According to the data from the two platforms of "Buer sauce liquor" and "today's liquor price", the prices of all kinds of Maotai liquor fell sharply on March 25 and 26. In 22 years, it took less than half a year to fly from 3000 + to 2600. In the past week, the decline reached 200 yuan / bottle, and 110 yuan / bottle in the last two days; The original box has fallen by 180 yuan / bottle in the last two days, and the price has reached 2750 yuan / bottle; Other Chinese Zodiac wine and vintage wine all fell sharply, among which the 15th vintage wine fell by 400 yuan / bottle in two days.
So, what is the reason for the sharp decline in the price of Maotai? Analysts believe that the decline in Maotai liquor prices is mainly due to two reasons: first, the recent outbreak of the epidemic in first tier cities and the weakening of consumption expectations; Second, Maotai's new e-commerce platform is about to go online, which may impact the interests of dealers.
Can consumers buy cheap Maotai? According to the reporter, at present, the price of Feitian Maotai liquor has indeed decreased by 100 yuan / bottle compared with the beginning of the year, but the price still reaches 2750 yuan / bottle. Moreover, some dealers told reporters that the price of the above platform is useless, and it is still difficult to buy real Maotai.
It is worth noting that while the price of Maotai liquor is falling, the news of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price increase came. It is said in the wine industry that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) adjusted its core product - the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) recommended guide price to 1499 yuan / bottle, with an increase of 100 yuan per bottle. The performance of liquor enterprises in the past two months is generally not bad. So when can Baijiu's market return?
Maotai liquor prices plummeted continuously
In recent two days, the price of Maotai liquor suddenly plummeted across the board. First, let's look at the market on March 25. According to the data of "Buer sauce liquor" platform, the whole quotation table of Maotai liquor was green on that day! Feitian, zodiac, 15 years, high-quality products... All have different levels of price downward exploration.
On that day, in 2022, the price of xinfeitian's original box has dropped to 2900, and the price of loose bottles has fallen to 2600. Compared with 3000 + a bottle at the peak, it can be said that it has fallen quite a lot. Fifteen years continue to plummet 200 yuan / bottle! The market price fell below 6500. If we say which product of Maotai has been hit the most in this round of price decline, it is undoubtedly that it has fallen from the price of 7700 at the peak to 6450 at present, with a decline of 1200 +! In addition, there were small drops of 40 yuan / bottle and 10 yuan / bottle for boutique and Maotai 1935 respectively.
It was thought that the overall decline in the price of Maotai was just a small episode. But surprisingly, on March 26, the price of Maotai liquor continued to fall sharply across the board. Insiders said that the whole Maotai liquor price system has fallen into the biggest "Waterloo" in recent years. Since Maotai's strong rise in recent years, it has hardly encountered such a frenzy of price decline. This time, the market panic has intensified.
From the perspective of quotation, the price of Feitian original box in 2022 fell sharply today, falling to 2750 yuan / bottle. This wave of price decline since mid March has reduced the price of the original box from 3200 + to 500 now. Compared with the market retail price approaching 4000 yuan / bottle in the second half of last year, there is a huge decline of 1000 yuan / bottle. The Chinese zodiac in the year of the tiger welcomes another decline of 100 yuan / bottle today, and the market price drops by 4000 yuan / bottle. The biggest impact of this round of price decline is that in the past 15 years, the variety continued to fall sharply by 200 yuan / bottle today, and the market price fell by 6200 yuan. Counting yesterday, it fell by 400 yuan / bottle in two days.
two bad shocks
According to insiders, under the current continuous decline in prices, many dealers have been afraid to purchase again.
So, what is the reason for the continuous decline in the price of Maotai liquor? Analysts believe that there are two main reasons: one is that the epidemic affects consumption expectations, and the other is that Maotai e-commerce may impact dealers.
