Key points:
Traditional Chinese Medicine II rose 1.09% last week. Driven by the epidemic related sectors, the pharmaceutical sector rebounded in an all-round way. Last week, pharmaceutical biology closed at 996036 points, up 1.08%; Traditional Chinese Medicine II closed at 745195 points, up 1.09%; Chemical pharmaceutical closed at 1119979 points, up 0.9%; Biological products closed at 110143 points, up 6.29%; Pharmaceutical business closed at 629683 points, up 2.92%; Medical devices closed at 881746 points, down 0.66%; Medical services closed at 937225 points, down 1.16%. Driven by the epidemic related sectors, the pharmaceutical sector showed a rebound trend.
In terms of the company’s performance, the top companies are: Shanxi Panlong Pharmaceutical Group Limited By Share Ltd(002864) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) , Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Shanghai Shenqi Pharmaceutical Investment Management Co.Ltd(600613) , Kunming Longjin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002750) ; Companies with poor performance include: ST Kangmei, Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , St eye medicine, Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) .
Traditional Chinese medicine PE (TTM) increased 0.62 times and Pb (LF) increased 0.05 times month on month. Last week, PE in traditional Chinese medicine sector was 33.92 times, and the maximum value of PE in recent year was 38.81 and the minimum value was 28.78; The current Pb is 3.03 times, the maximum value of Pb in recent year is 3.56, and the minimum value is 2.62 PE in the traditional Chinese medicine sector increased by 0.62 times and Pb by 0.05 times. The valuation center of the traditional Chinese medicine industry is now slightly higher than the median level in the past year. The valuation premium rate of traditional Chinese medicine sector relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 175.34%.
It is suggested to pay attention to the targets related to covid-19 epidemic and the performance of the annual report exceeding the expected targets. Recently, the relevant policies on covid-19 detection kit have been frequent. As of March 23, the State Food and drug administration has approved 19 covid-19 virus antigen detection reagent products. Antigen detection, small molecule oral drugs and traditional Chinese medicine related to covid-19 detection and diagnosis and treatment are expected to play an important role. In terms of traditional Chinese medicine, in addition to the original Lianhua Qingwen capsule (granule), Jinhua qinggan granule and other drugs, acupuncture treatment is also added. It is suggested to pay attention to the drugs and manufacturers related to the epidemic and the service targets of traditional Chinese medicine.
Traditional Chinese medicine has played a positive role in previous public health events. With the support of policies, we believe that traditional Chinese medicine still has great investment opportunities. From the demand side, the rigid demand characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry and the upgrading of pharmaceutical consumption jointly support the steady growth of the demand of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. From the perspective of policy, a series of favorable policies have been formed to promote the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, the development of formula particles, the support of medical insurance and payment policies, and the continuous addition of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces can not exceed 25%, bringing policy dividends and new demand to the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
The unique advantage of “preventing disease” brings development opportunities to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. From the perspective of performance, the traditional Chinese medicine industry has walked out of the low point and showed a marginal improvement trend. From the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry still has relatively obvious valuation advantages. “Policy + pharmaceutical consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantages” jointly build investment opportunities for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. Cost promotion constitutes a short-term driving factor. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven. (1) Pay attention to the innovation of modern traditional Chinese medicine, and pay attention to the innovation targets of modern traditional Chinese medicine with strong R & D strength and layout of large categories (large market: cardio cerebrovascular + fast growth: pediatric drugs); (2) Pay attention to the advantages of brand traditional Chinese medicine, formula and raw materials, and jointly build a moat of brand traditional Chinese medicine; (3) Benefit from consumption upgrading and pay attention to the subject matter of industrial chain extension and strong brand advantage.
At present, it is in the performance disclosure season. It is suggested to pay attention to the pre disclosure of the performance of listed companies and the subject matter with excellent performance in the annual report.
Risk tips
(1) stricter industrial policies; (2) Industry and listed company performance fluctuation risk.
