Viewpoint: according to the PMI data for four consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. After the news of Zte Corporation(000063) “winning the lawsuit” yesterday, the United States announced to re exempt 352 tariffs on Chinese imports. With the gradual recovery of macro sentiment, it also gave a positive boost to the stimulation of relevant sectors and the repair of valuation. After the continuous oversold rebound, the market also has the demand for technical correction, but the correction is still a good time for low absorption and strategic allocation.
Yesterday’s Zte Corporation(000063) event is still fresh in your memory, because the suspension was announced in the morning and the resumption of trading was ushered in in the afternoon. After the resumption of trading, A-Shares directly raised the limit, and Hong Kong shares also rose by 60%. The incident was that the judge of the United States ruled that Zte Corporation(000063) compliance monitoring period ended, and Zte Corporation(000063) issued an announcement at noon that day, disclosing that the U.S. Court made a judgment confirming the end of the term of office of the supervisor stationed in the company without any punishment The Zte Corporation(000063) event is not only a positive impact on Zte Corporation(000063) but also a certain boost to the sector China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) research report said that Zte Corporation(000063) winning the lawsuit is beneficial to the recovery of the valuation of the communication industry, and the layout on the left side is recommended at the bottom of the sector. From 2020 to 2021, the valuation of the communication sector continued to decline, and ZTE’s victory is expected to help the emotional recovery of the sector.
Just after the Zte Corporation(000063) incident, on the 23rd local time, the office of the U.S. trade representative issued a statement announcing the re exemption of tariffs on 352 goods imported from China. The new provisions will apply to goods imported from China from October 12, 2021 to December 31, 2022. For this event, we think it is also a double boost of emotion and substance. Tariff exemption is beneficial to relevant enterprises and industries, and it is also significant to alleviate the valuation pressure on companies and industries. At the same time, the significance of boosting sentiment is also extraordinary. Taking the trade friction in 2018 as an example, the stock market suffered serious setbacks and the mood was depressed at that time. Therefore, the emotional boost of this tariff exemption is also self-evident.
Therefore, whether Zte Corporation(000063) wins or tariff exemption, the impact on the market at the macro level is positive. On the basis of the recent market oversold rebound, it also has a positive impact on the continued good development of the market.
Back in the market, today’s intraday ushered in a long lost technical adjustment, which is what we have repeatedly reminded since the second half of last week. There is still a demand for pullback under the oversold rebound of the market, and the pullback here has been predicted since the gem and Shenzhen Composite Index no longer hit a rebound high in the first half of the week. However, we have also communicated with you that the pullback here is more a good time for low absorption and strategic allocation than a new decline. In the current market as a whole, the valuation has been at a historically low level, and the impact of overseas sentiment is weakening. With the recovery of social finance growth and the stabilization of the economy, under the support of policy and the opening of monetary easing cycle, the bottoming of market shock is coming to an end.
Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the expected technical adjustment here. Instead, we should consider new configuration on bargain hunting. In terms of specific opportunities, the investment opportunities of new and old infrastructure under steady growth deserve attention, and the overall repair market of new energy, semiconductors and other leading enterprises with high prosperity is also worth looking forward to when the first quarterly report is coming.
