In February this year, Haval H6, the champion of SUV sales of fuel vehicle, was overtaken by the hybrid model Byd Company Limited(002594) song plus dm-i
On the other hand, Byd Company Limited(002594) won in the secondary market. From October 2021 to the low point in mid March, based on the closing price, Byd Company Limited(002594) decreased by 27.7%, and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) fell from the high point of 69.8 yuan to 26.57 yuan in the same period, with the largest decline of nearly 62%.
Behind the huge difference in share prices is that the progress of new energy transformation of the two companies is different, and the market valuation of automobile enterprises with higher sales of electric and hybrid models will also be higher.
" Byd Company Limited(002594) fuel vehicles do not have an advantage, and the transformation to new energy is more complete. Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) previously, there was HUFFER, the champion of SUV sales, and there was a hot tank brand in recent two years, so its transformation power may be weaker." A person in the auto industry in Beijing commented.
However, in the eyes of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) people, this is not the case, "the company has previously released the sales target for 2025, in which the sales of new energy vehicles account for 80%. In the follow-up, with more upgraded models and newly listed models equipped with hybrid or pure electric power system, the sales proportion of new energy vehicles is expected to increase greatly."
In March 22nd, the Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) official account was certified as " Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) Xushui Haff sales company". From March 21st to April 3rd, hav H6 HEV, H6 PHEV and tank 300 HEV 6 new energy vehicles landed at Bangkok International Auto Show.
according to the sales target put forward by the above Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) people, the company needs to complete the sales of 3.2 million new energy vehicles by 2025. In other words, in other words, this year and next will be an important node in the company's new energy transformation. The more it is delayed to the end, the greater the pressure to achieve the goal.
behind the decline in share price: Sales of new energy vehicles account for more than 10%
"At the end of the lunar new year in 2021, your company's share price is getting lower and lower. Where is Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) in China's domestic car line? No matter traditional cars or new energy vehicles, they can't go like this..." Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) depressed share price trend makes some investors give the above message on the interactive platform.
In terms of historical trend, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) was in the leading position in the process of stock price rise in the early stage. From the beginning of 2021 to October 26 of the same year, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) increased by 78%, and Byd Company Limited(002594) increased by 64% in the same period.
As a result, more rises and more falls. Since October 26 last year, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) share prices have peaked simultaneously, and the A-share vehicle sector has fallen systematically. By March 16 this year, the average decline of 9 vehicle enterprises has reached 31.43%.
Among them, Byd Company Limited(002594) decreased less than the average of the above industries, while Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) decreased by 57.61% in the same period.
It should be pointed out that the car sales of the two companies in the first two months were more than 180000, and the difference in financial data such as income and profit is not too much. Why is there such an obvious difference?
The key may be that the different progress of new energy transformation makes the secondary market have different valuation standards for it.
Let's start with Byd Company Limited(002594) . In the first two months of this year, the company was in a rapid and large-scale stage, ranking high in the sales list of new energy vehicles. The company monopolized 6 seats for the top 10 new energy vehicles (including pure electric and hybrid).
According to the announcement data, from January to February, Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy vehicles sold 181500 units, accounting for 97.3% of the company's automobile sales.
Look at Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . From January to February, the company sold 20300 new energy vehicles, accounting for 11.12%, and the fuel vehicle Haval brand of "walking volume" still supports the company's market.
At present, the company's new energy models are mainly concentrated in the Euler brand and some hybrid models of the wey brand, and the sales of the latter's new energy models are not large-scale.
Taking February this year as an example, the sales data of chedi new energy vehicles show that the sales volume of Euler good cat is 3848, and the sales volume of macchido dht-phev under wey brand is 304.
In the same period, Byd Company Limited(002594) song plus and Qin plus sold 19055 and 14242 models equipped with DM-I hybrid system respectively.
What is this concept? You know, a single month's sales volume of more than 10000 is a good achievement, which is equivalent to Byd Company Limited(002594) the hybrid model has achieved a very obvious advantage in the competition with mainstream fuel vehicles.
