Today (March 24), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, with occasional intraday rise performance and rapid pressure. The overall trend was weak and maintained a low shock pattern.
On the disk, the subject of covid-19 industrial chain took the lead, while other industries and concept sectors fell more or less, and the local profit-making effect plummeted. Insurance, banking and other sectors had protective actions, while the performance of coal and hydrogen energy targets was relatively bearish. As for the hydrogen energy sector, as of press time, Citychamp Dartong Co.Ltd(600067) , Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) , Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) , Ningxia Younglight Chemicals Co.Ltd(000635) and other trading limits have been raised. It is worth noting that Citychamp Dartong Co.Ltd(600067) , Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) and Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) have been raised for three consecutive trading days.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] coal
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that the global coal supply lacks elasticity and the supply and demand pattern is tight. At present, China’s coal production capacity has entered a contraction period, and the withdrawal of coal production capacity under “carbon neutralization” has accelerated. At the same time, the amendment to the new criminal law suppresses the overproduction of coal mines. Even if some nuclear increased production capacity is released, it is still difficult to change the supply tension in the medium-term 3-5 years; On the import side, the overall output of major international coal producers related to China has fallen sharply, the import can not make up for the gap, and we are facing a shortage of global coal supply. China’s supply gap is expected to expand year by year from 2022 to 2025.
In addition, Cinda Securities said that in the next 2-3 months, as all parts of the South enter the peak summer stage, coal supply will still face great pressure. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that under the premise of steady economic growth, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China’s coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
[Topic 2] hydrogen energy
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that carbon neutralization promotes energy transformation, and hydrogen energy may become a trillion blue ocean market. As a green energy with clean, low-carbon, high calorific value, diverse sources and flexible storage and transportation, hydrogen energy is known as the “ultimate energy” in the 21st century. The development of hydrogen energy industry is the only way for China to achieve the “double carbon” goal. The state has a positive attitude towards the development of hydrogen energy. Since 202, hydrogen energy related support policies have been issued frequently. The industry is expected to usher in a high boom and growth under the catalysis of policies.
Hydrogen energy is widely used, and fuel cell vehicles are the main increment of hydrogen energy demand in the short and medium term. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, under the “carbon neutralization” scenario in 2060, China’s annual demand for hydrogen will increase to about 130 million tons. As a key link in the development and utilization of hydrogen energy, China’s hydrogen stations have entered a stage of rapid development and are expected to reach a market scale of 100 billion by 2050. Large scale and equipment localization can promote the cost reduction of hydrogen stations. At present, the global hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is developing rapidly, and China occupies a dominant position in the global fuel cell bus and commercial vehicle segment market. In the future, with the maturity of fuel cell system technology and the decline of cost, the scale of hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck and passenger vehicle is expected to expand rapidly, which can give play to the advantages of hydrogen volatile fuel cell in the field of long-distance and heavy load.
The agency further proposed that the hydrogen energy industry chain involves many links and application scenarios, has broad development space, and is expected to become a trillion market in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of coal hydrogen production enterprises: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) ; It is suggested to focus on the layout of industrial by-product hydrogen Enterprises: Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , satellite chemistry, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) , Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) , China Xuyang group; It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of hydrogen production enterprises from electrolytic water: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of hydrogenation stations and hydrogenation unit enterprises: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , satellite chemistry, Zhenhai Petrochemical Engineering Co.Ltd(603637) , Sinopec Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co.Ltd(000554) .
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that in 2021, with the implementation of the demonstration application policy, hydrogen energy enterprises will be more clear about the amount of subsidies and product pricing, and the orders of fuel cell vehicle industry chain will increase significantly. Inspired by the medium and long-term industrial planning and the “double carbon” goal, local governments and state-owned enterprises are also expected to actively promote the implementation of hydrogen energy projects and “carbon reduction” applications. We expect that the new increment of fuel cell vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach the level of 8000 ~ 10000, among which hydrogen energy heavy trucks have obvious promotion advantages in terms of subsidy amount and application scenarios. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles increased by more than twice year-on-year in the first two months of this year. We expect that the sales volume of passenger cars / heavy trucks / logistics vehicles will reach 1000 / 3500 / 4500 respectively in 2022. In addition, the shipment volume of hydrogen production, electrolytic cell and storage / transportation / processing industrial chain equipment will also accelerate with the large volume of vehicles, and the industrial development is expected to press the fast forward key.
