Affordable rental housing: policy continues to increase
Since the end of 2020, affordable rental housing policies have been intensively introduced. In July 2021, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on accelerating the development of affordable rental housing, and the basic systems and support policies were gradually implemented; In December 2021, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the central economic work conference attached great importance to the construction of affordable housing and put the affordable housing policy at the forefront of the real estate policy; In March 2022, the government work report mentioned "promoting the construction of affordable housing" and "doing our best to help new citizens and young people alleviate housing difficulties".
Indemnificatory rental housing: the goal is clearer and the degree of marketization is higher. It belongs to an important part of the housing security system. Compared with public rental housing and common property right housing, indemnificatory rental housing: 1) there is no income threshold for the target group; 2) Investment and supply are more market-oriented; 3) The implementation area is more clear. Under the tone of steady growth, we attach importance to the incremental demand brought by affordable housing. Combined with the real estate policy statement of the central economic work conference in 2020 and 2021, we think we need to focus on two points: putting the same right of rent and purchase on the agenda and reasonably regulating the rent level.
Since 2021h2, many cities have announced their plans for affordable rental housing during the 14th Five Year Plan period. We estimate that the total number of affordable rental housing plans during the 14th Five Year Plan period is 7.67 million, and 2.36 million in 2022, which has a 4% pulling effect on the new construction area of houses and 2% on the investment in real estate development. In January 2022, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development mentioned that "we will vigorously increase the supply of affordable rental housing, focus on the net inflow of population and large cities, and raise 2.4 million affordable rental housing units throughout the year". Our model is reasonable, and the calculation of the number of affordable rental housing units is basically close to the policy guidelines.
Benefit direction of building materials sector: green building materials
With reference to the standards formulated by various provinces and cities, we think we can focus on energy-saving building materials. The government pays more attention to the environmental protection and energy conservation of building materials, and the proportion of green building materials is expected to increase. Pay attention to energy-saving doors and windows, energy-saving wall materials, system solutions and other directions. External walls and doors and windows are the key to controlling building energy consumption. The application of systematic doors and windows and thermal insulation materials can effectively reduce power consumption. In terms of subject matter, we recommend green products [ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ], energy-saving glass [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ] [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ], VIP core material [ Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) ], VIP Board [ Fujian Supertech Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688398) ].
Benefit direction of construction sector: steel structure and prefabricated building
Among the newly started prefabricated buildings in 2019, commercial housing, public buildings and indemnificatory housing accounted for 40.7%, 21.6% and 13.4% respectively. The policy promotes the level of affordable rental housing. On the one hand, prefabricated construction can effectively shorten the construction cycle of affordable housing projects and reduce labor costs, which is expected to benefit simultaneously. On the other hand, the life cycle cost of steel structure housing is slightly lower than that of prefabricated concrete structure, which is more in line with the national initiative of green emission reduction. In addition, affordable rental housing has the attribute of social public welfare and low cost sensitivity. In terms of subject matter, focus on [ Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ], the leader of steel structure manufacturing, with obvious advantages of scale + management; [ Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) ], the field of modular design and BIM architectural design has the first mover advantage, and the platform management brings quality and efficiency improvement.
Risk warning: the promotion and construction of affordable housing policies are not as expected; There may be errors in the calculation; Risks related to the impact of the epidemic.
