Lithium hexafluorophosphate, the core raw material of electrolyte, has periodic properties. After a year and a half of sharp rise, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has turned downward since March, becoming the lithium battery material with an earlier decline in price. With the release of manufacturers' new production capacity, the industry expects to usher in an inflection point in the balance of supply and demand this year. In 2025, the demand of the downstream industry has increased by 500000 tons, but it still needs to be closely supported by the strong demand of the current year.
As the market becomes more crowded, the head effect will become more prominent. At present, it seems that the pattern of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) double leaders is difficult to shake temporarily. The head company has advantages in production, cost and customers, and the industry concentration will continue to increase. The innovation of new materials is also under way. Lifsi, a potential competitor of lithium hexafluorophosphate, will take advantage of the east wind of 4680 to accelerate the pace of industrialization.
mid year meeting the inflection point of supply and demand
Lithium hexafluorophosphate, which soared last year, has shown weakness recently.
According to the data of xinlune lithium battery, the average market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate in China fell from 590000 yuan / ton to 550000 yuan / ton on March 3. After two weeks, it fell to 515000 yuan / ton again on March 21, a decrease of nearly 13% from the peak. Prior to this, lithium hexafluorophosphate increased for 19 months from 69500 yuan / ton in August 2020 to a record high of 59000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this year, an increase of 749%.
While the price peaked, the long-standing supply tension loosened. Xinlune lithium analyst told the reporter of securities times · e company that on the one hand, the Spring Festival is the traditional off-season of electrolyte and automobile market. On the other hand, the recent surge of lithium carbonate has restrained the operating load of downstream small and medium-sized battery manufacturers. Some digital or small battery manufacturers only maintain basic production. Since the Spring Festival holiday, the market is still in the recovery period. In addition, the output of some new capacity is climbing around New Year's day, The tension between market supply and demand has eased slightly compared with that before the Spring Festival. Therefore, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been consolidated. At present, the industrial chain is still in the process of game between supply and demand.
"It's mainly that some retail orders are falling in price." A person from the lithium battery industry told reporters that the production capacity of large lithium hexafluorophosphate plants had not been released years ago. Some electrolyte manufacturers did not hesitate to purchase goods at high prices in order to ensure supply. Recently, there were fewer bulk orders, and the price also fell. Recently, Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) and Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) have new production capacity. According to the company's announcement, 5000 tons and 6000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate were put into operation at the end of last year, bringing new increment to the market supply.
There are many low price long orders in the lithium hexafluorophosphate market, and the price difference between long and short orders also provides room for price reduction. Analysts of xinlune lithium battery said that a remarkable feature of the lithium hexafluorophosphate market is the price dual track system. Due to the more obvious shortage of battery materials such as positive and negative electrodes last year, many manufacturers locked in long-term orders, and the long-term unit price is generally lower than the market, "The battery factory is forced to press the price upstream by the material cost. At present, the prices of positive and negative materials cannot be pressed. When there is a certain elastic space in the electrolyte market, especially the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, if it can be pressed, it will be pressed, resulting in a certain price pressure on the electrolyte and material market."
In addition, the unstable material characteristics of lithium hexafluorophosphate lead to low inventory, which also amplifies the periodic fluctuation to a certain extent. Moke, the founder of true lithium research, told reporters that lithium hexafluorophosphate is a necessary solute for the manufacture of electrolyte, and the electrolyte is generally not suitable for long-term inventory. Battery factories generally buy it immediately and purchase it one month in advance. From this perspective, the inventory of lithium hexafluorophosphate in the electrolyte plant should not be too large, so the excess supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate will be first reflected in the market.
It is generally expected that lithium hexafluorophosphate will usher in the inflection point of supply and demand this year. The reporter found that according to the plan, the production capacity that can be implemented this year mainly comes from Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) 80000 tons (fixed assets), Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) 35000 tons, Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) 10000 tons, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) 2000 tons, with a total increase of 127000 tons, and the existing production capacity has exceeded 200000 tons. However, on the demand side, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) last year, it was estimated that the global demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate would be 92300 tons in 2022 Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) Chairman Xu Jinfu gave a more optimistic expectation in his speech at the high tech lithium battery forum. The demand is expected to reach 112500 tons this year. In contrast, this year's production capacity will far exceed demand.
It is worth noting that capacity is not exactly equal to supply. For example, Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) although it will have a production capacity of 55000 tons by the end of this year, it is expected that the shipment volume this year will be 35000 ~ 40000 tons. The relevant person in charge of the company told reporters that it is mainly because part of the production capacity is landed at the end of the year, and it takes a process for the enterprise's production capacity to climb to full capacity. In addition, the shipment volume should be adjusted according to the relationship between market supply and demand.
