For a long time in the past, the photovoltaic industry has been a pattern of coexistence of specialized manufacturers and integrated manufacturers: the former focuses on one or two links of the industry and achieves the best of products; The latter carries out the layout of the whole industrial chain, and the products extend from silicon wafers and batteries to components, so as to maximize the internal retention of profits. However, this pattern seems to be being broken, and integration has gradually become the mainstream.
The reporter of the Securities Times noted that recently, several photovoltaic integration projects have been started one after another. Dongfang, one of the top five silicon materials, hopes to invest in the whole industrial chain project of circular economy in Ningxia to form a full coverage from upstream polysilicon to downstream components. In addition, established leaders such as Longji, Jingke and Jingao also disclosed their production expansion plans to expand the advantages of integrated production capacity.
Behind the intensive landing of photovoltaic integration projects, it also exacerbated the market's concern about the overcapacity crisis. Last week, industry authorities warned that silicon materials may once again enter the vicious circle of supply-demand mismatch. At the same time, integration projects are quietly changing the layout of China's photovoltaic industry. New regions such as Shanxi and Gansu are becoming a new hot spot for photovoltaic investment.
intensive commencement of integration project
In 2022, the investment in large-scale photovoltaic projects is still hot, and shows the characteristics of accelerated integrated capacity layout.
On March 18, Dongfang hope Ningxia crystal new energy materials project was launched. The first phase of the project plans to build 125000 tons of polycrystalline silicon, 145000 tons of industrial silicon, 10GW single crystal, 10GW chip, 10GW battery, 25gw components, etc. Finally, the upstream and downstream integrated whole industry chain project with an annual output of 400000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon, 490000 tons of industrial silicon and single crystal, silicon wafer, battery chip and battery module will be completed.
Two days later, the upstream and downstream collaborative project of Baofeng polysilicon in Guazhou, Jiuquan, Gansu, under Baofeng group started. According to the agreement signed between Baofeng group and Gansu Jiuquan government, the project includes an annual output of 350000 tons of industrial silicon, 300000 tons of polysilicon, 50gw pull crystal chips, 30GW photovoltaic modules, and 15gw photovoltaic and wind power plants.
Dongfang hopes to be a first-line silicon material enterprise, while Baofeng group is involved in photovoltaic manufacturing for the first time. From the perspective of the recent layout adjustment of photovoltaic enterprises, the upstream polysilicon is the core link to realize the integrated layout. After all, since the second half of 2020, the tight supply of silicon materials and the soaring price still haunt the downstream manufacturers.
There are two typical enterprises here. One is Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) . The company plans to lead the investment and construction of 200000 tons of industrial silicon and 100000 tons of high-purity polysilicon projects in Gujiao City, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province. The total construction period of the project is about 5 years. It is constructed in two phases, with a total investment of about 14 billion yuan, of which the investment of phase I project is about 4.3 billion yuan Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) current business involves photovoltaic cells, modules, backplanes, etc.
The other is Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) . The company plans to invest in the production of 150000 tons of high-purity industrial silicon and 100000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon in Guyang County, Baotou City, Inner Mongolia, so as to expand new silicon supply channels; Previously, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) has participated in the 300000 ton granular silicon project of poly GCL, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) is one of the new players in the silicon wafer market, and the company's existing monocrystalline silicon production capacity has reached 30GW.
In addition, established manufacturers such as Longji, Jingke and Jingao have also invested heavily to expand integrated production capacity. Among them, Longji expanded 20GW monocrystalline silicon rod and chip project, 30GW high-efficiency monocrystalline cell project and 5GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project with 19.5 billion yuan; Jingke energy expanded 30GW single crystal pull rod project and 24gw component project with 20.8 billion yuan; Jingao plans to invest 10 billion yuan to expand projects such as no less than 10GW batteries and 5GW components.
It is worth mentioning that Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) has always advertised its professional positioning, focusing on silicon and battery. Recently, industry media PV tech issued a document predicting the possibility of Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) becoming the world's first vertically integrated head assembly supplier in 2025. One of the background is that according to the prediction of the agency, Tongwei will rank among the top 10 silicon wafer production capacity and the top 15 component production capacity this year.
The reporter noted that not long ago, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) completed a 12 billion yuan convertible bond fund-raising. One of the fund-raising and investment projects is the 15gw single crystal pull rod square cutting project. The market has fantasies about whether Tongwei will set foot in other links such as silicon wafers on a large scale. In a research report of the investment promotion and fixed income team, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) was clearly described as a "silicon material leader gradually moving towards integration".
authorities warn of surplus crisis
From the current situation, most of the head component manufacturers have established an integrated production capacity pattern, and the first-line silicon material manufacturers are also expanding to the downstream links, and the integration is in full swing. In terms of the advantages and disadvantages of integration and specialization, integration can keep the profits inside the enterprise to the greatest extent. Just as when the silicon material price soared last year, it can be said that the whole industry is "working" for the silicon material factory; For another example, the gross profit margin of silicon wafer was once as high as 30%, which took away most of the profits of the industrial chain, and the downstream specialized manufacturers were once struggling.
A professional manufacturer interviewed told reporters that although some manufacturers believe that opening up the industrial chain can improve the anti risk ability of enterprises, it is still difficult to distinguish which kind of professional and integrated layout has more advantages. "Professional layout is more conducive to the creativity of enterprises and the ability of continuous product improvement; the products of integrated manufacturers are used and digested internally, and the pursuit of innovation and lower cost is weaker. After all, the products of professional manufacturers need to be sold."
