This week, the proportion of chemical industry leaders held by northbound funds decreased sharply. What is the reason?
Seemingly stable market, northward capital is still flowing out.
The data show that in the last three weeks, the net outflow of funds from the North has been 36.32 billion yuan, 16.692 billion yuan and 12.779 billion yuan respectively. From the data, the amount of net outflow is gradually decreasing. In the past three weeks, a total of 65.791 billion yuan of northward capital outflow has been accumulated, which is also the third largest northward capital outflow over the years.
According to statistical analysis, there have been five obvious outflows of northward funds in history:
In July 2015, the stop loss was sold during the sharp decline, and the net outflow exceeded 40 billion yuan in seven trading days;
From October to November 2015, the market rebounded and retreated again after repair, with a net outflow of more than 28 billion yuan in 22 trading days;
In October 2018, Sino US trade frictions heated up, with a net outflow of 19 billion yuan in 13 trading days;
From March to may 2019, the floating profit was realized, with an outflow of nearly 80 billion yuan in 52 trading days;
In March 2020, the US dollar liquidity crisis, with an outflow of nearly 110 billion yuan in 22 trading days;
decline will be prosperous. In history, the Shanghai stock index rose after a large outflow of funds from the North
The largest outflow of northbound funds in history was in March 2020, when a net outflow of nearly 110 billion yuan in 22 trading days. The Shanghai Composite Index rose after reaching the lowest point of 264680 on March 19, 2020, followed by a two-week "calf market" in July
The second largest outflow of funds from the North was from March to may 2019, with an outflow of nearly 80 billion yuan in 52 trading days. After seeing the market low on June 6 of that year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose for nearly a month, with a cumulative increase of 6.41%
In July 2015, the market experienced a sharp decline, with a net outflow of more than 40 billion yuan in seven trading days. The Shanghai composite index rebounded after seeing a low on July 9, then rose 17.58% in 11 trading days
From October to November 2015, the market rebounded and retreated again after repair, with a net outflow of more than 28 billion yuan in 22 trading days. In the following December, Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 2.72%
In October 2018, Sino US trade frictions heated up, with a net outflow of 19 billion yuan in 13 trading days. Then, from October 19 to November 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 8.73% in a whole month
It can be said that the capital outflow from the north will rise sharply in the following five years.
what are the reasons for the sharp decline in the proportion of chemical leaders held by northbound funds
According to the data, the northward capital showed a net outflow trend for five consecutive days this week, but the outflow amount was not large, with a cumulative net outflow of 12.779 billion yuan this week. Only Monday saw a net outflow of 8.419 billion yuan, with a slight outflow on the other trading days.
From the perspective of the change in the proportion of capital holdings in the north, the proportion of increasing holdings of individual shares is small. Only Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) one individual share is increased by more than 1%, and the proportion of increasing holdings of other individual shares is not very large.
In terms of reduction, seven companies were reduced by more than 1%. Unexpectedly, the proportion of circulating shares held by the leading chemical company Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) this week fell from 16.13% to 7.37%, but there were other reasons for the change in the shareholding proportion of the shares. The Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , which obtained a large increase in holdings the previous week, was also reduced by 2.27% by northward funds this week Hangzhou Great Star Industrial Co.Ltd(002444) , Guangxi Wuzhou Communications Co.Ltd(600368) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) and other holdings were reduced by more than 1%.
However, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) the reason for the decline in the shareholding ratio is that 1.716 billion restricted shares were lifted this week. Although the proportion of circulating shares held by northbound funds decreased significantly, but judging from the number of shares held, it was increased this week
Commenting on Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that since 2019, the company has vigorously developed fine chemicals and new materials and implemented a number of investment or construction plans. In terms of new energy materials, the company invested in the ternary material project with an annual output of 10000 tons of lithium battery as early as 2020, and merged its wholly-owned subsidiary Yantai zhuoneng Lithium Battery Co., Ltd. from March to April last year. On January 14, 2022, the lithium iron phosphate cathode material project with an annual output of 50000 tons in Meishan base was officially started.
In addition, according to the EIA publicity, the company plans a 200000 ton Poe phase I project in Penglai, which indicates that the company has broken through the international technical blockade and can produce Poe products with independent intellectual property rights, filling the gap in China. The technical barriers of Poe products are extremely high. Only several major foreign chemical giant companies have core technical knowledge and patents. China's annual Poe import volume is about 400000 tons, and the external dependence is 100%. Wanhua relies on the ethylene project to meet the supply of its own Poe raw material octahexene and cut into a track comparable to the MDI industry. At the same time, 9000 tons of silicone project, 48000 tons of citral project, 60000 tons of PBAT project, 75000 tons of PLA project and electronic material project are all invested and constructed as planned, and it is expected to contribute profits in the next three years.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that the fine chemicals and new materials sector will be the fastest growing sector of the company in the future. With high-end new material projects, although the company's performance may fluctuate periodically with the rise and fall of product prices, due to the large number of products, the periodicity is decreasing, and the profit center will move upward in the future.
