Abstract
The resumption of the smart phone industry found that two essential changes in the process of the industry, namely "core link - simplification of motherboard development" and "new cooperation mode of horizontal integration", promoted the ODM mode to become an important part of the mobile phone industry; In the field of intelligent electric vehicles, because electrification simplifies the "core link - three major parts", intellectualization has given birth to the "tier 0.5 new cooperation mode", and ODM mode is expected to be repeated in the intelligent electric vehicle industry.
Simplify the core links and reduce the industry threshold (mobile phone core link - mainboard development, automobile core link - "three major pieces"). Mobile phone: in the initial stage of the industry, the core link is mainboard development, and its software and hardware development difficulties ensure the high entry threshold of the industry; MediaTek's time is coming. Its turnkey scheme simplifies the core link - motherboard development, promotes the outsourcing of core links, and reduces the threshold of making mobile phones
Automobile: in the era of fuel vehicle, the core link is the "three major parts" of engine, gearbox and chassis, and its technical barriers ensure the high entry threshold of the industry; With the advent of the era of electrification, the electric drive system simplifies the core link - three electricity system, promotes the external mining of the core link, and reduces the threshold of vehicle manufacturing
The emergence of new cooperation modes reduces the difficulty of Supply Chain Management (mobile phone IDH / ODM mode and automobile tier 0.5 mode). Mobile phone: MediaTek's turnkey scheme leads the mobile phone industry chain from vertical integration in the initial stage to horizontal integration (chip IDH terminal manufacturers). IDH cooperation mode emerges. IDH is responsible for the development and integration of PCBA motherboard, and the difficulty of supply chain management of downstream terminal manufacturers is reduced.
Automobile: intellectualization leads the centralization of electronic and electrical architecture. The whole vehicle factory decouples the software and hardware, personally takes charge of the software development of domain controller, directly entrusts tier2 suppliers to carry out hardware assembly beyond Tier1, implements tier 0.5 cooperation mode, flattens the level, and China's tier 2 has obvious advantages in response speed and supporting services, reducing the difficulty of supply chain management.
ODM manufacturers have become an important part of the industry
Mobile phone: compared with IDH (R & D and design only), ODM mode fully covers the R & D and design, production and manufacturing and supply chain management of mobile phones, has a high threshold of competition, and can improve the profit margin by controlling the cost of the whole industry chain of R & D, production and supply chain management. In 2020, the shipment penetration rate of ODM / IDH smart phones reached 36%, and ODM manufacturers have become an important part of the mobile phone industry.
Automobile: through the sliding sector chassis and integrated die casting, the manufacturing of automobile lower body and upper body frame can be completed relatively easily, so as to realize the decoupling of automobile mechanical manufacturing and electronic manufacturing. The rest is mainly automobile electronic manufacturing. In the field of electronic manufacturing, ODM mode has been fully verified, and ODM is expected to become an important part of the intelligent electric vehicle industry.
In the smart phone industry, ODM manufacturers dominate the middle and low-end thousand yuan machine market by virtue of their efficient development of platform products and cost advantages; Intelligent electric vehicle ODM manufacturers can also efficiently develop and reduce costs through the vehicle platform, and seize the medium and low-end market with leapfrog intelligent configuration. It is estimated that the global ODM model market space will be 500 billion yuan + in 2027, and about 250 billion yuan in China.
DOM manufacturers of intelligent electric vehicles can integrate highly integrated electric drive system, sliding sector chassis, integrated die-casting body and other systems through the modular standardized vehicle platform, so as to improve the high universality of parts, realize efficient development and reduce costs; In addition, the cost of single vehicle intelligence can be reduced through hardware standardization and software generalization, and the competitive advantage of ODM models can be guaranteed by leapfrog intelligent configuration in the low price belt.
In 2021, the proportion of BEV passenger car sales of 50 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 000 yuan decreased to 30% from 38% in 2020. After taking into account the fuel vehicle, the proportion of passenger car sales in this price belt is about 60%. The reason for the significant imbalance of structure is that this price belt is limited by the scarcity of high-quality electric supply, and the intelligent electric vehicle ODM is expected to deliver high-quality models for this price belt by virtue of its cost advantage, so as to seize the market at a leading intelligent level.
By assuming the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 21-27 years, the proportion of sales volume in the price band of 50 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 000 yuan, and the proportion of ODM models in this price band, according to the calculation of the average price of ODM models of 100000 yuan, we expect the global ODM model market space to be 500 billion yuan + and the Chinese ODM model market space to be about 250 billion yuan in 2027.
Investment advice
ODM manufacturers of intelligent electric vehicles will take the lead in benefiting from the general trend of the industry; The more far-reaching significance is that the downstream of the intelligent electric vehicle ODM industry is expected to be more concentrated than the traditional vehicle industry, and there is no in-depth cooperation with foreign head suppliers. The development of ODM is expected to bring about the reconstruction of the supply chain system and provide a good opportunity for domestic suppliers who can closely bind ODM with high-speed capacity.
Watch Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) (covered by electronic team) and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (covered by automobile team).
Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) : the leader of vertically integrated consumer electronics precision manufacturing, with ODM experience and customer resources, has laid out the core parts of intelligent electric vehicles such as automobile harness, connector, intelligent cockpit and automatic driving, and has invested with Chery new energy with vehicle engineering & manufacturing capacity to engage in intelligent electric vehicle ODM It is estimated that in 2027, the ODM revenue volume of intelligent electric vehicle of the joint venture will be about 100 billion yuan and the profit volume will be about 10 billion yuan; Taking ODM as the outlet, Tencent aims to grow rapidly into one of the top ten tier 1 in the world. Tier 1 business has been CAGR + 28% for 15 years.
Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) : actively transform, comply with the wave of intelligent electrification, open up the tier 0.5 mode through cooperation with Tesla, accumulate ODM customer resources with the full coverage strategy of new forces, and Tuopu has built an incremental parts platform for intelligent electric vehicles, including integrated die casting, skateboard chassis and other businesses, which is expected to provide full docking and supply for ODM manufacturers. It is estimated that in 2027, the revenue of Tuopu's supporting ODM models will be about 20 billion yuan, which is 1.7 times of the company's revenue in 2021, and the profit of supporting ODM models will be about 2 billion yuan, which is 2.0 times of the profit in 2021.
Risk tip: the customer expansion of intelligent electric vehicle ODM manufacturers is less than expected, the development of vehicle platform of intelligent electric vehicle ODM manufacturers is less than expected, and the cost & Intelligent advantage of ODM intelligent electric vehicle is less than expected. The calculation is subjective.
