Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : multiple factors affect the tradable amount of grain! Related targets of planting industry chain are expected to benefit
China still needs to import some grains, such as soybeans, corn and wheat, which are highly dependent on foreign countries and are greatly affected by the world. Ukraine, the United States, Brazil, Argentina and other countries are important suppliers of China’s grain imports. Under the influence of climate change, Ukraine’s grain export is expected to decline significantly by 20-30% under the influence of multiple factors such as climate conflict. 2) US inflation expectations, rising costs and other factors triggered farmers’ reluctance to sell, and US corn and soybean futures prices continued to rise. 3) Drought affected soybean production in Brazil, Argentina and other countries; The drought in the United States is expected to increase; In addition, last year’s autumn flood in China caused late sowing of wheat, which posed a challenge to China’s summer grain production.
We expect that affected by the above factors, grain prices are expected to continue to rise in 2022. The relevant targets of the planting industry chain are expected to benefit: 1) seed sector: the rise in grain prices drives farmers’ planting enthusiasm, and farmers prefer to buy seeds with better quality to ensure output. In 2022, the head seed company is expected to usher in a boom in both volume and price. Superimposed genetically modified corn and soybean are expected to complete commercial sales, and seed enterprises with leading technical reserves and obvious quality advantages are expected to expand their market share. Continue to recommend [ Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ] (leading transgenic technology and the largest expanded area of Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) bio transgenic corn), [ Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ] (the participating company has rich reserves of transgenic technology and outstanding advantages in traditional varieties and channels), [ Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) ] (leading corn seed, which is expected to seize the opportunity of transgenic corn), [ Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) ] (relying on Syngenta group, it is expected to achieve leapfrog development). 2) Agricultural materials sector: Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) (the leader of phosphorus and compound fertilizer and iron phosphate open the growth space). 3) Planting and transportation sector: Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) (mainly engaged in planting rice, wheat and other crops), Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) (mainly engaged in planting rice, corn and other crops), Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) ( Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply chain). 4) Agricultural water saving sector: Dayu Water-Saving Group Co.Ltd(300021) (agricultural water saving faucet company, benefiting from industry opportunities such as high standard farmland construction).
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : 2022 is the best stage to lay out the pig sector in advance, and the probability of pig cycle in 2023 is reversed
The breeding sector continued to pick up, and the seed industry policy was steadily promoted. 1) Pig: we believe that 2022 is the best stage to lay out the pig sector in advance, and the pig cycle will probably reverse in 2023. It is expected that in 2022q2, with the decline of pig price and the rise of feed cost, the cash loss of farmers will be accelerated, and the stock of fertile sows may continue to be removed, which is expected to further catalyze the sector.
At the same time, meat products benefit from the decline in pig prices, and the profit is expected to be further improved in 2022. Recommendations: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO Jiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc; Attention: Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Longda food, etc.
2) yellow feather chicken: it is expected that the breeding profit of yellow chicken will improve in 2022, and the recommended high-quality breeding targets: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) .
3) white feather chicken: the whole industrial chain is sinking towards food deep processing. It is suggested to pay attention to the bottom: Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) .
4) dynamic protection: the value of sector configuration is weaker than that of aquaculture, so it is recommended to pay attention to Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) , China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) , Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
5) seed industry: pay attention to the rise in global grain prices caused by external conflicts and excessive global currencies. In 2022, China’s wheat and corn fundamentals have strong support. The rise in grain prices is conducive to the improvement of planting area and planting capital investment, and the head high-quality seed enterprises or both demand and profit. In addition, the implementation of GM is expected to accelerate. It is expected that the implementation of GM will reshape the pattern of seed industry, and the seed industry will usher in the resonance between cycle and growth. Recommendations: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : the downward space of pig price is very limited at present, and the valuation of the sector, especially the leader, is still at the bottom
The pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of the pig price is very limited. The sector, especially the leading valuation, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety; The fundamentals of Huangji industry have maintained an upward trend after continuous capacity removal. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized capacity, the industry concentration has further improved, and the investment opportunities of Huangji sector have been continuously optimistic; In terms of seed industry, the revision of Seed Law and the promotion of transgenic commercialization will promote the improvement of industry concentration and the expansion of market space, and continue to be optimistic about the growth of leading enterprises; In terms of feed, the recovery of pig production capacity will continue to support the feed sales in the first half of the year, and pay attention to the price of feed raw materials in the second half of the year; In terms of dynamic insurance, it is in the period of industry reform. With the improvement of industry concentration, the advantages of leading enterprises will be gradually clear; Be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet track. Give the industry a rating of “recommended”.
