The most eye-catching sector in the recent market is undoubtedly the real estate sector. There are two reasons. One is that the relevant departments said that the pilot of real estate tax will not be expanded. The other is that some third and fourth tier cities have abolished relevant control measures, and the trace of capital bottom layout is very obvious. Some market participants said that in the short term, the real estate sector may be divided after a rapid rebound. It is suggested that investors should intervene again after a correction. In addition to the real estate sector, the building materials sector benefiting from the recovery of real estate is also the key sector that can be paid attention to.
a real estate
high quality real estate enterprises will enjoy valuation premium
After a period of silence, the real estate sector strengthened again. The rapid rise of the real estate sector is directly related to the news that the pilot of the real estate tax will not be expanded during the year. In terms of news, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency recently that some cities have carried out investigation and preliminary research, but considering all aspects of the situation, they do not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform this year. The management has made a voice one after another, which shows that the risks existing in real estate enterprises have received obvious attention.
Yang Kan, an analyst at Ping An Securities, pointed out that the loosening of short-term policies is both necessary and reasonable, and is expected to make concerted efforts at both ends of supply and demand. Despite the central government's proposal of steady growth, the contradiction between local government revenue and expenditure has become prominent under the cooling of the land market and the impact of the epidemic. At the same time, the sales of real estate enterprises have decreased rapidly year-on-year, and the medium and long-term loans of residents have been negative for the first time since statistics. The first half of 2022 is the debt repayment peak of real estate enterprises. All market participants urgently need to break the situation with the help of external policy forces to resolve systemic risks.
For the real estate industry, in addition to the pressure on the fundamentals, policy adjustment has always been one of the biggest uncertain factors in the industry. However, with the warming of the policy, the bottom of the policy may have passed. Wang Qiuzhen, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, pointed out that the policy statement on real estate has been consistent and warm since September. We believe that the end of the policy has passed, and there are the following aspects for the implementation of the policy in the future. First, the tone of "no speculation in housing and housing" remains unchanged, and the "big water release" type of easing is difficult to reproduce; The second is to strengthen credit support for the first and improved housing, or one city and one policy in terms of down payment ratio, interest rate and house purchase rules; Third, strengthen the financing support for real estate enterprises; Fourth, all localities have greater autonomy in policy adjustment. In the future, the "limit rise" and "limit fall" will go hand in hand, and the "regulation" and "adjustment" will go hand in hand.
At present, the real estate industry is in the combination of "bottom of fundamentals" + "bottom of policy", and the policy has gradually shifted from the credit side to the demand side. The key factors that previously suppressed the valuation have been mitigated. The current characteristics of "undervalued value, low position and high dividend" of the sector have sufficient margin of safety and flexibility. Wang qiuheng believes that the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year is the best window period for allocation. In the medium and long term, under the expectation of increased concentration and stable profits, the "three good real estate enterprises" with excellent management, smooth financing and diversified development will enjoy a higher valuation premium.
It is expected that the follow-up real estate support policy will continue to be introduced, and the relaxed urban energy level will be further improved. Qi Dong, an analyst at open source securities, pointed out that the current recovery of industry fundamentals is not optimistic. According to Kerry's data, in February 2022, the sales area of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the industry decreased by 43% year-on-year. The capital situation of real estate enterprises improved limited and still faced great credit risk. We believe that key cities will continue to implement policies according to the city, and the regulation policies are expected to be flexibly adjusted within the framework of "housing, housing and non speculation", reasonably guide the expectation of house prices, and realize the market repair from point to area. We continue to be optimistic about the allocation opportunities of the real estate sector in 2022, the policy continues to improve, the inefficient production capacity continues to be cleared, and the industry pattern has improved significantly. High quality enterprises have the basis for long-term valuation improvement. The beneficiaries include Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) and other robust leaders; And the commercial real estate leader represented by Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
potential stock selection
\u3000\u3000 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002)
the company laid out diversified businesses earlier, focusing on sub tracks of property management, leasing, commerce and logistics, with the scale ranking in the forefront of the industry. In terms of property management business, by the first half of 2021, all things cloud had achieved a revenue of 10.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. By the end of 2020, it had a management area of 566 million square meters, basically forming a business model focusing on housing, commerce, value-added services and urban services. In November 2021, the company announced the spin off and listing plan to accelerate business transformation and tap the stock market space. Multi business supports medium and long-term logic Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that the company operates steadily and has obvious advantages in financing cost. In 2021, it will effectively supplement high-quality soil storage to lay the foundation for subsequent sales. In addition, the company's diversified business continues to promote, its comprehensive strength is strong, and it has strong competitive strength in the process of industry pattern optimization.
