Today (March 25), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to adjust the pattern of shock. The three major A-share indexes rose or fell at the opening. At the beginning of the trading, the stock index fluctuated near yesterday's closing point, and there was a wave of diving near noon. In the afternoon, the index accelerated downward, and the adjustment was strengthened. Finally, the three major indexes closed down.
In this regard, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that some factors that triggered the market adjustment have been actively resolved at the policy level, the fundamental signal is still weak, the potential inflection point may still need to wait for the effectiveness of the policy to achieve fundamental improvement, and the market may still repeat in the short term, but it seems that the stage of sharp decline in the early stage may have ended, and the subsequent market may gradually enter the bottom grinding stage.
At the same time, combined with the adjusted range, valuation and possible digestion of negative factors, the institution believes that the market opportunities in the medium-term dimension outweigh the risks. Focus on the following potential factors in the future: 1) the uncertainty of the external situation and the easing of global inflationary pressure will bring about the marginal easing of "stagflation"; 2) The "steady growth" policy continues to work, especially in real estate and other fields with more concerns. 3) The epidemic situation in China is further clarified; 4) The problem of China's stock concept is relatively clear, etc.
sector:
I. agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that the pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom, and the current downward space of the pig price is very limited. The sector, especially the leading valuation, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety; The fundamentals of Huangji industry have maintained an upward trend after continuous capacity removal. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized capacity, the industry concentration has further improved, and the investment opportunities of Huangji sector have been continuously optimistic; In terms of seed industry, the revision of Seed Law and the promotion of transgenic commercialization will promote the improvement of industry concentration and the expansion of market space, and continue to be optimistic about the growth of leading enterprises; In terms of feed, the recovery of pig production capacity will continue to support the feed sales in the first half of the year, and pay attention to the price of feed raw materials in the second half of the year; In terms of dynamic insurance, it is in the period of industry reform. With the improvement of industry concentration, the advantages of leading enterprises will be gradually clear; Be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet track.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that 2022 is the best stage to lay out the pig sector in advance, and the pig cycle will probably reverse the market in 2023. It is expected that in 2022q2, with the decline of pig price and the rise of feed cost, the cash loss of farmers will be accelerated, and the stock of fertile sows may continue to be removed, which is expected to further catalyze the sector. At the same time, meat products benefit from the decline in pig prices, and the profit is expected to be further improved in 2022. Recommendations: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO Jiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc; Attention: Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Longda food, etc.
In addition, pay attention to the rise in global food prices caused by peripheral conflicts and excessive global currencies. In 2022, China's wheat and corn fundamentals have strong support. The rise in food prices is conducive to the improvement of planting area and planting capital investment, and the head high-quality seed enterprises or both demand and profit. In addition, the implementation of GM is expected to accelerate. It is expected that the implementation of GM will reshape the pattern of seed industry, and the seed industry will usher in the resonance between cycle and growth. Recommendations: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
II. Real estate development
Capital Securities said that the high-level statement released positive signals and the policy window period came. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of "stable growth", the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of "development +".
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China's national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
The agency further analyzed and maintained the "optimistic" rating of the real estate sector. Recommendations: A shares: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; H shares: China Resources Land, China overseas development, Longhu group, Xuhui holdings, country garden; And maintain the "optimistic" rating of the property management sector, and recommend: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane, poly property, CNOOC property, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , Greentown service, Baolong business and xinchengyue service.
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