market analysis
The index has been tenacious in the past two days, but this morning’s index is definitely wrong , the market sentiment in the morning is very good, and the number of gainers has exceeded 3000 early, but the index has not moved at all, indicating that the morning index is really weak or this kind of rising market sentiment lacks support
Now from the perspective of technical analysis, there is a downward trend in in the short term , which is in the form of a hilltop. At the beginning of next week, should be careful to fall below 3200 points, but there is no need to worry. If you avoid the one or two falls, there will be new opportunities
capital flow
The turnover of the two markets is 918.3 billion, which is almost the same as that of yesterday. There has been a diving in the micro market, but there is too little time. In this way, the probability of next Monday, next Tuesday is to increase the volume and establish a short-term direction at the same time, although it is basically going down at present.
In terms of capital style, there are a lot of fried boards in the high-level stocks of micro cap, this round of mid-term rebound is very interesting. It is basically the infinite doll model , and one after another leading stocks are basically imitations of the previous leading stock, and then walk to become a new leading stock. Everyone belongs to the same sector, but their own rhythm is different.
sector hot spots: some phenomena are worth thinking about
Covid-19 medicine and real estate: the rhythm of this wave of mid-term rebound market is very different from that in the past. It is indeed a rotating rebound, but it is also the continuation of the main line rotation rebound is that different names appear from time to time, but the persistence is very bad
Covid-19 medicine and real estate are the indisputable main line during this period, but please note or you can look back a little to know that it is not the rhythm of rising and falling at the same time. For example, today’s China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) fell by the limit, but many pharmaceutical stocks rose by the limit or broke through new highs such as Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) . So do you think fundamental logic can explain this sharp differentiation? The same is true of real estate, which has long been divorced from the fundamentals and has stepped out of the continuous rise.
outlook
1. The deviation in the past two consecutive days is even worse today. Contrary to yesterday, the market sentiment is very high this morning. The number of early gainers exceeded 3000, but the index did not respond at all. This is a bad signal. Therefore, it is inferred that the index is likely to dive in the morning, and the market sentiment will also be dragged down, diving is predictable in the morning, But it is impossible to predict whether the jump will collapse or be pulled back
market’s continuous deviation is unsustainable. The current third stage may be the end of this wave of market or a new beginning. Now it is very close to the node of change , which is predictable, but the next direction is unpredictable.
2. Many people often fall into a thinking misunderstanding of making stocks, or human instinct. First, I like to predict rather than observe. I like to predict things that are far away. Regardless of right or wrong, are you sure you can get it for a long time? In real time, it is often the short-term to make the middle line, the middle line to make the growth line, or the long-term logic when buying, but no matter how much it rises or falls, the heart is extremely shaken and can’t hold it at all. Ask yourself if it’s you.
Second, I like things in the low position. I am instinctively afraid of heights. I always feel that the lower the position, the safer it is. There are inherent problems in low-end stocks that don’t want to understand the low-end stocks lying on the ground: first, the time cost, and second, it’s not safe after a sudden increase of more than 5%, because you don’t know what kind of nature the rise belongs to, whether it follows the market or follows the trend?, Ask yourself if it’s you
3. What do you think I’m telling you about, or do you suggest that instead of blindly doing low-level stocks, you might as well force yourself to look at high-level stocks and do more leading stocks. In the current speculative market, high-level stocks must be better than low-level stocks. Although it’s difficult to do it, and the cost of doing it wrong is indeed great, this is the only way to achieve rapid growth in the short term.
