On the evening of the 25th local time, Yemeni Hussein armed forces issued a statement saying that they launched a new round of attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia that day.
Yehaiya, spokesman of Yemeni Hussein armed forces, said on social media that Hussein armed forces used drones and missiles to attack multiple targets in the west, East, central and south of Saudi Arabia, including oil refineries, on the same day, saying that the attack was to break through the blockade of Yemen led by Saudi Arabia.
An oil facility in Jeddah, a city in western Saudi Arabia, ignited a raging fire in the evening of March 25 local time, and thick smoke can be seen in the distance. The latest news released by the multinational coalition led by Saudi Arabia shows that the fire caused by the attack on two oil storage tanks in the oil facility has been basically controlled, and no casualties have been reported.
The Saudi Ministry of energy said that the two oil facilities in Jeddah and Jizan in Saudi Arabia were attacked by missiles on the same day. “The armed attack of Hussein is affecting Saudi Arabia’s ability to perform in the international energy market. Saudi Arabia will not be responsible for the shortage of oil supply in the global market caused by the armed attack of Hussein.”
On March 25 local time, the director of the International Energy Agency Birol condemned an attack on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. He said that at present, the oil market is extremely volatile, and the world is coping with the increasingly severe energy crisis.
As of the close of this morning, WTI crude oil rose 9.2% to close at $114.12/barrel this week, and Brent crude oil rose 11.9% to close at $117.62/barrel this week.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) research report pointed out that on the supply side, IEA issued a monthly report, believing that the obstruction of Russia’s crude oil export may increase the risk on the supply side. Russia is the largest exporter of oil and petroleum products in the world, supplying 8 million barrels / day of crude oil and refined oil to the world. IEA expects that from April, with the implementation of sanctions and the avoidance of buyers, Russia’s crude oil supply may be reduced by 3 million barrels / day, or cause a global oil supply shock; In addition, it will take time for Iranian crude oil to return to the market after the suspension of Iran’s nuclear negotiations. As of the end of January, the OECD inventory was 2.621 billion barrels, 335 million barrels lower than the average annual level of 20172021, which is at a low point in nearly eight years, exacerbating the tension of crude oil supply. In February 2022, OPEC increased production by 440000 barrels per day, significantly exceeding its production quota of 250000 barrels per day. However, OPEC + still adhered to the production increase plan of 400000 barrels per day. IEA believes that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have a large amount of idle capacity in OPEC member countries, are not willing to increase production, and OPEC’s production increase can not make up for the supply gap that may be caused by Russia’s crude oil withdrawal from the market.
On the demand side, due to the soaring oil price caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia will inhibit global economic growth, IEA lowered the demand growth forecast for 202122 by 950000 barrels / day to 99.7 million barrels / day; IEA pointed out that developed economies can reduce demand by 2.7 million barrels per day through home office and highway speed limit, so as to curb oil demand and deal with supply side risks. In the follow-up, we will focus on the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine, the sanctions policies of Europe and the United States against Russia, the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, the implementation of OPEC + production increase, the spread situation of Omicron virus strain, the progress of vaccination and the development of covid-19 specific drugs.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the geopolitical situation is tense recently, and the global crude oil supply and demand pattern is tight. It is expected that the oil price will remain high and continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subscripts: first, the upstream sector, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) , Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) ; Second, oil service sector, China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Cnooc Energy Technology & Services Limited(600968) , Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation(600871) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ; Third, large private refining and chemical sector, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ; Fourth, light hydrocarbon cracking sector, satellite chemistry and Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; Fifth, coal to olefin, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; The sixth and third largest chemical white horse, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) .
