Let’s talk about how many days has the Shanghai index been above 3200 since it rebounded from 3023?
Step by step this week, Niu Yanjun was more and more worried.
First of all, the Shanghai stock index has successively received the cross star or similar cross star. Only the physical part of the K-line on March 18 is a little longer, showing a hesitant attitude of dilemma; Secondly, the index is sideways, but the trading volume is getting lower and lower. Obviously, more funds choose to wait and see.
In this case, Niu Yanjun still needs to take an old saying in the stock market that “the market will fall for a long time” to remind everyone to pay attention to risks. The most vivid example recently is the shock platform with 3450 points as the central axis between the end of January and the beginning of March. We can see the subsequent results.
Of course, Niu Yanjun doesn’t mean that it will fall sharply in the future, but just a reminder that the Shanghai index may face a short-term change in the market, and the possibility of running down to cover the gap must be paid attention to. Today’s sudden diving also shows that the attraction below is increasing.
Niu Yanjun noticed that an event involving Dan bin, the top private placement boss, aroused strong concern in the market this morning, and if the market really operates in the direction warned by Niu Yanjun above, Dan bin may still have the opportunity to cover his position.
At about 10 a.m., Dan bin sent a message on his microblog in response to the media report that “Dan bin is suspected to be short, and the net value of hundreds of products is almost zero fluctuation”. Although he didn’t clearly say whether he was short, it was basically “acquiescence”: “after reading this report, I feel that it is written objectively… In fact, every major decision is not easy… We added a rule in our selling principle that ‘we will consider selling out in case of systemic risk…”
As everyone knows, Dan Bin is heavily owned by Baijiu and pharmaceutical stocks. The two stocks are also in the top of the list. It seems that the news of big guys short positions is a bit of a blow to confidence.
However, Niu Yanjun noticed that just as the so-called “some people resign and return to their hometown, some people rush to the examination room at night”, they are also leaders in the industry, but in the face of the same stage of the market, their views may be diametrically opposite.
Just last night, two more big men spoke, namely Dong Chengfei, who had just “gone private” and Liu Gesong, deputy general manager of Guangfa fund.
Dong Chengfei has just officially joined Ruijun assets as a managing partner, At a small channel internal communication activity this time, he said: “after the withdrawal of high-quality enterprises in the market, the valuation has fallen back to a more reasonable range… Therefore, the market need not be too pessimistic this year. The future belongs to the transition period and low return period for a long time. Now it is the stage of choosing future opportunities. If you choose well and wait patiently, you will finally gain something.” At the same time, he also pays more attention to opportunities in the semiconductor field.
Liu Gesong said in a live broadcast: “we should cherish the A-share assets in this position. There are such fluctuations in history, but not everyone can grasp them. At present, what we should think about is what assets have been ‘wrongly killed’.”
Obviously, Dan Bin’s short position clearance runs counter to Dong Chengfei and Liu Gesong’s low position. Who is right and who is wrong has to be verified by the market. But Niu Yanjun thought that Dan bin would be more persuasive to express his views with real gold and silver; The other two are still in the shouting stage, and their specific actions are still unknown.
Then, the next question comes: if you support Dan bin, there’s nothing to say. You’ll be short handed directly; But if you support Dong Chengfei and Liu Gesong, what areas have the opportunity to “choose the future”?
Niu Yanjun thinks it can be considered from the following aspects: first, the rebound from the low point is strong; Second, there is policy support; Third, it is basically at the low cycle of the industry. From these three points of view, agricultural stocks, pork stocks and Niu Yanjun think they should be paid attention to.
Let’s take a look at the trend of the agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery sector index. It is obvious that since the low point on March 16, the highest increase of the index has reached 19%, not only breaking through the high point in early March before the decline of the market, but also approaching the phased high point in mid January. Therefore, this sector is not only resistant to decline, but also has a strong rebound speed and strength, which is obviously cared by funds.
Secondly, this morning, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and the Ministry of finance made clear the key work and package support policies for grain production in 2022. You can click the big picture to see the specific measures and related fields, which is also the policy support of this sector.
Third, pork stocks also deserve attention. As we all know, pork stocks are highly cyclical. At present, pork prices are at a low position, which is the “trough” of the cycle, and may already have good value. For example, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) thinks that the pork production capacity has decreased for eight consecutive months since July last year, the production capacity has maintained a high intensity, the direction of de industrialization has maintained a high stability, and is expected to accelerate under multiple factors such as supply and demand and cost. The pig price is in the bottom area, and the downward space is very small, which is in an environment extremely conducive to the de industrialization of production capacity.
Finally, it’s the weekend after a week of A-share trading. Next week may be a week to determine the short-term direction. Let’s take advantage of this time to do our homework!
