Household industry: the expectation of stable growth of short-term real estate drives the improvement of valuation; In the long run, the leading retail power will be improved and the market will be integrated
Short term: marginal improvement in the direction of real estate policy, driving the repair of valuation beta in the post real estate cycle
Long term: the demand for secondary renewal of stock is stimulated, the long-term capacity of the industry is stable and can be expected, the new flow of the household industry and the innovation of new business model still need attention, and the industry will enter a differentiation period; Pay attention to the building and construction of long-term retail capacity of enterprises, and pay attention to the pattern optimization of subdivided tracks: high-quality enterprises expand their share with comprehensive strength, improve channel efficiency, cross the low business cycle, and steadily expand their profitability and roe
Soft track, alpha varieties with improved concentration: [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] [Minhua holding] [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] [ Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) ]
Customize the leader [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], who is optimistic about continuous channel reform and innovation and upgrading to platform enterprises; The retail capacity is improved, and the whole family customized [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ]; [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] with much adjustment due to the expected valuation of the real estate in the early stage
The rise of raw materials exceeded expectations, and the background of inflation concerns:
1) paper industry: the price of wood pulp continues to rise due to the impact of the supply side, which promotes the price rise of pulp and paper varieties, and selects a good track and a good leader
It is preferred to select the leader of subdivided high-quality track with good supply and demand and competition pattern, which can continuously transmit the cost pressure, such as [ Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) ]
Paper mills with strong industrial chain integration and sufficient self-produced wood pulp capacity can smooth the business cycle fluctuation of multiple paper types, such as [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]
2) white horse consumption with pricing power and anti inflation:
[ Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) ] relying on the optimization of channel structure and the upgrading of product structure, the company has gradually hedged the impact of the double reduction policy, and fully digested the early valuation level
New type of tobacco: legal status recognition, supporting management rules are gradually introduced, and HNB track is the mainstream of China Tobacco Development in the future
Promising new tobacco supporting suppliers of China Tobacco: [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ]
Packaging industry: optimize the competition pattern of sub industries and wait for the relief of bulk pressure
Paper packaging: [ Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ]: revenue in multiple categories and tracks expanded beyond expectations
Metal packaging: [ Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) ], [ Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co.Ltd(601968) ], [COFCO packaging]
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated, affecting downstream consumer demand; Profit pressure from rising raw materials
