The production process of electrical steel is long, the technical process is complex, and the price of high-end products has increased significantly. The magnetic induction strength and core loss of electrical steel are important division standards between high-end products and low-end products. The whole production process of electrical steel, from molten iron to ironmaking, steelmaking, hot rolling, cold rolling and other processes, has a great impact on magnetic induction and iron loss. Therefore, technical public relations and difficult breakthrough are required in all links. In recent years, the price of electrical steel has increased significantly, but there is a certain price difference between different products due to different production difficulties and market demand. Among them, oriented electrical steel is 11229 yuan higher than non oriented electrical steel, high grade non oriented electrical steel is 5600 yuan higher than medium and low grade non oriented electrical steel, and high magnetic induction oriented electrical steel is 7400 yuan higher than general oriented electrical steel.
The upgrading of energy efficiency in the downstream market brings opportunities for the development of high-grade non oriented electrical steel. The new implementation of energy efficiency limit and energy efficiency grade of room air conditioner (2020) drives the demand for electrical steel with thin specification, low iron loss and high magnetic induction. The energy efficiency limit and energy efficiency grade of motor (2021) further increases the consumption of high-grade non oriented electrical steel. The new energy efficiency standard has brought changes to the field of small and medium-sized motors. Ye2 series motors will be phased out, and the output of ye3 and ye4 series motors will be further expanded. IE5 super class I motors have been approved and developed, which puts forward new requirements for thinning, reducing loss and improving magnetic induction of electrical steel. The output of new energy vehicles is growing rapidly. The non oriented electrical steel with thin specification, high magnetic conductivity, low loss and high strength will become the core material for the drive motor of new energy vehicles to achieve higher performance. The application of high-frequency and high-frequency magnetic steel will significantly increase the demand of aerospace industry in the field of high-frequency and smart steel.
Transformer industry is the main downstream market of oriented electrical steel. With the development of China's economy and the acceleration of industrialization, power consumption continues to increase, some new power demand continues to give birth, and the proportion of electric energy in the energy consumption structure gradually increases. The increase of power consumption brings about the increase of transformer demand. The no-load loss and load loss of transformer are related to the core loss, especially the no-load loss is mainly caused by the core loss. The limited value and energy efficiency grade of power transformer (2021) will increase the demand for high magnetic induction and low iron loss oriented electrical steel.
In the future, the electrical steel market will continue to expand, and the proportion of high-performance electrical steel will continue to increase. According to the current demand of non oriented electrical steel and oriented electrical steel, the proportion of downstream market demand and the growth of downstream market in the future, we expect that the total demand of non oriented electrical steel will continue to increase at a growth rate of about 5%, of which the average annual growth rate of high-grade non oriented electrical steel is about 10.61%; The total demand for oriented electrical steel continues to increase in accordance with the annual increment of 200000 tons, of which the average annual growth rate of the demand for high magnetic induction oriented electrical steel is 12.06%. The demand for high-performance electrical steel continues to increase, and the unit value of electrical steel used in downstream products is expected to further increase.
Investment suggestion: the production and development of China's electrical steel has gone through four periods: introduction, absorption, rapid development and technological upgrading. In the future, with the energy efficiency upgrading in the downstream market and the trend of low-carbon energy conservation and environmental protection, the proportion and demand of high-performance electrical steel will continue to increase. It is estimated that in 2025, China's demand for non oriented electrical steel will reach 12.16 million tons, and the demand for high-grade non oriented electrical steel will reach 6.09 million tons, accounting for 50% from 35%, with an average annual growth rate of 12.41%; The demand for oriented electrical steel will reach 2.37 million tons, and the output of high magnetic induction oriented electrical steel will reach 1.42 million tons, accounting for 60% from 57%, with an average annual growth rate of 12.06%; The average annual growth rate of the total demand for electrical steel is 5.55%. Based on the above conclusions, it is suggested to pay attention to Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , which have competitive advantages in the field of electrical steel.
Risk warning: the demand growth is less than expected, the impact of technology update iteration, and changes in policies and standards
