Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern. The three major stock indexes opened low in the morning and maintained the green market shock. The weakness was more obvious. In the afternoon, the index showed signs of upward attack, especially the gem index, which once turned red. Unfortunately, it was difficult to stand alone and weaken again. Finally, the three major indexes closed down slightly.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the current market upside power has changed from strong to weak, and the market sentiment has failed to form an effective organization for the time being. After the oversold rebound, some short-term bottom reading funds choose to stop profit and leave the market, and the undertaking strength of new funds is relatively weak for the time being. In terms of operation, investors can appropriately reduce their positions to small positions for short-term operation, wait for the market to bottom again and stabilize before operation. In the short term, it is mainly wait-and-see .
Technically speaking, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that on Thursday, the A-share market soared, encountered obstacles and fell slightly, the international situation continued to be volatile, and investors' risk aversion improved significantly. The stock indexes of the two cities fell step by step after jumping short and opening low in the morning, and the Shanghai index gained support near 3236. The pharmaceutical, chemical fertilizer and some resource sectors led the rise in turn. The mainstream industries leading the rise in the market in the early stage fluctuated and fell one after another, with a trading volume of 920 billion yuan, stock game features become increasingly prominent .
In terms of the future market, the institution further analyzed that the current Shanghai index has a weak upward attack, and the regional pressure above 3250 is large. investors have an obvious wait-and-see mentality with money. Whether the stock index can strengthen again in the future still depends on the boost of policies and the promotion of mainstream hot spots . It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely. It is suggested that investors should keep an eye on the short-term value of blue stocks and continue to underestimate the investment opportunities of the middle line for the time being.
Guosheng securities also believes that after the oversold rebound, the two cities have been poised to consolidate around 3250 points, and the short-term rebound is under great pressure from 3280 to 3300 points. Although the index has a demand to step back, there is limited downward space, and the gem index pays attention to the short-term support near 2650. The market is in a low-level area. Under the expectation that monetary and credit policies will remain moderate in the future and steady growth will continue to increase, whether the market is an incremental capital entry breakthrough or a benign technical adjustment, it is a window for strategic allocation at this stage .
In addition, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that some factors causing market adjustment have been actively resolved at the policy level, the fundamental signal is still weak, the potential inflection point may still need to wait for the effectiveness of the policy to achieve fundamental improvement, market may still reverse in the short term, but the stage similar to the previous sharp decline may have ended, and the subsequent market may gradually enter the bottom grinding stage .
Combined with the adjusted range, valuation and possible digestion of negative factors, we believe that the market opportunity of medium-term dimension is greater than the risk in the future, we will pay attention to the following potential factors: 1) the uncertainty of the external situation and the easing of global inflationary pressure will bring about the marginal easing of "stagflation"; 2) The "steady growth" policy continues to work, especially in real estate and other fields with more concerns. 3) The epidemic situation in China is further clarified; 4) The problem of China's stock concept is relatively clear, etc.
Structurally, the agency further suggested that the current main line of "stable growth" may still have allocation value. In the medium term, with the growth gradually stabilizing and the macro risks gradually dissolving, market may still focus on areas with more sustainable growth, and relevant fields such as high-profile scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing upgrading may be relatively dominant .
In the macro aspect, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the data of the National Bureau of statistics showed that the prices of all kinds of coal rose in mid March. In terms of policy, the Symposium on clean and efficient utilization of coal proposed to give full play to the role of coal in providing comprehensive protection and energy security. From the demand side, according to the data of China coal market network, the current coastal terminal coal inventory continues to decline, and the coal storage of some power plants is at a low level; The strengthening of cold air force also promotes the increase of demand; In addition, the spring overhaul of Daqin line on April 8 will promote the formation of coal procurement demand in advance. On the supply side, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other places maintained normal production, sales and shipment under the epidemic, while the railway capacity was basically at full load in the short term, the structural difference between supply and demand in the coal industry deserves attention .
In terms of operational strategy, for the new main line, Shenyin Wanguo Securities said that provides two clues based on the historical resumption : (1) after the adjustment of the first industry in public offering positions, most of the new main lines will appear in other directions of public offering positions (other directions of new economic events). In this regard, we are focusing on price increases (profitability may usher in upward turning points, Baijiu, condiments), digital economy (computer industry fundamentals have improved power, theme intensive catalysis provides valuation clues). Medium term opportunities for electronics (power semiconductors are still in high prosperity in the first half of the year, and the possibility of a boom inflection point in consumer electronics in the second half of the year) and pharmaceutical segments (covid-19 epidemic prevention has the highest prosperity and is scarce).
In addition, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that with the gradual disclosure of performance by listed companies, can configure valuation on bargain hunting - high-quality stocks with high profit and cost performance . From the perspective of configuration suggestions, main line 1: high boom superposition policies continue to benefit high-end manufacturing sectors, such as military industry, new energy, semiconductor, etc. The industry has high prosperity and smooth logic, and has good long-term growth. It can carry out strategic layout, bargain hunting and pay attention to the rhythm of investment.
main line 2: benefits from the upstream resource product sector of global energy shortage. In 2022, the long-term shortage of supply and demand of resource products is still in progress, with strong profit certainty. Driven by the recovery of the economy, there may be a rebound opportunity.
main line three: defensive segments with strong rebound opportunities, such as Baijiu, medical services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, are suitable for buying on the market.
main line 4: undervalued + financial sector with both attack and defense.
