long-term investment value, the pension fof, especially the target date pension fof, has a holding period of three or five years, which can hedge short-term fluctuations to a certain extent through fixed investment, The long-term value of equity assets can be realized through long-term holding.
before God’s love: the current market may be in the stage of shock and bottom grinding, and it is suggested to increase positions gradually in this stage. For a long time, the medium and long-term return of this position may be considerable, but the short-term market may still be relatively weak, some uncertain factors have not been eliminated, and there are some fluctuation risks at the bottom.
I think some short-term cycles and resource funds may perform well, but we need to be vigilant that commodities may be a peak process this year and may not be suitable for holding for a long time. Some photovoltaic funds, new energy funds, medical funds, etc. from a medium and long-term perspective, are an opportunity to enter gradually, while the consumer funds greatly affected by the epidemic may be on the left side of the fundamentals, but this year we need to pay close attention to the inflection point of the epidemic and policies, and it is also a better opportunity to enter gradually at the right time. In addition, some excellent active management strategy funds may perform better in the medium and long term than single industry funds.
Zheng Yuan: we believe that the allocation fund is a relatively long-term investment. Therefore, no matter what market time point we stand on, we are always relatively inclined to allocate those fund varieties with medium long-term income preference and medium and low risk. From the current macroeconomic cycle stage, as the inventory cycle and capacity cycle are in the contraction stage, equity assets will have greater pressure and perform poorly. In the face of economic downward pressure, macro-control often adopts certain counter cyclical policies, including marginal loose monetary policy, which is beneficial to fixed income assets and performs well. In the long run, we still suggest that investors focus on more stable equity funds and allocate fixed income assets appropriately. In addition, if there is a high liquidity demand for funds for investment, we can also focus on short-term bonds and monetary funds.
Qin Xuan: since the biggest core variable this year comes from the Fed’s interest rate increase and statement reduction, the rise of risk-free return will compress the valuation of equity assets, especially the suppression of overvalued assets. Therefore, the general tone of fund allocation this year is mainly defense. It is suggested to focus on balanced allocation in fund allocation and control the total exposure of equity funds.
Structurally, three types of funds are recommended:
First, hard core technology funds, including high-end manufacturing, strategic military industry and independent and controllable direction of supply chain.
Second, resource extraction (industrial metals, rare earths, precious metals) funds and agricultural funds benefiting from rising inflation.
Third, dividend funds with high dividends.
It is suggested that the short-term allocation of funds should not be combined with the short-term allocation of funds, and the short-term allocation of funds may not be possible; We should also see that some high-quality investment tracks, such as leaders in emerging technology or basic manufacturing, have gradually been in a reasonable range of cost performance. Investors can pay attention to funds with long-term investment logic, in which the position is stable, and the fund strategy of layout from a long perspective is particularly valuable.
long dimension can gradually increase positions in growth style funds by stages
China Fund News reporter: if you want to layout active equity funds, what strategy should you adopt this year? How should I choose
Mai Jing: this year’s active equity fund can be arranged in the fixed investment mode, which can not only obtain better returns from the perspective of the next three years, but also help to avoid excessive psychological pressure caused by short-term fluctuations. In terms of fixed investment varieties, we can focus on value funds and Hong Kong stock funds, and further incorporate them into growth funds for fixed investment in the second half of the year.
before God’s love: this year, it is obvious that the growth style fund has fallen more. In this position, from the perspective of gradual and step-by-step admission, I tend to choose the growth style fund. Although there are some adverse factors in the short term, many growth industries have experienced large declines and many reactions, which is a bottom seeking process. Some industries have performed too well this year, but their future growth is insufficient. If the valuation is repairing and fluctuating, it may be in the process of top seeking.
Therefore, from the perspective of medium and long-term 2-3 years, I suggest adding some growth style funds gradually and in stages.
When choosing an active equity fund, I suggest investors evaluate its relative return and excess return. The relative excess return is compared with the market and the proportion of funds with similar styles. If it is ahead when rising and moderate when falling, it will continue to create excess return. It is difficult to accurately predict the rise and fall of the market, but as long as excellent fund managers continue to maintain excess returns in the dimension of 6-12 months, its investment cost performance is relatively significant.
Zheng Yuan: we suggest that when investing in equity funds, ordinary investors should not only choose the products with the highest returns in the short term according to the historical returns of the funds.
From our understanding of fund products, the product with the best performance in the short term often means that the product is configured with high positions in a certain segment of an equity asset. This usually means that the product may face a large net worth pullback in the future. Facing this year’s macroeconomic background, we believe that this year we should focus on those stable and balanced products, take into account the growth and fluctuation of product net value, have better risk return characteristics, and adhere to long-term holding.
Qin Xuan: this year’s active equity fund layout should control the total position of the overvalued track. Focus on the hard core technology funds mentioned earlier; Resource extraction (industrial metals, rare earths, precious metals) funds and agricultural funds benefiting from rising inflation, as well as dividend funds with high dividends.