Recently, China's epidemic has begun to break out repeatedly, especially in first tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen. From 0:00 to 24:00 on March 25, 2022, there were 38 confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia and 2231 asymptomatic infections in Shanghai, of which 5 confirmed cases were the outcome of asymptomatic infections before, 3 confirmed cases and 1773 asymptomatic infections were found in isolation control, and the rest were found in the screening of relevant risk groups. Nine newly confirmed cases of imported covid-19 pneumonia and two asymptomatic infections were found in closed-loop control. From the information of "Buer sauce liquor", many Maotai liquor manufacturers are worried about the consumption prospect, and begin to "abandon the handsome and protect the car" and greatly cut meat and goods in Maotai. From the "fragrant pastry" to today's "hot potato", the decline of Maotai since the beginning of the year has broken through the psychological defense line of many people.
According to the recent news of Maotai e-commerce, according to Shanghai Securities News, Maotai "secretly" launched the development plan of the new e-commerce platform six months ago. At present, the initial work is basically completed and may be launched at any time. The new e-commerce platform is not only a sales channel, but also a channel for Maotai to display its brand image and corporate culture. On March 23, the media confirmed that Maotai's new e-commerce platform would indeed go online. However, the person did not further introduce the details of the new e-commerce platform, nor did he clarify the specific date of the launch of the new platform. According to some insiders, Maotai e-commerce may start operation on April 1, but this news has not been officially endorsed.
Professionals believe that the focus of Maotai's second electric shock is on the layout of direct sales, which is in line with the accurate playing method of "five in one marketing method" of Ding Xiongjun, the leader of Maotai. The marketing reform has a significant impact on Maotai's future. For the sake of reform, it may touch the interests of some people, but for the overall situation of Maotai, we can only sacrifice and have no choice.
"immortal bird" when will it return
So, will the price of Maotai continue to fall, or when will it stabilize? Can consumers buy cheap real Maotai at present? After Maotai e-commerce operation, can we realize the freedom to buy Maotai? To this end, the reporter also interviewed some dealers.
A Maotai dealer in Shenzhen said that at present, the price of Maotai has indeed declined, which is nearly 100 yuan / bottle cheaper than that at the beginning of the year, but the price is still more than 2750 yuan / bottle. There is still a distance of 200 yuan from the quotation of 2550 in the market. A dealer in the mainland said frankly that this kind of quotation is useless. The rise and fall of retail prices are still controlled by consortia. The market can't buy cheap wine. At present, it still costs about 2800 yuan / bottle.
In addition, after the launch of Maotai direct e-commerce, ordinary consumers may not be able to buy cheap Maotai. According to insiders, during the rush buying activities of tmall and Suning Feitian Maotai liquor, scalpers rented dozens of long-term active Taobao and Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) accounts for a short time to rush to buy Feitian Maotai liquor regularly with the help of rush buying scripts and software, but consumers who really need it can't rush to buy it. From this point of view, the possibility of Maotai liquor prices falling continuously in the future may not be too great.
In addition, it is noteworthy that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) again came the news of price increase, and this time the price rose to the same level as Feitian. Recently, it was reported that the guidance price of the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) proposed to be adjusted to 1499 yuan / bottle, with an increase of 100 yuan per bottle. At present, on Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) official e-commerce platform, the price of this product has been updated to 1499 yuan / bottle. In this context, the space for Maotai liquor prices to continue to fall may also be weakened.
So when can Baijiu come back? Analysts believe that we should wait until consumption recovers. At present, the performance of Baijiu is not too bad. The data show that the performance of well-known liquor in the first quarter of 2022 is generally in line with expectations, the high-end liquor enterprises are stable, the sub high-end liquor enterprises are highly elastic, and the dynamic sales are generally in good condition. However, due to the epidemic, the overall consumption expectation is weak. If the follow-up epidemic is controlled, the specific drugs and better quality vaccines will emerge, and consumption is expected to revive. Baijiu will still be sought after.