Xinlune lithium analyst said that according to the calculation of xinlune database, the overall capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate this year is sufficient relative to the downstream demand. However, due to the influence of demand, cost, epidemic situation, external environment and other factors on the upstream and downstream production expansion progress, there will be a certain mismatch period between supply and demand. The main production capacity of hexafluorophosphate will not be put into operation until the middle of the year. For example, 10000 tons of Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) will be put into operation in April, 15000 tons of Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) will be put into operation from May to June and 20000 tons of hexafluorophosphate will be put into operation before the end of the year. It usually takes a few months to climb up production, so the supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate will be slightly tight in the first half of the year.
capacity planning far exceeds demand
The soaring price of lithium hexafluorophosphate last year triggered frequent production expansion plans in the industry, but the risk of overcapacity has been obvious. The reporter of the securities times sorted out 10 listed companies involved in lithium hexafluorophosphate. According to the plan, the production capacity will be close to 500000 tons by 2025.
This figure has exceeded the expected demand of all parties in the market. Gaogong lithium battery predicts that the total demand for lithium battery in power battery, energy storage and other fields will reach 1800gwh in 2025 If the proportion of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries is estimated by half, the corresponding demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate is 216000 tons. Since different figures will be obtained under different assumptions, it can also be referred to that the demand in the above Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) research report is expected to be 237600 tons in 2025 Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) chairman Li Shijiang predicted 365600 tons at the high tech lithium battery forum.
\u3000\u3000 "However, the expansion plan of lithium hexafluorophosphate announced by the company may not be able to be fully implemented, and the production capacity investment rhythm of large head plants is also affected by demand and technical factors; the expansion plan of some new plants does not rule out the phenomenon of following the trend, and there are certain variables in the actual production capacity implementation. In addition, lithium hexafluorophosphate has a high technical threshold, and the new line commissioning of some small plants takes a long time. Last year, there were some small plants with lithium hexafluorophosphate Return of electrolyte products due to quality problems. " Xinlune lithium analyst said. The actual production capacity of some cross-border manufacturers deserves vigilance. For example, Tianyu environment, which is mainly engaged in garden engineering, set foot in lithium battery by means of acquisition. In February, it announced that it plans to increase the capital of Qinghai juzhiyuan, a lithium hexafluorophosphate manufacturer, with a production capacity of 2000 tons and a production line of 4000 tons under construction, and promised a profit of no less than 1.2 billion yuan in three years.
This acquisition has aroused regulatory attention. The Shanghai stock exchange requires the company to explain the rationality of transaction pricing and performance commitment, and the reasons for the loss of the main business of the target company and Tianyu environment.
In fact, lithium hexafluorophosphate has always had strong periodic properties. The last business cycle was from 2015 to 2016. At that time, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from less than 100000 yuan / ton in mid-2015 to 420000 yuan / ton in 2016, with a gross profit margin of more than 45%.
The price increase also attracted many entrants. With the release of production capacity in 2017, the decline of superimposed subsidies led to the decline of the new energy vehicle market, the supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate exceeded the demand, and the price fell by more than half in a year. The low price in 2020 was even less than 70000 yuan / ton, close to the production cost line.
This cycle started in August 2020. The recovery of new energy vehicle market, especially the penetration in the field of private cars, has driven a new round of demand. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by more than 7 times, ranking first among all kinds of lithium battery materials. Industry insiders generally believe that this cycle is not as usual, mainly due to the strong support from the demand side of the price rise. In particular, new energy vehicles have reached the inflection point of accelerating the improvement of penetration rate and realized market-oriented driving. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the wholesale sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger vehicles in 2021 has reached 3.3 million, with a penetration rate of nearly 15%; It is estimated that the sales volume will reach about 5.5 million in 2022, and the penetration rate will reach 25%.
Lithium hexafluorophosphate manufacturers are still enjoying the dividends of the rising cycle. The annual report shows a year-on-year growth of 9.029 billion , with the latest revenue of ; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 25 times; Among them, the revenue of the new material sector of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 228.46% and the gross profit margin reached 50.78% Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) lithium hexafluorophosphate revenue increased by 381.28% and the gross profit margin reached 62.26%, driving the company to turn losses in 2021.
The growth momentum continued in the first quarter. Companies such as Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) , Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) , Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) and others had good results in the first quarter, and the profit growth rate was several times as high. "Lithium hexafluorophosphate has experienced three rises in the past decade. At present, the statistics show that a complete rise and fall cycle is about 6 years. It is not ruled out that the industry growth will prolong the industry cycle. The current rise cycle may be prolonged by the downstream demand, but it also depends on the actual supply and demand. For example, the current rise in the price of upstream raw materials has led to the price adjustment of terminal vehicle manufacturers, which may affect the downstream demand to a certain extent. ”Xinlun lithium analyst said.
head effect becomes more prominent
When the production capacity is released, the market competition of lithium hexafluorophosphate will become more intense. At that time, manufacturers with advantages in production experience, cost control, environmental protection, energy consumption and customer resources will stand the test, and the industry concentration under the head effect may continue to improve.
