What is the risk of real estate? The latest research and judgment of three banks! “King of the same industry” can’t start strategic transformation and so on!

The total assets increased to 8.6 trillion yuan, the net profit increased significantly by 24.1%, the non-performing loan ratio and non-performing loan balance continued to “double drop”, and the loan allocation ratio and provision coverage ratio “double rise” again… The latest report card handed over by Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) joint stock bank with assets of 8 trillion yuan attracted people’s attention.

In addition to the bright performance, the new changes are more concerned by the market.

In this annual report, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) voluntarily disclosed the business balance and non-performing situation in real estate and other fields for the first time – by the end of 2021, the business balance invested in real estate under Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) domestic self operated loans, bonds, non-standard and other businesses was 1.65 trillion yuan, and the non-performing rate was only 1.34%

At present, bank financial reports are being released intensively. Candid response to market concerns such as asset quality in key areas has become a common choice for more listed banks.

recently, China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) etc. disclosed their “housing related” risk exposure in their “report card” and shared the latest research and judgment on the real estate industry

actively disclose the risk exposure of “housing related” business, collective response of three head stock banks

For the housing related loans concerned by the market, a number of banks made a fresh response in their recent annual reports.

According to Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) annual report, at the end of 2021, the balance of business invested in real estate under Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) domestic self operated loans, bonds, non-standard and other businesses was 1.65 trillion yuan, with a non-performing rate of 1.34%. In terms of structure, personal real estate mortgage loans accounted for 67.82%, and the balance of corporate financing business was 532089 billion yuan, accounting for 32.18%. Moreover, the provision coverage rate of the bank for public real estate financing business was 305.14%, higher than the average provision coverage rate, and the risk loss offset ability was strong.

China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) in the 2021 annual report, as of the end of the reporting period, China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) real estate related loans, bank acceptance bills, letter of guarantee, bond investment, non-standard investment and other public real estate financing balances bearing credit risks amounted to 397713 billion yuan China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) said that due to the decline in the prosperity of the real estate industry and other factors, the solvency of individual real estate enterprises was affected and the debt risk increased. By the end of the reporting period, the group’s non-performing loan ratio to public real estate was 3.63%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points over the beginning of the year; The balance of non-performing loans was 10.331 billion yuan, an increase of 698 million yuan over the end of the previous year.

The recently released annual report of China Merchants Bank also shows that by the end of 2021, affected by the risk exposure of individual small and medium-sized enterprises and highly indebted real estate enterprises with poor development prospects, the non-performing loan rate of China Merchants Bank‘s real estate industry had increased from 0.3% to 1.41%, and the balance of non-performing loans had increased from 1.19 billion yuan to 5.655 billion yuan.

Regarding real estate risks, three head stock banks also have the latest research and judgment

“There will be no systemic risk in China’s real estate market, and the quality of real estate assets will continue to operate smoothly.” Zou Jimin, general manager of Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) risk management department, said at the annual performance briefing on the 25th that first, the overall supply of real estate credit scale is relatively sufficient, and the reasonable purchase demand of developers and buyers will be met in time; Second, the “one city, one policy” has been implemented, and some cities have optimized their real estate policies, which will accelerate the release of reasonable house purchase demand; Third, local governments and housing and urban rural development departments have taken an active role, and the “guaranteed delivery of buildings” has begun to achieve good results.

China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) Vice President Hu Gang said at the 2021 annual performance Conference on the 25th that the state has made several statements on the sound and healthy development of real estate, favorable policies for real estate in many places have emerged, market confidence has been restored, and the financing environment of real estate enterprises has gradually improved, forming positive factors.

“In the short term, the current short-term risks of real estate enterprises are gradually released, but the final risk prevention and control mainly depends on the sales situation, that is, the change of market expectations; in the medium and long term, we are full of confidence in the real estate industry after regulation, and believe that the enterprises that can improve their assets and liabilities and improve their management after adjustment and differentiation will be competitive in the future.” Hu Gang said.

With regard to the management and response arrangements of the real estate business, Zou Jimin said that since this year, the real estate market has gradually eased, and the problem developers or new default projects have been basically curbed. At present, the potential risks to public real estate projects are about 20 billion, and the provision for asset impairment has been made in place. “We will intensify the M & A of real estate projects, and specially arrange a 20 billion yuan M & a quota to promote the decoupling of full value projects from problem developers and eliminate potential risks in the ‘guaranteed delivery of buildings’.” Zou Jimin said.

With regard to the credit extension of real estate related industries, Lai Furong, general manager of Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) planning and finance department, said that Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) plans to add 560 billion yuan of loans this year, including 300 billion yuan of corporate loans. The business strategy focuses on the construction of new and old infrastructure, factories in industrial parks, clean energy and ecological environment governance, real estate M & A and affordable rental housing, and the transformation of high energy consuming enterprises; Retail loans are planned to increase by 260 billion yuan, and the business strategy will grasp the recovery trend of housing financing market in some regions.

Zhu Jiangtao, vice president and chief risk officer of China Merchants Bank, said recently: “the risk of corporate real estate business is still in the stage of risk rise and release, and the non-performing rate of the whole industry will rise further.” Zhu Jiangtao said that China Merchants Bank will also keep pace with the trend this year, but will control the non-performing rate within an acceptable range. As for when the whole industry will peak, we need to pay close attention to the changes in the sales of first-hand and second-hand houses.