Yin Haiying: when laying out active equity funds this year, it is suggested to choose the fixed investment strategy of bargain hunting layout. When the market is adjusted due to geopolitical, epidemic and other external factors, good investment targets are generally affected by risk appetite and are at a low evaluation level. Bargain hunting investment and fixed investment methods to suppress fluctuations are bonus items.
at present, the overall equity valuation is reasonable
net worth falls and “Redemption” needs to be cautious
China Fund News: many investors’ equity funds suffered a decline in net worth. Do you think this is a good time to “redeem”
Mai Jing: the purpose of investors’ equity fund layout is to increase the value of assets, and equity assets are the assets with the most value-added potential in the next ten or even twenty years, and they are also a kind of assets that can not be bypassed by personal investment.
In this context, there are only two situations that individual investors should redeem: one is when they have to redeem due to cash flow. In this regard, it is suggested that investors should fully consider the duration of this investment when they start equity investment. Equity funds must need long-term investment. If they have to be redeemed at a low market due to liquidity, the gain is not worth the loss; Two, when the rights and interests market bubbles, it is more typical that in 2015, when the market valuations were very high and the mood was crazy.
Back to now, the overall equity valuation is reasonable, obviously not bubble stage, although the future market will still fluctuate, but “the risk is rising, the opportunity is Dad out”, the future volatility can provide investors with a gradual layout of the rights fund of the machine, it is recommended that you arrange through the way of fixed investment.
Zheng Yuan: from the perspective of risk, equity funds can be divided into different categories according to the expected risk. We believe that equity funds with relatively high-risk categories should not become the key allocation varieties of ordinary shareholders. Investors should pay more attention to those varieties with stable long-term performance. Of course, if the net value of such funds drops significantly, we believe that in the face of this situation, we should not redeem these fund products with stable long-term performance, but also consider actively distributing such products against the trend. In the long run, the investment experience of such products is often better, so that ordinary investors can hold them for a long time.
Qin Xuan: for broad-based indexes such as CSI 500 and CSI 1000, the current valuation is at the bottom of history and it is not suitable for current redemption. For some industry funds with high valuation, it is necessary to analyze the specific situation, analyze the prospect of the industry in the future, and then make judgment.
Yin Haiying: I think specific analysis is needed. Generally speaking, after early adjustment, the market is now in a low position, and redemption is not a good time at present. However, we should also analyze the specific investment direction of the product, and stop the loss in time for the investment in bad track or low-quality fund.
short term not blindly “bottom reading” Hang Seng technology
suggest fixed investment
China Fund News: the Hong Kong market is in a downturn this year, especially the Hang Seng technology index has a large decline. Do you think it has the value of “bottom reading” at present
Mai Jing: Hong Kong stock market is affected by multiple domestic and overseas factors at the same time. Under the background of the expected interest rate increase and contraction of the Federal Reserve this year and the unexpected conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Hong Kong stock market has experienced a very extreme decline. In the long run, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has sufficient risk compensation for various risk factors. At present, Hong Kong stocks are in the bottom area and have long-term investment value.
However, in the medium and short term, the repair of Hong Kong stock profits still needs to wait for some time. Periodic mood fluctuations and overseas capital inflows and outflows may bring greater fluctuations in the future. For assets in the long-term bottom area but short-term headwind, they have the value of “bottom reading”, but the one-time and short-term “bottom reading” action should be avoided. For individual investors, it may be a better choice to start fixed investment in Hong Kong stock funds.
Qin Xuan: Hang Seng technology mainly invests in China’s Internet companies, which provide convenient communication, consumption and travel tools for the public, improve social productivity, and have considerable investment value in the long run. For such an index that is already at the bottom of the valuation but the rising trend is not clear, it is recommended to adopt the fixed investment method, invest a certain proportion of funds in each period, and build positions evenly in the bottom area, so as to ensure that the average cost of building positions is low.
Yin Haiying: Hong Kong market corresponds to a number of high-quality technology companies in China. Especially when Internet companies are in the period of rapid development of the industry, some top-notch Chinese enterprises choose to list in Hong Kong. At present, the Hong Kong stock market is undervalued. There are some Internet enterprises with long-term vitality, and their investment value has entered a range worthy of attention.
“fixed income +” also fluctuated
need to reduce revenue expectations
China Fund News: at present, the net value of many “fixed income +” products has also fallen. What do you think investors should think? Is it worth the layout
Mai Jing: fixed income + products can meet the needs of investors whose income target is higher than bond investment but whose volatility tolerance is lower than equity investment, and most individual investors’ risk appetite also falls into this category. Therefore, for investors, fixed income + is a kind of asset worthy of layout.
But at the same time, we should also recognize how fixed income + is “increased”. For different managers, there may be different strategies, but on the whole, the “increased” of fixed income + mainly comes from stocks and convertible bonds (in the past, there were new sources of “increased” of low-risk arbitrage), and the volatility of these two types of assets is much higher than that of bonds. Therefore, investing in fixed income + products must have a rational understanding of the income and fluctuation characteristics of these products.
