Introduction to the report / core points
The industrial policy of "establishing first and then breaking" can reverse the investment contraction caused by the assessment limit of energy consumption intensity. At the same time, the greater expectation difference lies in the capital expenditure driven by the endogenous new energy transformation of the middle and downstream industries with operating difficulties. Industrial new energy is a strong and fast variable of the economy. The long-term development goal of carbon neutralization and carbon peak not only establishes the leading position of the new energy industry chain, but also drives the reconstruction of the comprehensive industrial system through the switching of production factors.
The government work report clearly optimizes the frequency of energy consumption intensity assessment and flexible energy consumption management, and emphasizes that "it is pointed out that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, while promoting the" dual control "of energy consumption to the" dual control "of total carbon emission and intensity", which is conducive to the restorative growth of high energy consuming industries such as coal power, chemical industry, nonferrous metals and building materials. It is estimated that the manufacturing industry will be the engine of the economy in 2022, and the annual growth rate will reach 11.1%.
Remind again that "new energy +" is a major expectation difference
In our report from new energy to "new energy +" -- a series of studies on embracing "new energy +" on November 20, 2021, we first proposed "new energy +", that is, industrial new energy. Once again, we suggest that "new energy +" refers to the deep integration of new energy with all economic and social fields, promoting the reform of energy production and consumption, promoting the wide application of low-carbon technologies, driving the new energy of the whole industrial chain, achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, and forming a new form of economic and social development based on new energy. In the medium and long term, "new energy +" will eventually penetrate into all fields of economy and society, but in the short term, the probability will be dominated by the fields related to industrial reengineering, supplemented by the construction industry and some tertiary industries. In addition to the new energy industry, the "new energy +" fields represented by electronics, chemical industry, machinery and construction, which have not been fully recognized, will contain significant expectations. (for more industry depth, please refer to the "new energy +" series reports of Zhejiang merchants and industry)
From the perspective of the transformation and development of manufacturing industry, the transformation of traditional cyclical industries to engage in photovoltaic industry is an option. Generally speaking, the photovoltaic industry chain includes upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers; The cells and modules in the midstream and the photovoltaic power generation system in the downstream belong to the main industrial chain of the photovoltaic industry. In addition, there are auxiliary industrial chains including inverter, glass and adhesive film. In the industrial chain, photovoltaic module manufacturing has attracted a large number of production enterprises due to its characteristics of low investment, short construction cycle, low technology and capital threshold and closest to the market. It is one of the fastest developing links in the photovoltaic industrial chain. The products of major manufacturers have passed relevant international certification. In the process of switching the main business of the manufacturing industry, it is bound to bring incremental machinery, plant and equipment expenses and form more physical fixed capital.
We believe that industrial new energy and industrial intelligence are two important main lines of China's high-quality development. Among them, industrial new energy is a fast variable and industrial intelligence is a slow variable. In 2022, under the background of triple pressure on China's economy and strong demand for steady growth, industrial new energy will promote manufacturing investment to become a strong variable for steady growth over infrastructure and real estate. Industrial new energy not only brings investment in energy-saving and low-carbon technological transformation of manufacturing industry, but also should pay attention to the cross industry investment brought by the transformation of new energy to adapt to the energy structure, such as the manufacturing investment brought by the transformation of traditional energy enterprises to participate in new energy production and the new competition of traditional manufacturing industry into the new energy industry chain.
The chain leader system will further strengthen the important contribution of industrial new energy to strengthening and supplementing the chain. Governments at all levels attach great importance to the development of new energy and its industrial chain. Its core principle is "what is lacking, what is weak and what is strong", solve the problems of supply shortage and bottleneck in the upstream and middle reaches of the manufacturing industry, accelerate the high-quality development of new energy, especially the industrial chain of energy storage and transportation transformation, and do a good job in "building the chain", "supplementing the chain", "extending the chain" and "strengthening the chain", Promote the extension of the industrial chain to the upstream and downstream, and continue to introduce industry driven, environment-friendly and capital and technology intensive projects.
The work of "chain leader system" focuses on clarifying the current situation of industrial development, promoting collaborative innovation of industrial chain, supporting excellent and strong chain main enterprises, accelerating the construction of key projects, strengthening investment attraction of industrial chain, promoting upstream and downstream cooperation of industrial chain, strengthening industrial element support and accelerating the construction of carrier in the park, and formulates "two maps and two libraries" (i.e. Panoramic Map of industrial chain, investment attraction map of industrial chain, key enterprise library and key project library of industrial chain), Actively carry out enterprise support and cultivation, accelerate project construction, strengthen investment attraction, and formulate corresponding work target list, project problem list and industrial chain investment attraction project directory.
Taking the new energy storage industry chain in Mawei, Fujian Province as an example, it has formed a new energy storage battery business with Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , times nebula and other enterprises as the "chain owners", focusing on the development of energy storage lithium battery testing equipment and intelligent equipment, energy storage intelligent converter and charging pile, integrated intelligent power supply system of "optical storage, charging and inspection", and Scud power, A number of leading smart energy enterprises with strong competitiveness have been formed.
Why can industrial new energy become a strong sustainable variable?
The implementation route of China's "double carbon" goal is gradually clear, the indicators are clear, and the operability is strong. The monetary policy tools for carbon emission reduction provide sufficient "ammunition". At the same time, there is a consensus on "standing first and breaking later". The restrictive industrial policies that hinder the large-scale promotion of industrial new energy have been adjusted adaptively, which helps to release a strong driving force for industrial new energy.