It can be seen that there is a very obvious gap between the two companies in the transformation of new energy.
"there used to be Haval H6, but now there are 300 tanks. It's hard to find a car. Great Wall has a good life in the field of fuel vehicles, especially SUVs and hardline cross-country." The aforementioned people in Beijing automobile industry believe that although the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased rapidly in the past two years, the market scale is still far lower than that of fuel vehicles, and the driving force of the Great Wall's transformation to new energy may not be large
According to the feedback of a wey 4S store in Chengdu, "now the delivery cycle of tank 300 off-road version takes 5 months, and the delivery cycle of urban version is about 7 months."
Many consumers' orders are arranged to the number after 200000, and it is not easy to deliver the car in the short term.
"The number of deliveries per month is about 10000, but the number of new orders has also reached 10000. There is little difference between the number of production and new orders." The above Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) person said.
However, in his opinion, there is no situation that fuel vehicles sell too well and lack the power of new energy transformation. "The route of adhering to the transformation to new energy has not changed."
brand up? Where does the increment of 3.2 million new energy vehicles come from
According to the 2025 strategic plan of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , the global annual sales volume will be 4 million, the operating revenue will exceed 600 billion yuan, and more than 50 new energy vehicles will be launched, making the proportion of new energy vehicles reach 80%.
"If Chinese automobile brands want to achieve real transcendence, only in these three to five years can they quickly enlarge their advantages and lead the new track of new energy and intelligence.
Moreover, there is only one chance for Chinese auto brands. " Wei Jianjun, chairman of the company, also pointed out at the above strategic press conference.
This move was once considered that the company was ready to put all its eggs in the field of new energy vehicles and intelligent vehicles.
The company needs to make more efforts to achieve the above-mentioned target of 3.2 million new energy vehicles.
In terms of short-term development trend, it is at least facing the problems of rising prices of raw materials and more fierce market competition.
Take the Euler brand, the main carrier of the company's new energy vehicles at this stage, as an example. On February 23 this year, Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, announced that Euler's black and white cat models stopped receiving orders. "Take the black cat as an example. After the sharp rise in raw material prices in 2022, the single black cat lost more than 10000 yuan."
According to the field visit of 21st Century Capital Research Institute, at present, there are only two models on sale in Euler 4S store: good cat and good cat GT, of which the delivery of Euler good cat takes 1.5 to 2 months, and there are cars in stock in good cat GT model store, which can be picked up at any time.
Next, the Euler ballet cat model planned to be listed is expected to cost tens of thousands of yuan more.
It is not difficult to see that from tank brand to Euler brand, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) is tilting its limited production capacity and materials to models with higher price and added value .
In this regard, the above Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) people also recognized the above judgment, "after March, the company's production capacity is expected to gradually recover."
"At present, there is no discount. The price will be increased immediately. The total cost of charging pile and installation is 3000 yuan." According to a person from an Euler 4S store in the south of Chengdu.
The price adjustment he mentioned refers to that since 0:00 on March 23, the price of all good cats and good cats GT models has been increased by 6 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan after subsidies, and the adjusted price range of good cats has reached between 127900157900 yuan.
The price increase is basically the same as that of Byd Company Limited(002594) dolphin, which is considered as its competitive model. In contrast, the latter has a lower price range and better sales data.
In fact, Euler brand is highly expected by Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) company. Tank brands focus on the male and hardline cross-country market, while Euler good cat, ballet cat, lightning cat and other models planned to be listed mainly focus on the female consumer market.
However, whether the above models can replicate the success of tank 300, especially under the upward rhythm of brand tone, the acceptance still needs to be tested by the market.
If successful, ballet cat and other models can sell well, and the overall new energy transformation speed of the company will be accelerated, and vice versa.
"in addition to the new models, the company's hybrid and pure electric systems will gradually sink." The above Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) person pointed out
this may also be a direct and effective method. For example, the Haval H6 brand, the sales pillar, is replaced with a hybrid system by the way of "replacing oil with electricity"
The information from the above Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) company also seems to show that the company has this plan and preparation.