At present, the first echelon in the field of lithium hexafluorophosphate includes Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) and Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) , both of which have an output of more than 10000 tons in 2021. In addition, the output of Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) , Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) and other companies is also more than 2000 tons. Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) expanded from solute to solvent and developed into a one-stop supplier of electrolyte materials The original businesses of China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) , Shenzhen Sunxing Light Alloys Materials Co.Ltd(603978) and other new entrants are mostly related to fluorine chemical industry.
Manufacturers with fast production capacity can occupy the first mover advantage and avoid the crowded stage of centralized release of production capacity in the later stage Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) 5000 tons of production capacity was originally planned to reach the production capacity in January this year, but it was actually realized in December last year. The person in charge of the company told reporters that thanks to the experience accumulated in manufacturing technology over the years, Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) has fast and mature project construction capacity, and has stable control over the cost and quality of all links, which can not be achieved by other new manufacturers.
Environmental protection requirements have gradually become barriers to competition. "Now we obviously feel that the government is increasingly strict in the approval of environmental impact assessment and energy consumption, but this is actually a good thing, which is conducive to the long-term sustainable development of the industry. If the threshold is too loose, it will cause a waste of resources and harm to the industry." Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) relevant person in charge said.
Zeng Youpeng, an analyst at Jibang consulting, told reporters that the head effect of the industry will be more significant in the future, and enterprises that can obtain fluorine and phosphorus raw materials at low cost will have more competitive advantages. The key to determining the material cost of lithium hexafluorophosphate products is the acquisition cost of fluorine, phosphorus and lithium. At present, China has relatively sufficient access to fluorine and phosphorus, and lithium is mainly obtained through lithium carbonate.
The price of lithium carbonate in China is consolidating at a high level, and the latest quotation in the market remains above 500000 yuan / ton, but there has been obvious resistance in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. Merco said that the downward speed of lithium hexafluorophosphate price depends on the lithium price. If the lithium price is relatively strong, its downward speed will be relatively slow, otherwise it will be very fast. In addition, most of the head manufacturers have locked some sales through long-term association orders. For example, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG new energy Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) and Byd Company Limited(002594) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , enchem Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) and Byd Company Limited(002594) and Cathay Huarong Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) gradually form a close relationship between upstream and downstream. The reporter found that the above long-term association orders are more than one year, and the longest signing is until 2026, mostly in the form of locking quantity without locking price.
Among them, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) are deeply bound to each other Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) the lithium hexafluorophosphate is basically used for self supply, and the electrolyte produced is sold to customers. According to the announcement of the company, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will be the largest customer of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) in 2021, with sales accounting for 50.47%, far higher than 5.99% of the second largest customer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) signed a contract with Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) in May 2021. It is expected to purchase electrolyte from Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) before the end of June 2022, and the corresponding consumption of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to be 15000 tons. It is roughly estimated that this batch of products can supply more than 100GWh of battery production, exceeding the annual loading volume of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021 by 80.51gwh.
\u3000\u3000 " Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) 's leading position in the industry is hard to shake in the short term. The company's market advantages in raw materials, capacity scale and customers can ensure its sales share and profit margin. Due to its cost advantage, the price of the long-term association is also low. Even if the market price falls, it is difficult to be lower than the price of the God given long-term association. The market predicts that God given will adjust its competitive strategy and expand its customer base this year, and God given's sales will also affect the market price Bring a certain impact. " Xinlune lithium analyst said.
The concentration of lithium hexafluorophosphate industry may be further improved in the future Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) analysts said that from 2016 to 2020, CR3 fluctuated by 50%. It is estimated that by 2023, after the first batch of production capacity is released, the industry CR3 will be increased to 75.43% and Cr5 will be increased to 85.43%. It is worth mentioning that the new lithium salt lifsi (lithium difluorosulfimide) is gradually entering the industrial vision, and there is a relatively large demand for ternary batteries. Zeng Youpeng said that lifsi has been applied in some battery manufacturers because of its good thermal and electrochemical stability, higher conductivity and improved cycle life of lithium batteries Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) and other companies have layout.
However, at present, lifsi has high cost and small output, and has not formed competitive pressure on lithium hexafluorophosphate. This year, Tesla 4680 cylindrical battery is gradually moving towards mass production, which may accelerate the application of lifsi. It is understood that the 4680 battery will probably use lifsi as the electrolyte solute, and the addition proportion of lifsi will be increased from 0.5% to about 15%.