The goal of "double carbon" is broken down level by level and the task is clear, which helps enterprises in various industries to have a clear target in the process of industrial new energy. In 2021, the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on completely, accurately and comprehensively implementing the new development concept and doing a good job in carbon peaking and carbon neutralization and the action plan for carbon peaking before 2030 constitute the "1 + n" of China's carbon peaking and carbon neutralization
The core content of the policy system is to make a systematic plan and overall deployment for the further implementation of the dual carbon goal by various industries. The specific reform action plan of various industries may be accelerated this year. The guidelines for the implementation of energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation and upgrading in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2022 version) issued in February 2022 makes clear energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation plans for 17 sub industries such as oil refining, coal chemical industry, soda ash and yellow phosphorus. We believe that under the tone of "standing first and breaking later", accelerating the investment in capacity construction or current key points higher than the energy efficiency benchmark and benchmark level is expected to promote the high growth of technological transformation investment (see Figure 2 for the specific plan). The modern energy system plan for the 14th five year plan released in March 2022 points out that on the energy consumption side: implement energy conservation and carbon reduction actions in key industries; Vigorously promote the clean and efficient utilization of coal, and comprehensively promote the "three transformation linkage" of coal power energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation, flexibility transformation and heating transformation; On the energy supply side: by 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39%, which will increase by 5.8 percentage points during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
In the 2022 government work report, it is clear that "insist on building first and then breaking down", which is in line with our prediction in the annual strategy report "building first and then breaking down, industrial breakthrough" in November 2021. The government work report pointed out that the energy consumption intensity target will be comprehensively assessed during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control. We believe that under the background of steady growth this year, the dual control policy will be relaxed to help achieve the annual economic growth target, and the supply of high energy consuming raw materials and intermediate inputs supporting the production of new energy, such as silicon, soda ash and photovoltaic glass, is expected to be released.
We believe that industrial new energy is sustainable as a strong variable, which is due to the reform trend of new energy and the "favorable time, place and people" of industrial new energy. In the report from new energy to "new energy +" -- a series of studies on embracing "new energy +", we pointed out that China has the "time" to shift from new energy industrialization to industrial new energy industrialization, has occupied the "geographical advantage" of the highland in the field of new energy, and the "human harmony" formed by the unprecedented consensus of international double carbon and the joint efforts of China's industry, monetary and fiscal policies. At the same time, the new changes in the international situation in 2022 have highlighted the vulnerability of the energy structure dominated by fossil energy before geopolitics. If the price of traditional fossil energy remains high, it may promote the further transformation of the energy structure of fossil energy shortage countries to new energy.
How strong is industrial new energy as the main force supporting China's manufacturing investment beyond expectations?
We believe that the change brought about by carbon neutralization is not only in the new energy industrial chain, but will promote the upgrading and reconstruction of the whole manufacturing industry to match the energy change. For example, the product renewal or technological progress of an industrial link will drive the simultaneous renewal of other industries in the industrial chain, and then drive the supporting investment demand. The upgrading and reconstruction of the whole manufacturing industry will bring a lot of investment demand. It is expected that from 2022, the manufacturing industry will change from a driving variable along the economic growth to a driving variable of economic growth, while the real estate will only play a stabilizing role in supporting the economy.
We expect that the growth rate of manufacturing investment caused by industrial new energy in 2022 will be higher than that of infrastructure investment and real estate investment. It is expected that 6.2 percentage points of the 11.1% growth rate of manufacturing investment in 2022 will be driven by industrial new energy, with a contribution rate of nearly 60%.
On April 15, 2021, at the high-level seminar on "green finance and climate policy" jointly held by the people's Bank of China and the International Monetary Fund, Yi Gang, governor of the people's Bank of China, put forward that "it is estimated that China will need to invest 2.2 trillion yuan per year in carbon emission reduction before 2030 and 3.9 trillion yuan per year from 2030 to 2060. To realize these investments, government funds alone are far from enough, and more social capital needs to be guided and encouraged to participate". According to our approximate calculation, the growth rate of manufacturing investment at the end of 2021 is 13.5%, and the corresponding total annual investment scale is 24.3 trillion. Assuming that 1.5 trillion of the annual investment scale of carbon emission reduction is manufacturing investment, the growth rate of manufacturing investment driven by this scale alone will be 6.2 percentage points in 2022.
The positive externality of industrial new energy investment is highlighted. The new energy consumption system catalyzes more capital expenditure. Under the objectives of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutralization", China's energy system will develop in a diversified and clean direction. Industrial investment in various regions is expected to form a positive spillover effect and catalyze the formation of a virtuous circle of manufacturing investment. We expect that the interactive effect of manufacturing investment in various regions will become more prominent, which is expected to form a synchronous upward trend in the growth triangle, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the central and western regions, and the distribution of fixed asset investment will tend to be balanced. By region, from January to February 2022, the investment in the eastern region increased by 11.7%, the investment in the central region increased by 14.7%, the investment in the western region increased by 13.2%, and the investment in the northeast region increased by 18.6%.
On January 24, the general secretary of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed to strengthen the planning and construction of a new energy supply and consumption system based on large-scale wind and solar power bases, supported by clean, efficient, advanced and energy-saving coal power around them, and supported by stable, safe and reliable UHV power transmission and transformation lines. From the perspective of resource endowment and industrial agglomeration, China's scenery and other new energy resources are distributed in the West and northwest. The Yangtze River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei Bohai Rim mainly undertake the R & D and high-end manufacturing functions of new energy industry, while the central region undertakes the R & D and manufacturing functions of core materials. The accelerated construction of new energy supply and consumption system objectively requires UHV power transmission. At the same time, it is conducive to the development of scenery resources and surrounding coal power projects, and will also promote the establishment of new power system. Therefore, we judge that manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate.
Risk tip: global inflation exceeds expectations; Omicron spread beyond expectation; Covid-19 pneumonia presents a new variant virus.
