The top-level plan for hydrogen energy was issued, and a new chapter was written for traditional energy
On March 23, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035) (hereinafter referred to as the plan), which is one of the “n” of the “1 + n” policy system of carbon peak and carbon neutralization.
The plan defines the positioning of hydrogen energy: (1) hydrogen energy is an important part of the future national energy system: hydrogen has energy properties and is a secondary energy with high calorific value, high conversion rate, clean and low carbon and diversified sources; (2) Hydrogen energy is an important carrier for energy terminals to achieve green and low-carbon development: hydrogen energy has low-carbon properties, and its wide application can effectively reduce carbon emissions; (3) The strategic focus of the emerging hydrogen energy industry. At the same time, the plan points out the basic principles for the development of hydrogen energy industry: (1) adhere to innovation leadership: due to the long hydrogen energy industry chain and technical barriers in many links, compared with the world’s leading level, China has great room for improvement in key basic materials, core parts, safety mechanism involving hydrogen and relevant talent reserves; (2) Adhere to green and low carbon: focus on developing hydrogen production from renewable energy and strictly control hydrogen production from fossil energy; (3) Adhere to safety first: improve the safety management level of the whole process of hydrogen energy production, storage, transportation and use; (4) Adhere to stability, prudence and order: comprehensively consider the factors such as hydrogen energy supply capacity, economy and market space, scientifically optimize the industrial layout and promote the standardized development of the industry. The hydrogen energy industry chain involves a wide range of links, including upstream hydrogen production, midstream hydrogen storage and transportation and downstream hydrogen consumption. It has gradually penetrated into many fields such as industry, transportation, construction and power generation. At present, China’s hydrogen energy is still in the initial stage of rapid development. With the strong support of policies, the hydrogen energy industry has broad development prospects. With the continuous improvement of the hydrogen energy policy system, enterprises that have made layout or planning in the hydrogen energy industry will be the biggest beneficiaries. Beneficiary objects: planning and promoting Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , green electricity and green hydrogen; Yankuang energy is planned to rely on coal chemical industry to distribute industrial by-hydrogen; Satellite chemistry, Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , industrial parahydrogen based on propane dehydrogenation route; China Xuyang group, which relies on the coking industrial chain to layout industrial by-hydrogen; Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , laying out the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy.
Hydrogen production routes are diverse. In the short and medium term, industrial by-product hydrogen will be the main source, and green hydrogen is the ultimate goal. The plan points out the development goal of hydrogen energy sources: “during the 14th Five Year Plan period, a hydrogen energy supply system focusing on the nearby utilization of industrial by-product hydrogen and renewable energy hydrogen production will be preliminarily established, the hydrogen production capacity of renewable energy will reach 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year, and the carbon dioxide emission reduction will be 1-2 million tons / year. From the perspective of hydrogen production routes, coal based hydrogen production is currently the most important source of hydrogen production in China, accounting for more than 60%. With low cost, abundant raw materials and mature technology, coal hydrogen production is suitable for large-scale application. However, due to its high carbon emission, there is a “grey hydrogen problem” in coal to hydrogen production. The prospect of hydrogen energy development in the future largely depends on the maturity and cost reduction of CCUs technology. The industrial by-product hydrogen has great development potential. The related chemical industry has scale advantages in China and has certain economy. It is expected to become a breakthrough in the hydrogen production route in the medium and short term. Hydrogen production by electrolyzing water with clean energy is the most ideal route for hydrogen production, but the obstacles to large-scale application have not been removed due to large power consumption and high cost. With the rapid development of clean energy, hydrogen production from electrolytic water may usher in the dawn under the trend of clean energy parity. In the long run, the large-scale application of green hydrogen is the ultimate goal. With the increase of investment in clean energy projects and technologies driven by carbon neutralization, the economy and scale of low hydrocarbons are also expected to make a breakthrough.
The demand for hydrogen is broad, and the prospect of fuel cells is great. The plan for the transformation of traditional industries is in line with the trend. The development goal of the application end is clear: “during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the number of fuel cell vehicles will reach 50000, and a number of hydrogen refueling stations will be deployed and constructed. By 2035, a hydrogen energy industry system will be formed to build a diversified hydrogen energy application ecology covering transportation, energy storage, industry and other fields. There are various ways of downstream utilization of hydrogen energy, mainly including transportation, metallurgy, chemical industry and other industrial fields. Among them, the transportation field is an important breakthrough in hydrogen energy consumption, and the development prospect of fuel cell vehicles is great. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, China’s hydrogen demand will be close to 130 million tons by 2060, of which 40.51 million tons will be used in transportation, accounting for about 32%. At present, the construction of hydrogen refueling stations in China has entered a period of rapid development, the localization rate of fuel cell technology continues to improve, and the cost of fuel cell system continues to decline. With the large-scale effect in the future, there is more room for the final application of fuel cell vehicles to reduce costs, which is expected to promote the wide promotion of fuel cell commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles. In the industrial field, the application of hydrogen energy will help traditional industries to carry out low-carbon transformation. Among them, hydrogen energy steelmaking is expected to contribute to the increase of hydrogen energy consumption in the long term.
Risk warning: the decline of hydrogen energy cost is less than expected; The downstream demand growth of hydrogen energy is less than expected; It is difficult to break through the bottleneck of key technologies in the industrial chain; Disorderly industrial competition and overcapacity risk