China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) said in the report that in 2022, we will continue to implement the policies and regulatory requirements of the real estate industry and steadily carry out the real estate business. For the real estate credit business that bears credit risk, the region, customer and business format shall be optimized, and the real estate customer and regional structure shall be continuously optimized. Adhere to the closed management of sales collection and strengthen the risk monitoring of key customers. For the real estate business that does not bear credit risk, strengthen the appropriateness management of investors, fully disclose the key risk information of products, and earnestly perform the corresponding supervision responsibilities.

three lines of reform and opening – strategic transformation is a protracted war that can’t wait but can’t be rushed

In recent years, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) implemented the strategy of “commercial bank + investment bank”, vigorously promoted the transformation of retail business, and gave priority to the implementation of wealth private bank strategy. In July last year, after nearly two years of vacancy, the candidate for Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) chairman was finalized. Market concerns, will the management’s business strategy change?

“We should maintain overall stability and draw a blueprint to the end.” Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) chairman LV Jiajin said on the 25th that we should maintain strategic concentration, especially take “commercial banks + investment banks” as the strategic core and strengthen the implementation.

At the same time, the homeopathic fine-tuning of strategy is also the inevitable choice of the times. “Strategic transformation is a protracted war that cannot wait but cannot be rushed” — LV Jiajin emphasized the importance of transformation in his speech in the annual report.

In his view, the importance of digital transformation, mechanism reform, talents and risk prevention is highlighted. LV Jiajin said on the 25th that Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) will promote organizational change, build an organizational system of “strong head office and agile branches” and implement the reform of three lines: Science and technology, retail and enterprise finance.

Scientific and technological reform focuses on strengthening the supporting and leading role of science and technology, improving the ability of science and technology planning, construction management and security, expanding the original structure of “one office + one department + industrial fund”, and forming “one committee + four departments + industrial fund”, including digital transformation Committee, financial science and Technology Department, science and technology operation Department, security department, data management department and industrial fund.

Retail reform focuses on the implementation of the customer-centered concept, the implementation of hierarchical and classified operation and management of customers, and comprehensively improve the service ability of wealth management, consumer credit and business credit to all kinds of customer groups, especially long tail customer groups, through digitization. It has formed four key business lines based on retail Platform Department, including wealth management department, private banking department, retail credit department and Credit Card Center.

Enterprise financial reform focuses on breaking the departmental wall, especially integrating green into various departments, integrating green comprehensive solutions into services for various customer groups, and integrating into corporate finance department, green finance department, inclusive finance department, institutional business department, transaction banking department and enterprise financial risk management department.

continue to polish three business cards, and fortune bank moves towards the goal of “ten lines and one hundred billion”

“Green bank, fortune bank and investment bank” are three business cards that Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) continues to shine.

As the first equatorial bank in China, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) green finance leads the banking industry.

“Our green gold business has begun to move towards the harvest period.” Tao Yiping, President of Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) said that in recent years, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) has issued 145.4 billion yuan of green financial bonds at home and abroad. At present, it is one of the largest green bond issuers in the world, providing long-term, stable and low-cost funds for green gold projects. For example, after the introduction of carbon emission reduction support tools, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) took the lead in obtaining carbon emission reduction support funds and began to enjoy policy dividends.

With regard to the construction of wealth bank, Tao Yiping believes that in the future, with the gradual completion of investor education, the ability of bank financial customers to accept fluctuations will continue to improve, and wealth bank will usher in a broader space.

Tao Yiping said that the idea of wealth channel construction is to highlight key areas “offline” and “online” to highlight the dual engines of money shopkeeper and wealth cloud. Among them, “Qianda shopkeeper” has been handed over from the same industry line to the retail line, and the upgraded app is expected to be put into operation within this year,

Tao Yiping also said that with the “wealth cloud” as the link, the bank will continue to build an interbank wealth ecosystem and achieve the goal of “10 banks and 100 billion” – that is, selling retail financial products to more than 100 interbank banks, the number of financial consignment sales of small and medium-sized banks exceeded 100 billion, and the total scale of consignment sales exceeded trillion. With the help of the advantages of “peer circle of friends”, expand the distribution network and strive to achieve a breakthrough in the channels of consignment banks.

confident to achieve steady growth in operating revenue

Looking forward to the banking operation in 2022, Lai Furong said that the common problems in the three industries may put pressure on the development of the banking industry.

Lai Furong believes that at present, China’s economy is facing downward pressure, the international situation is complex and changeable, and the external situation has increased the pressure and uncertainty of bank operation; At the same time, in the first quarter, there was a significant adjustment in the capital market, the sales of funds and other products with rights were cold, and the income of wealth agents in all walks of life generally decreased significantly year-on-year; In addition, the impact of the two LPR cuts at the end of last year and the beginning of this year will be gradually reflected, and the loan yield level will be further under pressure.

“From our own business situation, we are confident to achieve steady growth in operating revenue this year and outperform the market.” Looking forward to this year’s performance, Lai Furong said.

Among them, in terms of interest income, Lai Furong said that through the control of volume and price, we can promote the steady growth of net interest income – in terms of volume, we can ensure credit supply; In terms of price, we will strive to maintain the stability of interest rate spread through the adjustment and optimization of credit structure and the expansion of settlement funds.

In terms of non interest income growth, Lai Furong said that the impact of current capital market fluctuations is a short-term factor, and more efforts will be made to promote the growth of non interest income in the future. “First, with the gradual stabilization of the capital market, the income of wealth consignment business is expected to gradually rise in the next stage; second, the wealth management business continues to accelerate the upgrading and transformation, improve the investment and research ability, strive to build a multi asset and multi strategy product system, and the income of wealth management business maintains steady and rapid growth; third, continue to give full play to the advantages of capital business, grasp the interest rate fluctuation opportunities brought by the external complex situation, increase the bond circulation and obtain investment opportunities Capital gains. “

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