\u3000\u3000 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048)
the company's performance express shows that the total operating revenue in 2021 is 285.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.20%. The company's sales increased steadily in 2021, with a cumulative contract amount of 534.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, a contract area of 33.33 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, and the average sales price of 16049 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) points out that the company adheres to the strategic layout focusing on core cities and urban agglomerations, deeply cultivates key national development areas, and has abundant soil storage resources and reasonable layout. With the dual effects of the background of central enterprises and industry leaders, the net debt ratio and financing cost are at an excellent level in the industry. The company's land acquisition is relaxed, taking into account resource acquisition and profit guarantee, and the scale can be improved in the future. While consolidating the main business, the "two wings" business has made great progress.
\u3000\u3000 Gemdale Corporation(600383) Gemdale Corporation(600383)
the company achieved a contract amount of 286.71 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 18.15%, a contract area of 13.77 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 15.25%, and the annual average sales price was 2082135 yuan / square meter, with a year-on-year increase of 2.51%. The growth of sales scale was at the leading level in the industry. Galaxy Securities pointed out that the company seized the financing window period and actively replenished funds. It successively issued three phases of medium-term notes in November, December and February of 22, with issuing interest rates of 4.17%, 4.04% and 3.58% respectively, and the financing cost gradually decreased.
The company's financial situation is stable. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company is a green enterprise. Its good financing advantages enable it to actively supplement funds during the policy relaxation period, seize opportunities in the regulation cycle and seek long-term development.
\u3000\u3000 China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979)
the company has a net debt ratio of 42.82% by the end of 2021, an asset liability ratio of 61.67% after excluding advances received, and a cash short debt ratio of 1.25. It is a stable green enterprise, laying a solid foundation for future development. Galaxy Securities pointed out that in 2021, the company achieved a contract amount of 326834 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.73%, a contract area of 146447 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17.77%, and the sales scale has always been at the leading level in the industry. In 2022, the company proposed a sales target of 330 billion yuan, which was the same as that in 2021. At present, the basic demand for house purchase is still in the market. It is expected that with the relaxation of demand side policies, residents' enthusiasm for house purchase will gradually pick up, the fundamentals will recover gradually, and the company is expected to achieve the annual sales target.
\u3000\u3000 Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155)
the company holds 115 urban complexes of Wuyue Plaza that have been opened. In 2021, the company's commercial operation segment achieved a rental income including tax of 8.64 billion yuan, an increase of about 51.0% year-on-year. "Wuyue Plaza" brand moat has been built, with high popularity and reputation. In the follow-up, under the premise of "expanding China's circulation and improving residents' consumption", the company's commercial operation sector will continue to make efforts Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the company's financial structure is sound, the risk of debt default is small, the two wheel drive builds a profit moat, and the business operation sector grows significantly. With the enhancement of the expectation of interest rate reduction in the first quarter of 2022, the credit supply of residents' improved housing mortgage loans is expected to be further supported, the attention and confidence of the capital market to high-quality leading real estate enterprises will be further improved, and the valuation of the company has strong attraction.