It is expected that the promotion of green hydrogen will be more in-depth in 2022. On the one hand, with the increase of new energy power stations, the demand for energy storage may promote the increase of some green hydrogen production projects; On the other hand, the demand for green hydrogen in the industrial field is also expected to increase. We expect that the sales volume of electrolytic cell equipment may exceed 1GW in 2022, with the corresponding market scale of 3 ~ 5 billion yuan. The application of new technologies of hydrogen energy is mainly reflected in the field of industrial carbon reduction. These technologies have made rapid progress in 2021, such as hydrogen energy metallurgy and power generation by mixing natural gas with hydrogen. It is expected that new breakthroughs in the application in 2022 are also expected to give birth to new tracks.
[Topic 3] covid-19 drugs
Guosheng securities mentioned that the main line of covid-19 should be strictly selected step by step, attach great importance to domestic covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs, grasp the faucet on the one hand and dig the poor expectation on the other hand. Vaccines should be given renewed attention. In fact, there are four aspects of medium and short-term medicine: covid-19 medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, first quarter report and cdmo after clearing chips From a one-year perspective, under the unique political and economic environment outside China this year, the relative comparative advantage of medicine has become more and more obvious after falling for nearly 9 months. It is suggested to gradually increase the attention and allocation of medicine.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that with the development of oral covid-19 small molecule drugs entering the commercialization stage one after another, the demand for upstream intermediates and APIs has also increased explosively under the catalysis of the epidemic, and the covid-19 industrial chain is unprecedented. Moshadong molnupiravir chain: MPP takes the lead in releasing incremental demand; Pfizer paxlovid chain: the original research capacity is planned to be 120 million courses in 2022 to activate the whole industrial chain; Other chains: yanyeyi’s supply chain drive is imminent, and the domestic oral covid-19 drug chain is worth looking forward to.
Covid-19 supply chain is an important opportunity for China cdmo to open the international market and participate in the global production of innovative drugs. The popularity of covid-19 oral small molecule drugs has brought huge increment to China’s small molecule cdmo. At present, China’s leading small molecule cdmo enterprises have occupied an important position in covid-19 industrial chain with strong capacity supply, cost advantage and delivery capacity. From the perspective of orders, at present, the small molecule cdmo head enterprises Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) and Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) . In terms of production capacity, with the support of sustained high prosperity and large orders, leading enterprises have entered the stage of accelerated production capacity construction.
Investment proposals, the ninth edition of New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan and the expert consensus on prevention and treatment of New Coronavirus pneumonia in Chinese patent medicine have played a new guiding role in China’s COVID-19 prevention and control. No matter Chinese medicine, western medicine, upstream industry chain, etc., all new investment opportunities have been welcomed.
[Topic 4] bank
China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) mentioned that although the credit demand weakened in February and the social financing increment was less than expected, we believe that with the increasing weight of the steady growth policy, the financing demand is expected to gradually stabilize and recover in the future. At the meeting of the finance committee, it was proposed that “new loans should maintain a moderate growth”, and there is no doubt about the sustainability of credit relief. This year’s stable growth and wide credit environment are conducive to the stability of bank fundamentals. The performance of listed banks has maintained rapid growth and stable asset quality in the first two months. At present, the valuation of the sector is at a historical low, and the head bank has also deeply corrected to the low valuation in recent years. It continues to focus on Ping’an, Ningbo, Changshu and postal savings.
Shengang Securities pointed out that this round of bank market Suggestions focus on three main lines: first, the state-owned large banks that have performed well in previous market China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) ; Second, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , which have earlier layout in the field of high-end manufacturing and green loans, and third, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , which have developed rapidly in large retail business.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that from the perspective of policy, considering the current economic pressure in China, it is expected that the steady growth policy is expected to continue to make efforts in real estate and infrastructure investment, driving the expected repair of the market. From a fundamental point of view, the industry performance is uncertain, and the potential adverse pressure is small. The accelerated transformation of financial management business will contribute to new profit growth points. From the perspective of capital, the proportion of institutional heavy positions held in the sector is at a historically low level, and there is little room for further reduction. The current sector is only 0.59 times the static Pb valuation, which is at a historical low.