open source Securities: grain prices continue to rise due to multidimensional catalysis, and the planting chain continues
The reversal of pig cycle is imminent, and food prices continue to rise due to multi-dimensional catalysis. In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , which has the leading breeding cost; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , with accelerated recovery of production indicators and reduced costs; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , with excellent performance flexibility; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has the advantages of breeding cost and capital; Relevant beneficial object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended that China’s leading enterprise of animal subunit vaccine Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Grain prices continued to rise due to multi-dimensional catalysis, and the landscape of the planting chain continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of grain price increase Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Highlight the advantages of transgenic technology Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , whose fundamentals will be improved; Relevant beneficial objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
The price of raw materials in the upper reaches rises, the demand in the lower reaches is booming, and the concentration of feed market in the middle reaches continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) : the problem of food security is becoming more and more prominent, further stimulating the improvement of the landscape of the planting industry chain
For pig breeding: since 2022, feed prices have been rising, resulting in further increase in breeding costs and farmers falling into double-sided squeeze. In the short term, pig prices continue to fluctuate weakly, but the central government is about to start the third round of frozen pork collection and storage this year, and the downward space of pig prices is expected to be limited. The cold winter of the industry is conducive to accelerating the de industrialization of pig production capacity, and a new cycle is expected to come faster. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the degree of de industrialization of industry production capacity before the inflection point of the cycle.
For white feather chicken: Farmers’ willingness to make up the fence is low, and the price of chicken seedlings falls. Since the Spring Festival in 2022, pig prices have continued to decline, which is bad for the meat and poultry market. The superposition of epidemic situations has repeatedly led to the reduction of centralized procurement in schools, the price of white feather broiler is weak and volatile, and there is great upward pressure. The downturn on the consumer side and the increase in costs have led to a sharp decline in breeding profits and weak willingness of farmers to make up for hurdles. In the short term, the negative factors in the meat and poultry market are difficult to eliminate for the time being. It is expected that the price of white feather meat and wool chicken will continue to fluctuate weakly.
For the seed industry: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices are rising, and the prosperity of the industry is improving. Catalyzed by the conflict in the peripheral situation, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices rose in an all-round way, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices of soybean meal and wheat reached a 14 year high. The problem of food security became more and more prominent, which further stimulated the improvement of the landscape of the planting industry chain.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : further improvement of the policy system of biological breeding industrialization. It is suggested to pay attention to the seed industry and biological breeding
The bottom of pig price fluctuates, the cost of feed raw materials increases, and the head loss increases. It may accelerate the elimination of production capacity. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , COFCO jiajiakang, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , etc. At the bottom of dynamic insurance valuation, focus on Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) etc. The field efficacy test guidelines for herbicide control of weeds in GM HT maize and soybean fields were launched, the herbicide standards for GM HT crops were refined, and the policy system for biological breeding industrialization was further improved. It is suggested to pay attention to the seed industry and biological breeding sector. Recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , a leader in hybrid maize seed industry with leading advantages in transgenic industrialization and high-quality variety resources and innovation ability Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) . Continue to recommend high growth blue chip stocks Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , etc.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : industry upward cycle! It is expected that high-quality seed enterprises will usher in a performance release period in the next few years
For pig breeding, cost reduction and efficiency increase in 2022 is still the main theme of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to enterprises with “rich reserves of breeding sows, continuous realization of cost improvement and abundant cash flow”.
For white feather broilers, the industrial chain has experienced a loss for one year. The deep loss in the downstream inhibits the enthusiasm to make up the fence. The decline in the price of chicken seedlings affects the profits of the incubator, or forces the breeding chicken farm to take the initiative to reduce the production capacity. We may see the month on month contraction of the supply of chicken seedlings in the third quarter of 2022, and follow-up pay attention to the changes in the stock of grandparents and parents. Recommend enterprises that focus on the layout of the whole industrial chain business and the target of the upstream main chicken seedling sales business.
For yellow feather broiler, even if the industry accelerates the clearing of production capacity at the low point of the cycle, the head enterprises still expand against the trend. It is expected that the market share of the head enterprises will further increase after the gradual withdrawal of free range farmers in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading leaders in continuous capacity expansion and cost control, as well as enterprises that comply with the development trend of frozen fresh sales.
For the dynamic insurance sector, it has fallen to a reasonable range due to the drag of pig price. It is expected that the reversal of pig price in the second half of 2022 will lead to the upward prosperity of the industry, and the sector is expected to usher in valuation repair. It is suggested to lay out at a low level. It is recommended to focus on Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , which has obvious advantages in subunit vaccine research and development, and industry leaders with rich product reserves.
For the seed industry, with the intensive introduction of favorable policies and the improvement of supply and demand fundamentals, the industry ushered in an upward cycle. It is expected that high-quality seed enterprises will usher in the release period of performance in the next few years, the curtain of genetically modified organism breeding will be opened, the corn seed industry will usher in the expectation of strong capacity expansion, and the leading seed enterprises may usher in the stage of high-speed growth. It is recommended to pay attention to the leader Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , as well as other seed enterprises with rich reserves of transgenic technologies and varieties.
East Asia Qianhai Securities: it is suggested to pay attention to the breeding enterprises with significant cost control advantages and stable operation
Pig breeding: the pig price continues to decline, the downstream consumer demand is weak, the superposition of peripheral conflicts increases the breeding cost, and the clearing of production capacity may show an accelerated trend. It is suggested to pay attention to breeding enterprises with significant cost control advantages and stable operation.
Seed industry: enterprises with variety advantages and core biological breeding technology are expected to take advantage of the policy to continuously improve the market share. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with strong R & D strength and obvious advantages in the seed industry.