B building materials
market demand starts to increase
Recently, many places have substantially relaxed real estate regulation, the margin of real estate policy continues to improve, and the real estate data in the first quarter may gradually hit the bottom. As a building materials industry closely related to the real estate industry, the heat will gradually rise. Some analysts pointed out that the real estate policy is warm, and more and more policies and profit sharing will gradually boost the confidence of the industrial chain. Based on the sharp decline caused by geographical factors in the early stage, the building materials sector is expected to usher in a stage of rise,
Yan Guang, an analyst at Debang securities, pointed out that the undervalued and stable growth sector in the first quarter is expected to walk out of stronger relative returns. In March, with the further recovery of demand, the price rise of cement and glass is expected to start. The upward revision of performance expectation will be the biggest catalyst for the share price of the sector in the current cycle; Secondly, with the substantial relaxation of local real estate regulation, the real estate is expected to hit the bottom in the first quarter, and the bad credit impairment of consumer building materials will gradually come out with the advent of the annual report season. The consumer building materials enterprises adjusted in the early stage will reproduce new allocation opportunities. The leading enterprises have their own advantages, and there is plenty of room for improvement after the industry hits the bottom.
From the perspective of bulk building materials, the broad monetary policy of steady growth is expected to be further strengthened, and the medium-term cement demand and profit are expected to be repaired Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) analyst Huang Shitao pointed out that the economic data in February showed that the investment was strong while the demand for cement was still weak. We judged that the project approval and implementation were accelerated under the force of steady growth, and the progress of capital investment has been significantly accelerated, but the new project has not yet contributed to the physical demand. Q2 is expected to enter a phased peak of physical demand, and the medium-term cement demand is expected to continue to repair. In the short term, due to the good implementation of peak staggering, the overall level of clinker storage in China is low, and the cement storage level is in the middle but has begun to decline. The superposition enterprises have a strong mentality of raising prices to pass on costs. It is expected that the rhythm of price increase in this peak season will lead the rise of demand, and there is good price elasticity along the core markets such as the Yangtze River and the Pearl River Delta. Industry self-discipline + potential environmental protection and energy consumption constraints shrink the industry's supply capacity, the industry's capacity utilization is expected to remain high, and the profit center will remain medium to high. The dividend yield of 5-8% in 2021 makes the current valuation of 7 times P / E ratio have room for repair.
Previously, the valuation of consumer building materials has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. Under the relaxation of expectations on the edge of real estate, the decline of high raw material costs, the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectations, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair. Shitao said that referring to the historical experience of the consumer building materials sector and the current competitive situation, in the stage of capital easing + confidence gradually recovering from the bottom of the real estate industry, some companies may take the lead in further increasing their share and entering a new expansion cycle with the help of channel leading layout, operating efficiency advantages or financing plus leverage. The inflection point of shipment or order growth can be used as a signal on the right.
The trend of real estate investment from low to high is becoming more and more obvious, and the "golden bottom" after the sharp decline deserves attention. Yan Guang suggested that investors should first choose consumer building materials with longer logic, focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) and building fire hydrants Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , and cut into the new blue ocean of energy storage and fire protection; Secondly, pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , underestimate the value and pay high dividends, and actively layout the photovoltaic field; Finally, the chain of steady growth, focusing on Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
potential stock selection
\u3000\u3000 Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) 00227 7
company's waterproof material production capacity is far ahead in the industry, has obvious scale advantages, and the production capacity layout has entered the acceleration period. It has reached cooperation with local governments to invest in the construction of production base projects, and the radiation range of production capacity continues to expand. After more than 20 years of development, the company has accumulated sufficient high-quality customer resources, brand awareness and moat advantages. The layout of the company extends the industry, and there are still growth drivers outside the main business. Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that the company is the leader in the field of waterproof materials in China. It has the leading advantages in capacity scale and brand reputation. The improvement of industry concentration has created the leading barrier for the strong to be strong. The company has accelerated the expansion of market share through channel sinking and category expansion, and its performance growth is full of toughness. It is expected to continue to open the gap with competitors. At the same time, TPO photovoltaic integration is expected to open up the second growth curve and is optimistic about the company's sustainable growth potential.
