The “14th five year plan” for modern energy system was released, which defined the development roadmap of China’s energy industry under the general direction of the “double carbon” goal, which is expected to accelerate the increase of renewable energy and ensure that there is no worry about the medium-term space for new energy power generation; Maintain the rating that the industry is stronger than the market.
The plan defines the goal of low-carbon transformation of energy during the 14th Five Year Plan Period: on March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau issued the plan for modern energy system during the 14th five year plan. The document proposes that by 2025, the proportion of China’s non fossil energy consumption will increase to about 20%, the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39%, the level of electrification will continue to improve, and the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will reach about 30%. Looking forward to the medium and long term, by 2030, China’s non fossil energy consumption will account for 25%; By 2035, the modern energy system will be basically completed, and renewable energy power generation will become the main power supply.
Pay equal attention to distribution and large base: in order to achieve the goal of non fossil energy in 2025, the plan proposes to give priority to local and nearby development and utilization, and speed up the construction of distributed wind power and distributed photovoltaic in the load center and surrounding areas; Accelerate the construction of large scenic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, and actively promote the construction of multi energy complementary clean energy bases in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, Xinjiang and northern Hebei; Carry out hydrogen production demonstration of wind power and photovoltaic power generation; Encourage the construction of offshore wind power bases. We believe that the above measures ensure that there is no worry about the medium-term space for new energy power generation, and the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation is expected to accelerate.
The new power system and energy storage are important supports: the plan points out to promote the evolution of the power system to adapt to large-scale and high proportion of new energy, innovate the power grid structure and operation mode, and accelerate the large-scale application of new energy storage technology. Vigorously promote the development of power side energy storage, optimize the layout of grid side energy storage, and actively support the diversified development of user side energy storage. Combined with the gradual improvement of TOU price mechanism in the early stage, we believe that the economy of energy storage will be improved and the market space is expected to expand.
The price center of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to move up, and the demand growth rate may exceed expectations: since the start of the Spring Festival, the demand for photovoltaic terminals has improved, and the recent component price has remained at 1.8-1.9 yuan / W, showing good demand toughness. According to the news of the national energy administration, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic from January to February reached 10.86gw We expect that under the terminal demand expectation of 220240gw in 2022, the price center of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to be higher than the previous market expectation. After the supply bottleneck is lifted, the demand growth rate in 2023 may exceed the expectation.
With the continuous offshore and onshore bidding, the installed capacity of wind power is expected to grow rapidly: with the full economic performance of onshore wind power, the new bidding volume of wind farms in China has remained high in the quarter. The bid winning capacity of wind power projects has exceeded 10GW from January to February 2022, which continues to guide the increase of installed demand; The economy of offshore wind power is accelerated, or the demand for wind power in the middle and late period of the 14th five year plan is further thickened; We expect that the installed capacity of new wind power in China will be about 53gw and 72gw respectively from 2022 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 11% and 36%.
Investment suggestion: the release of the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system has defined the development roadmap of China’s energy industry under the guidance of the general direction of double carbon goal, which is expected to accelerate the increase of renewable energy and ensure that there is no worry about the medium-term space for new energy power generation. In terms of photovoltaic, the demand toughness outside China is higher than expected, the annual price center of the industrial chain is expected to move upward, the production scheduling of the manufacturing industry is good, guiding the release of subsequent demand, optimizing the target whose performance is expected to maintain a high growth rate to meet the challenges of the capacity cycle, and the industrialization of hjt and TOPCON batteries is promoted in an all-round way. In terms of wind power, the inflection point of prosperity is ahead of schedule, the demand for offshore wind power may be accelerated, and the supply chain of parts and components may be tight at different stages. Recommendations include the recommendation of ‘ Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) fora series of suggestions, such as the end of the \ , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc.
Risk warning: price competition exceeds expectations; Adverse fluctuations in raw material prices; New energy policy risks; International trade friction risk; Technical iteration risk; Risk absorption; The cost performance of new photovoltaic technology does not meet expectations; Large scale cost reduction does not meet expectations; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