At the Bangkok auto show, in addition to the Haval H6 HEV listed at the end of June last year, it also includes the plug-in hybrid version of H6 PHEV and the tank 300 HEV concept car.
With the replacement and listing of the old models after the electrification transformation, it is expected that the proportion of the overall sales of new energy vehicles of the Great Wall will increase significantly.
tank 500, hybrid vehicle sinking, or contributing new increment
Although the stock price fell significantly, the Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) fundamentals did not change.
Reviewing the historical data, it can be seen that from 2016 to 2020, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) revenue has always hovered around 100 billion yuan, and the change of profit side is also very stable. The net profit in 2016 was 10.5 billion yuan, and has been fluctuating at 5 billion yuan for the next four years.
Where did the money go? Indeed, a lot of money has been invested in R & D.
From 2018 to 2020, the change of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) revenue side was limited, but the R & D expenses increased from 1.74 billion yuan to 3.07 billion yuan respectively, which was lower than Byd Company Limited(002594) , and the R & D investment of the latter increased from 4.99 billion yuan to 7.47 billion yuan in the same period.
Finally, the two companies have formed representative DHT and DM-I hybrid technologies respectively.
In addition, the tank 500 model that has just been officially launched is called "all series self-developed big six cylinders", and its 3.0T V6 engine and 9at gearbox are also self-developed by Great Wall company.
"Several leaders of several domestic car enterprises are still more emotional. For example, they name their brand after referring to Mercedes Benz. After catching up and Surpassing in recent years, in fact, the hybrid technology of Chinese car enterprises has surpassed that of Japanese car enterprises to some extent." The aforementioned people in Beijing automobile industry commented that.
According to him, the hybrid technology tries to make the vehicle run in the highest efficiency range and make the fuel consumption as close to the lower limit of energy consumption as possible. For example, the fuel vehicle has the highest efficiency under high-speed working conditions. The hybrid technology mainly solves the efficiency problem under medium and low-speed working conditions. Therefore, plug-in hybrid is a good scheme. The battery size is reasonable, and the power consumption at low speed and oil consumption at high speed.
In his opinion, pure electricity is only one of the choices for the future development of new energy vehicles, and the importance of hybrid technology can not be ignored. Of course, the premise is to balance various factors such as cost, performance, economy and driving experience.
Now, with the hot sale of Byd Company Limited(002594) dm-i model, the company's investment in the early stage has actually been transformed into the growth of sales.
In contrast to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , the latte DHT model with good sales situation sold only more than 2000 in February this year, and the macchido DHT is only in double digits, and the hybrid model still has a lot of room for improvement.
In contrast, the tank 500 model may bring more revenue and profit increment to the company.
At the same time, according to comprehensive public reports and other data estimates, the number of tank 500, plus the pre-sale in the early stage and the orders after the recent official listing, is also close to 50000. In this regard, the Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) person confirmed the order data of the above tank 500 to the 21st Century Capital Research Institute on the 22nd
in terms of the overall business trend of the company, thanks to the improvement of the prosperity of the whole industry in 2021, the company has also broken away from the above "horizontal range" of 100 billion revenue and 5 billion profit
performance express data show that in 2021, the company achieved operating revenue of 136.3 billion yuan and net profit of 6.782 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.95% and 26.47% respectively
The base is too large, coupled with the lack of new energy models, it is not easy to achieve the above growth rate.
In terms of the business trend in 2022, with the continuous popularity of tank brands and the sinking of hybrid and pure electric vehicles, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) is still expected to achieve growth.
Up to now, the consistent profit forecast result of wind seller is that the revenue and net profit of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 2022 will reach 194.3 billion yuan and 11.3 billion yuan respectively.
Of course, the premise is to solve the problems of capacity bottleneck and raw material shortage.
Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) in explaining the decline in production and sales data in February, he pointed out that "it is mainly due to the insufficient supply of body electronic stability system (" ESP ") produced by Bosch auto parts (Suzhou) Co., Ltd."