\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372)
company is a scarce variety in the field of building materials. For more than ten years, it has provided consumers with high-quality products and assured services, achieved high-end attributes in the field of consumer home decoration pipes, achieved significant brand premium, and the gross profit margin of PPR products has remained above 50%.
In the industry's trough period, the company's excellent operation quality shows its leading quality. Shengang Securities pointed out that the company's retail channels continued to upgrade, adding 10002000 outlets a year on the basis of more than 29000 existing sales outlets. Based on the basic sector of home decoration water pipe, the company gradually realizes the integration of home decoration water related business and opens up the growth space through the concentric circle strategic layout of home decoration waterproof and water purification. In the future, the housing market will pay equal attention to the transformation of newly built houses and existing houses, and the consumer home decoration market has a broad space. We believe that the company has long-term vitality.
\u3000\u3000 Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737)
the pace of capacity expansion of the company is accelerated. According to the capacity planning from 2021 to 2023, the company clearly puts forward that the capacity will maintain a compound growth rate of 40%. In recent years, the pace of capacity construction has been accelerated to escort the goal of "double 10 billion" revenue. With the production capacity put into operation successively, the company's Huzhou production base in Zhejiang and Kunshan in Jiangsu, Nantong, Mingguang in Anhui, Dezhou in Shandong and Sanming in Fujian form a full coverage supply network in East China, so as to improve the company's product supply capacity in the whole East China, and the regional market share is expected to further increase. Debang Securities pointed out that considering the pessimistic expectation of real estate repair, the industry is expected to reach the bottom and stabilize. At the same time, the structural increment brought by affordable housing and infrastructure and the demand for polymer waterproof materials brought by the promotion of BIPV photovoltaic roof, the company, as a waterproof leader, will still maintain stable growth.
\u3000\u3000 Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585)
company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of cement clinker, aggregate and concrete. At the end of 2021, the clinker production capacity was 270 million tons and the cement production capacity was 380 million tons. The production capacity of single brand cement ranked first in the world. From 2002 to 2020, the net profit attributable to the parent company rose from 260 million yuan to 35.13 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 31%. Ping An Securities pointed out that the company has multiple advantages. Among them, the company's capacity in East China and Central South China accounts for more than 70%, and the capacity market in East China and Guangdong accounts for about 21% and 19%. Since 2018, cement prices in East China and Central South China have been higher. In addition, the company's gross profit per ton is at the top level of the industry for a long time, which provides more profit guarantee in the downward period of the market. Finally, the development of new energy industry has achieved results one by one. In 2021, 163 million kwh of photovoltaic power generation will be realized, which will achieve good coordinated development with the main industry.
\u3000\u3000 Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) 60080 7
the company has an annual cement grinding capacity of 116 million tons, 43.8 million cubic meters of commercial concrete, 154 million tons of aggregate, 700 million cement bags and 5.53 million tons of waste disposal in 14 provinces and cities in China and eight overseas countries. The company's cement business accelerated "going to sea". In 2021, it successfully completed the asset delivery of cement M & A in Zambia and Malawi, and completed the transformation of 1.5 million ton cement grinding station of marvini factory in Tanzania. At present, the company's overseas cement production capacity reaches 12.19 million tons / year. Minsheng Securities pointed out that in the recent financial expansion, there is no shortage of projects and funds for infrastructure, which is expected to hedge the downward pressure on the economy. In the infrastructure chain, we should pay attention to the anti inflation ability of the cement sector. Centennial Huaxin is full of growth vitality and fosters growth opportunities in multiple dimensions such as aggregate, environmental protection, concrete and overseas. Recently, the demand for cement in central and southwest China has gradually recovered and the price has increased.