When the reporter called Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , the company responded that in the long run, the company is more optimistic about the professional layout. "Of course, as industry participants, it is impossible for us to abandon the technology of any link and consider the development of other links alone. For example, the combination of battery technology with downstream packaging technology and whether the battery can meet the expectations after terminal packaging need R & D follow-up."
In the interview, insiders fed back to reporters that although specialized manufacturers also exist, their voice is weakening and subject to certain restrictions, and profit protection is facing certain challenges under fierce competition. However, an important problem for photovoltaic enterprises to implement the integrated layout is that once they get involved in the downstream field, they may have a direct competitive relationship with their former customers.
This situation has been common. Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) used to focus on silicon wafer. Around 2020, the company quickly expanded its component business and ranked first in the global component shipment. However, it also made it compete with former battery and component customers. Therefore, the market once called for independent third-party silicon wafer suppliers. For another example, Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) after expanding the silicon wafer business, the single crystal furnace business began to shrink the export scale and turn to self use, which is also due to the potential direct competition with past customers.
The integrated layout of photovoltaic enterprises has accelerated the capacity expansion of all links, especially at the silicon material end. Last week, the silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association issued a rare warning that once the supply of silicon exceeds the demand, it is very easy to have the extreme situation of upside down of cost and price for a long time, and then enter the vicious circle of insufficient capital investment and serious mismatch between supply and demand in the industry again, aggravating the disorderly competition in the market.
According to the calculation of the silicon branch, the total capacity increment of newly-built and proposed silicon materials is about 3.5 million tons / year. In 2025, the terminal demand is optimistic. It is estimated that 400gw and the demand for silicon materials is about 1.5 million tons. Compared with the demand increment of about 900000 tons in 2021, the expansion capacity increment is significantly greater than the demand increment.
For the potential overcapacity of silicon material, the response of a leading silicon material manufacturer seems very calm. "In addition to silicon material, the planned capacity of other links also faces the risk of excess; in addition, the planned capacity also faces many uncertainties in the process of landing. Especially for new entrants, the silicon material project will take at least two years from commencement to capacity climbing and full release. During this period, it will also face problems such as whether there are sufficient talents in the industry and the supply of core equipment. As far as I know, the production is delayed due to the unsatisfied core equipment There are precedents. "
local new forces rise gradually
With the deepening of photovoltaic integration pattern, the regional layout of China's photovoltaic industry is also undergoing significant changes. In the past, due to the abundant hydropower resources and low power cost in Yunnan and Sichuan, and the manufacturing links such as silicon material and pull rod were large power consumers, many photovoltaic projects were arranged here; In addition, a large number of photovoltaic cell and module enterprises have also gathered in Jiangsu, Anhui and other places.
From the disclosed photovoltaic projects, Shanxi, Gansu and other regions that are not strong traditional photovoltaic industries are rising. At the same time, many newly planned silicon projects are located in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other places, and China's photovoltaic industry has quietly changed.
As the main R & D and operation company of silicon wafer Co., Ltd. in Taiyuan in October last year, Zeng said that he would jointly set up the R & D and operation projects of silicon wafer Co., Ltd. with other joint-stock companies in Taiyuan in the future. However, at the beginning of this month, Hunan Yujing Machinery Co.Ltd(002943) announced again that as the investment project is a high energy consuming project, the energy consumption index of the proposed project location is relatively tight, and there is no substantive progress in the investment project, the company plans to terminate this foreign investment.
In fact, a few days after Hunan Yujing Machinery Co.Ltd(002943) terminated its investment in Taiyuan, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) disclosed the above plan to invest in industrial silicon and polysilicon projects in Taiyuan. Previously, the Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) annual output of 16GW high-efficiency single crystal battery intelligent factory project has been implemented in Shanxi.
The reason why Shanxi is so active stems from a document in December 2020. At that time, the Department of industry and information technology of Shanxi Province issued the three-year action plan for the development of photovoltaic manufacturing industry in Shanxi Province (20202022), which proposed to integrate and improve the photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain such as silicon wafer, cell chip and module, focusing on Jinzhong, Luliang and Changzhi, so as to create an ecosystem of the whole photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain. According to the information at the end of last year, Shanxi comprehensive reform demonstration zone plans to build a 100 billion photovoltaic industry chain cluster.
The reporter noted that behind the changing landscape of China's photovoltaic industry, many provinces have issued policies to encourage and support the development of new energy and new material industries. In the opinions on cultivating and expanding the new energy industry chain, Gansu proposed that relying on the construction of clean energy base in Hexi Corridor, photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises should be guided to concentrate in the park; According to Ningxia photovoltaic industry planning (20212030), by 2030, the production capacity of polycrystalline silicon, monocrystalline silicon, batteries, modules and other links in the region will reach 400000 tons, 200GW, 50gw and 50gw.
In view of this situation, insiders conveyed another view to reporters. "The state has delegated the approval power of photovoltaic installation indicators to local governments. All localities carry out competitive resource allocation according to the local power consumption. The competition among leading enterprises is very fierce in order to obtain indicators. In order to obtain a larger market share, they need to convert resources with local governments and enterprises to invest in exchange for local photovoltaic installation indicators."
In fact, this view has also been confirmed in the recent investment in several integration projects. Baofeng group has provided 15gw photovoltaic and wind power plants in the cooperation with Jiuquan, Gansu Province In the Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) invested silicon material project, it is also clear that Guyang county government gives the company the total quota of 3.8gw photovoltaic power station and 1.7gw wind power station.
