Spring River water-cooled "snail" prophet! "First brother" has both revenue and net profit decreased. Is the inflection point of the cement industry coming?

The situation of continuous growth of net profit of the whole cement industry ushered in an inflection point in 2021 Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) 3 on March 25, the annual report of 2021 was disclosed. During the period, the revenue and net profit decreased both year-on-year, and the last time such a situation occurred was in 2015.

Spring River water-cooled "snail" prophet Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) the "double drop" may reflect that the continuous growth of the performance of the whole cement enterprise is ushering in an inflection point. At present, the annual reports of Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) have been disclosed. Among them, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) revenue continued to grow, but net profit declined Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) have the same revenue and net profit, with only Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) revenue and net profit still growing slightly.

At the same time, the net cash flow from the operating activities of the above cement enterprises also decreased significantly year-on-year. In this regard, some cement industry analysts told the reporter of Securities Daily that at present, the development of the cement industry has entered a bottleneck period, some enterprises strive to extend the industrial chain to the downstream, and leading companies begin to cultivate emerging industries. However, different from the previous cement enterprises involved in real estate, logistics, finance and other industries, the current profit growth point cultivated by cement enterprises is mainly carried out around the main business of cement, involving new energy and new materials.

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) revenue and net profit decreased both

After coming out of the trough in 2015, the cement industry has ushered in a high outlook for six years. Even if the performance inflection point is forming, the cement price is still at an all-time high.

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) annual report shows that in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 167953 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.73%; The net profit was 33.267 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.38%. The amount of cash flow from operating activities was 33.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.65%. By the end of 2021, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) clinker production capacity was 269 million tons, cement production capacity was 384 million tons, aggregate production capacity was 65.8 million tons, commercial concrete production capacity was 14.7 million cubic meters, and photovoltaic power generation installed capacity was 200 MW Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) said that the year-on-year decrease in net profit in 2021 was mainly affected by the rise in costs caused by the sharp rise in raw coal prices, but the sales price of the company's products remained high in 2021.

Looking at Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , the largest cement enterprise in the north, the company achieved an operating revenue of 36.338 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%; The net profit was 2.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.40%. By the end of 2021, the company's cash flow was 6.211 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.83% Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) said that the main trend of the cement industry in 2021 was the fluctuation of market demand and the rise of costs.

\u3000\u3000 "From the demand side, the growth rate of real estate and infrastructure investment slowed down in 2021, especially the sharp decline of real estate investment, which made the demand for cement show the characteristics of high before low, that is, the demand was good in the first half of the year and decreased in the second half of the year. From the cost side, in the second half of 2021, under the influence of 'dual control of energy consumption, power and production restriction', and the sharp rise in the price of raw material coal, the supply of cement enterprises was insufficient and the output fell. The production cost was high In the case of a sharp rise, the cement price in 2021 shows a trend of first restraining and then increasing. However, since the middle and late October of 2021, China's cement price has entered the downward channel as a whole, which continues until the middle of February 2022, and the decline gradually stops. At present, China's cement price is still higher than that in previous years. " The aforementioned analyst said.

According to the monitoring data of cement network, p.o42 Take bulk cement as an example. At present, the average price in Zhejiang is 566.57 yuan / ton, Jiangsu is 520.89 yuan / ton, Shanghai is 523 yuan / ton, Hubei is 509.67 yuan / ton, Beijing is 547.99 yuan / ton, and Guangdong has the highest average price, reaching 560.72 yuan / ton. These prices are at historic highs.

In 2022, the downstream demand for cement is still weak. On March 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the macroeconomic data from January to February, showing that the cement output in the first two months of this year was 199.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%. According to the data of Anhui Cement Association, the decline of cement production in the province was lower than the national average, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.76%.

"The output of Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) the first two months of this year also decreased year-on-year, but the decline was a little better than the overall situation of the country. The reason for the decline was weak demand." People in the securities industry have told reporters that the growth of GDP is not close to that of sustainable investment. From the current situation, the development of real estate is shrinking, and the development of "two high" industries is limited. In some regions, there is vicious competition among cement enterprises, and the synergy effect is getting weaker and weaker. These factors bring greater challenges to the development of the whole industry.

" Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) future development still faces two problems, one is the alternation of new and old management, the other is the problem of transformation and development." The industry added.

leading enterprises take the lead in exploring energy transformation

Under the background of "double carbon" goal, the cement industry, as the focus of carbon emission control, must force its own transformation and upgrading, which is a challenge but also an opportunity.

As a leader in the industry, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) has long had a layout.

In August 2021, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) announced the acquisition of conch new energy company for 443 million yuan, which is wholly owned by conch group through conch investment company. Its main business scope includes technology development and technical services in the fields of photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation and energy storage system. On March 8 this year, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) also announced the investment plan. In 2022, the company will invest 5 billion yuan to develop photovoltaic power stations, energy storage projects and other new energy businesses, so as to realize the full coverage of photovoltaic power generation in subordinate factories. It is expected that by the end of 2022, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will reach 1GW and the annual power generation capacity will reach 1 billion kwh. The aforementioned insiders also told the reporter of Securities Daily that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, conch group will invest a total of 200 billion yuan in four aspects: Cement main industry chain, new energy, new materials and digital industrialization, so as to consolidate the main industry and form new advantages.

Wang Cheng, chairman of conch group, recently expressed his thoughts on transformation and development in the media: cement enterprises should consolidate their main business, develop other businesses and speed up their integration into the industrial chain and value chain Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) actively move forward in the fields of new energy, new materials, energy conservation and environmental protection, and accelerate the extension and reinforcement of the chain.

Rapidly expand new energy industries such as photovoltaic, wind power generation and energy storage power stations, transfer investment in the cement industry to the downstream, speed up the distribution of terminal markets such as prefabricated buildings, and lengthen the industrial chain.

Other cement enterprises have also begun to seek transformation and development.

Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) said that the company had established a joint venture with Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) to build a framework platform and promote the implementation of the first batch of photovoltaic energy storage projects simultaneously.

Tianshan cement disclosed in the investor relations activities that cement enterprises have many application scenarios to implement photovoltaic projects. The company will implement the construction of photovoltaic power generation projects according to local conditions, improve the proportion of clean energy, and pay attention to and pilot the construction of biofuel alternative projects. At the same time, the company will give full play to its advantages in management, technology, capital and market to expand its aggregate business in the core area Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) also said they would accelerate the construction of photovoltaic power generation projects.

Cement enterprises have also appeared in the development of hydrogen energy industry, which has attracted the attention of investors. On March 16, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) signed a contract with China Chemical Construction Investment Corporation and China Wuhuan Corporation, wholly-owned subsidiaries of China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) engineering group. The three parties will steadily promote energy consumption substitution and industrial transformation and upgrading, improve the resource utilization rate of solid waste, carry out all-round cooperation in the fields of hydrogen production, storage, transportation and utilization and the construction of hydrogen energy industry demonstration parks, and constantly establish and improve the cooperation mechanism to achieve common development. Hydrogen energy may become one of the next ways to achieve energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry.

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