Over the past few years, investors have experienced the disappearance of “non-standard and non-standard derived high-yield, almost just against fixed income products”. With the decline of interest rate, the income level of “no fluctuation, high-yield yu’e Bao” has declined, and began to passively accept fluctuations under the trend of “net worth of financial products”.
However, up to now, it may be difficult for us to accept the objective relationship between income and fluctuation: due to the good performance of stocks, bonds and convertible bonds in the past two or three years, and the significant improvement of risk return characteristics of many partial debt hybrid funds by playing new thickening during this period, investors can not avoid linear extrapolation. The products that bring 4-5% income should have no fluctuation or only slight fluctuation, and it is easy to earn more than 6%, 8-10% fixed income + maximum pullback is only a 2-3% illusion.
But in fact, from the income side, you may need to reduce your expectations of “fixed income +”. After all, the interest rate level has decreased significantly compared with the past, that is, the income cushion of the fixed income part has become thinner, and the space for new arbitrage has basically disappeared, and the stock and convertible bond market cannot always be a bull market; On the fluctuation side, we need to improve our tolerance for fluctuations and recognize that normal fluctuations from the assets themselves are not equal to risks. Only in this way can we hold these “fixed income +” products and finally achieve the purpose of “plus”.
Zheng Yuan: as a kind of net worth products, “fixed income +” products also have the characteristics of net fluctuation. Therefore, the net value withdrawal of such products is an inevitable manifestation of market changes. Of course, generally speaking, “fixed income +” products tend to invest a higher proportion of their assets in fixed income assets, while a lower or very low proportion is allocated to equity assets.
Therefore, from the perspective of theoretical risk expectation, the fluctuation of such products should be much lower than that of ordinary equity assets. However, such allocation method also directly leads to the fluctuation of the net value of such products, which is highly related to fixed income assets. When fixed income assets fall, such products will also perform poorly. In the long run, we believe that fixed income assets are still the preferred asset category for investors with low volatility or low risk preference. Therefore, for such investors, “fixed income +” products also have high configuration value.
Qin Xuan: at present, due to the decline of new income, the net value of “fixed income +” products has also decreased. From this year’s dimension, it is a general trend that the new income has become less (but not zero this year’s dimension). The inherent advantages of “fixed income +” funds have also been diluted. However, under the general trend of downward income of financial products, “fixed income +” fund still has its investment value. The investment group he applies to becomes a medium-risk investor with medium risk appeal and certain equity investment demand. Firstly, the static coupon rate of the bond part of the “fixed income +” fund is 2-3%, plus a small amount of new income, which can still ensure the positive return of one-year dimension without a loss of more than 20% in the equity part. Secondly, after the decline of equity assets, the investment value has gradually highlighted and the profit loss ratio has increased,
For investors who can accept a withdrawal of about 4% and pursue an annualized return of about 7-8%, the “fixed income +” fund is a better investment target.
Yin Haiying: this year is a year when both stocks and bonds start at a relatively high water level. The subsequent decline of the equity market has the resonance influence of internal and external factors. Good fixed income + products will be equipped with some equity assets with long-term quality. Therefore, when there is no way to form effective hedging between stocks and bonds, there will be more obvious losses. However, these circumstances should not constitute a score reduction for the long-term profitability of high-quality fixed income + products. Historically, the market environment of double pressure on stocks and bonds will not last very long.
pay attention to the position structure in fund layout
Do not advance rashly at present
China Fund News reporter: can you talk about what risks should be paid attention to in the current layout of funds
Mai Jing: don’t invest with short-term money, avoid high valuation varieties and be prepared to withstand certain fluctuations.
before God’s love: the main risk this year is that there are some uncertain factors. One is the evolution and influence of the external Russian Ukrainian war; One is the suppression and change of the internal epidemic on the economy. It is affected by these two factors that the market is relatively weak and shakes at the bottom. In the follow-up, as these uncertain factors become clearer or the impact weakens, the market is expected to improve.
Zheng Yuan: in the past 2-3 years, the public fund industry has “piled up” to hold some assets. This leads to bubbles in the valuation of some sectors in equity assets. Once these assets bubble is broken, these assets will often have large and long time valuation digestion process. When investing funds, it is important to consider whether these funds hold the assets of these valuations so as to avoid the key. We should not make simple choices blindly according to the historical performance in the past.
Qin Xuan: the current equity market fluctuates greatly, so it is not suitable to invest all the funds at one time. We can use the method of fixed investment and invest in stages. Secondly, some racetracks and industries are still in the valuation stage. If the risk appetite is low, it is recommended to avoid such industries
Yin Haiying: at present, three important risk points need to be paid attention to in fund layout. First, history cannot be used to deduce the future. Every change in the external environment of the market corresponds to the change of specific asset logic and underlying structure. We should re-examine and find areas with high value in the future, and we should not blindly follow the winners in history. Second, we should not be too aggressive. Although the market is in a low position, there are still outstanding risks, and the risk tolerance of investment should be cautious. Third, bonds and other long-term stable assets, some of which are also in a high position due to the economic changes since last year and the policies of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates. It should be noted that stable assets also have possible downside risks.
