The shrinking of mobile phone sales is being transmitted to the upstream. After the "surge" of prices last year, the prices of mobile phone supply chain devices such as camera and screen display are falling rapidly.
"Take the camera as an example, the price decline in the first quarter of this year was about 5% to 10% compared with the fourth quarter of last year." On March 24, Chen Jun, deputy general manager and chief analyst of Qunzhi consulting, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that since the second half of last year, due to multiple factors such as cost pressure, the product planning of mobile phone manufacturers has changed, and they no longer blindly pursue the number of cameras.
According to the prediction of Qunzhi research, the overall price of camera modules still showed a downward trend in the second quarter. Among low pixel products, 2m pixels decreased by about 5.2% month on month, and 8m pixel modules decreased by about 1.6%. Among high pixel products, considering the sharp decline of overall demand and supply, 64M pixel products showed a price decline of about 6.7%.
weak terminal demand transmitted to upstream
China's mobile phone market is still in a downward channel.
According to the latest analysis report on the operation of China's mobile phone market in February 2022 released by the China Academy of communications and communications, the shipments of mobile phones in the Chinese market in that month were 14.864 million, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%, including 11.374 million 5g mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 24.5%, accounting for 76.5% of the mobile phone shipments in the same period.
Mobile phone manufacturers also tend to be cautious about the release rhythm of new phones. In February, 22 new models of smart phones were launched, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%. From January to February 2022, 50 new models of smart phones were listed, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%.
"The sluggish demand side and the inventory pressure after a large increase in orders last year are the reasons that affect the purchasing sentiment of mobile phone manufacturers." The reporter said that the prices of a few mobile phone devices fell in different quarters of this year, except for a few mobile phone devices.
According to the data tracking of the organization's parts manufacturers, the revenue performance of the mobile phone optical industry chain company was relatively weak in February, and the sales volume of Shunyu optical technology, Qiuti technology and daliguang mobile phone parts decreased to varying degrees.
Taking the optical leader Shunyu optical technology (02382. HK) as an example, according to the financial report released on March 22, the company shipped 49.716 million mobile camera modules in February, a month on month decrease of 0.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.6%; Mobile phone lens shipments reached 109 million, down 17.1% month on month and 15.9% year-on-year. Due to the decline in the volume and price of mobile phone lenses and the decline in the average sales unit price of mobile phone camera modules, the revenue of Shunyu optical technology decreased by about 1.3% in 2021, which is the first negative growth of the company's revenue in recent ten years.
Anjie Securities believes that due to the weak macro environment, the reduction of regulations and distribution of mobile phone manufacturers and the weak demand for high-end models, the pressure on the industry and the company of Shunyu optical technology was more obvious in the second half of 2021. The shipment of mobile phone lens and camera module of 2h21a company decreased by 18.3% and 3.6% respectively year-on-year. It is estimated that the unit price of mobile phone lens and camera module decreased in double digits and high units respectively year-on-year, further weakening the annual profit performance of mobile phone optical products.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) said that CS electronics fell 2.0% in the past month as of February 25, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5% in the same period. Overall, the total market value of the mobile phone industry chain fell by 9.5%, and the valuation fell by 9.6% to 28.4x (calculated by P / E TTM). At present, it is about 50% quantile since 2017 (calculated by P / E TTM).
the shortage of mobile phone main chip has been alleviated
Chip has always been the most serious area of "shortage" of mobile phone parts. Due to the strategic adjustment of domestic mobile phones, high-end chips have been extremely out of stock since the beginning of last year, but this situation has eased.
The reporter noted that since the second half of last year, Qualcomm and MediaTek, the main suppliers of mobile phone chips, are accelerating the supply of high-end chips in order to obtain a larger market.
Chen Junhong, deputy general manager of MediaTek's wireless communication division, once told reporters that the sales volume of consumer groups with more than 3000 yuan has increased one after another, and the whole high-end market is a battleground for strategists. The competition between MediaTek and "big brother" Qualcomm has been quite fierce in terms of process and chip iteration speed.
"This year, the shortage of mobile phone chips has eased, and the prices of some chips have been reduced, but it remains to be seen whether the overall cost of mobile phones has decreased." Xu Qi, vice president of realme and President of China, told reporters that since the decline of the mobile phone market in the first quarter was greater than expected, it is expected that the competition in the mobile phone market will further intensify in the next year, and the overall supply chain challenge is still great.
But he also stressed that the company's annual growth target has not been adjusted. "We still have expectations for the second quarter and the third quarter, and the sales volume will be further upward from the fourth quarter."
Chen Jun told reporters that the price of mobile phone devices is expected to stop falling in the third and fourth quarters. "On the one hand, the handling of inventory is coming to an end, and on the other hand, pulling goods in the peak season of the year is expected to bring a rebound in demand."
In addition, the technical trend of high-end mobile phones is also driving the demand for some components to rebound.
Counterpoint analysts believe that high-end smart phones must do a good job in the three fundamentals of display, photography and games. "The screen of high-end smart phones needs to support high refresh rate, high resolution and sharp color accuracy. Ltpo screen has become a necessary product of high-end smart phones to support variable refresh rate. In the era of computational photography, OEMs are improving the specifications of ANC auxiliary cameras, such as realme GT2 pro with two main camera levels of 50mp rear camera. In addition, mobile games now consume more computing resources than before to meet the needs of tourists The demand of drama players for transparent picture quality and smooth game experience. "
Chen Jun believes that game phones will also drive the increase in the demand for mobile phone main chips and high refresh rate screens.
According to qunxi consulting data, about 53 million ltpo smartphones were shipped worldwide in 2021. It is estimated that about 140 million ltpo smartphones will be shipped worldwide in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 156%. From 2022 to 2023, Chinese mainland panel makers, BOE, Visionox Technology Inc(002387) , Huaxing photoelectric, Tianma and so on, will launch LTPO products one after another.
However, the development of high-end market still has a long way to go for domestic mobile phone manufacturers.
"The threshold of high-end brands is there. Nokia surpasses motorcycles by relying on Symbian smartphones, apple surpasses Nokia by relying on touch-screen smartphones, and Huawei's high-end position in China depends on self-developed chips and later self-developed systems." Hou Lin, senior analyst of GfK China mobile phone category, told reporters that if we just follow the old path of predecessors and improve the photography level, it is basically difficult to achieve the breakthrough of high-end brands.
