Recently, the market volatility has increased significantly, and the investment main line is not clear. In this context, the founders of 10 billion private placement such as juming investment, China Europe Ruibo, Shenzhi assets and Shiva private placement rarely spoke one after another.
Many private equity bosses said that from the perspective of valuation and maximum pullback, the current market probability is in the bottom area, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Wu Weizhi, founder of China Europe Ruibo, said frankly: “last week, I had seven or eight meetings a day when I worked at home. Now it’s time to speed up the research so as not to miss the good opportunity to buy stocks.”
talking about the promising investment direction, the above 10 billion private placement focuses on investment opportunities in the field of new energy, and remains moderately optimistic about high-quality enterprises in Hong Kong stocks
bottom area features obvious
Since this year, the shock adjusted A-Shares have entered the bottom area in the eyes of many 10 billion private equity founders.
Wu Weizhi, founder of China and Europe, said there are three reasons for the shock adjustment of A shares this year. First, the market has been in a strong market for three years, and there is a structural bubble. Second, in the process of market decline, many private placement products need to be forced to stop loss under the requirements of the risk control system, which intensifies the market fluctuation in a short time; Third, the emergence of geographical conflicts has exacerbated panic. It should have been structural adjustment, and the market has evolved into systematic adjustment in a short time however, from the current perspective, the characteristics of the later stage of systematic adjustment are already very obvious.
According to the statistics of China Europe Ruibo, the fluctuation rhythm of Hong Kong Hang Seng technology index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index in recent one year is basically the same, that is, the highest point appears in February 2021. Specifically, the Hang Seng technology index fell by about 40% in the previous two bear markets, but the largest retreat of the Hang Seng technology index since February last year is close to 70%. It can be seen that the Hang Seng technology index fell more thoroughly this time. At the same time, the decline of CSI 300 is also similar to that in 2018.
“Standing at the moment, we can almost be sure that the current is not the initial and medium-term of systematic adjustment, and the probability has reached the later stage. Therefore, I am not afraid at all. Instead, I am more full of expectations for the rise after the end of each systematic adjustment. Last week, I held seven or eight telephone meetings every day at home and office, hoping to speed up the pace of research and avoid wasting the best time to buy stocks.” Wu Weizhi said frankly.
Liu Xiaolong, founder of juming investment, also said that after calculation, as of March 15, the overall market valuation (PE and Pb) was about 5% – 10% higher than the bottom of 2018, which was basically at the bottom. At the same time, comparing the current market with the bottom of the market in 2018, considering the overall profit growth of the gem in the past four years, the bottom range of the gem index this year is about 23 Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) points. “If there is no extremely unexpected situation, it is estimated that the market will fluctuate in a narrow range at the current position for a period of time.”
adjusted energy and Hong Kong stock opportunities emerge
The characteristics of the bottom area are prominent. Which areas have fallen out of the “golden pit”?
Wu Weizhi said that the adjustment of photovoltaic and wind power fields deserves attention. First of all, carbon peaking and carbon neutralization are irresistible trends. Moreover, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Germany has put forward the plan of new energy construction again. Recently, the EU is also considering levying carbon tax. Carbon tax refers to that if carbon emitting energy is used in the production process of goods, additional tax will be required, that is, the carbon tax income may have a subsidy effect on new energy. Therefore, from a medium and long-term perspective, high-quality companies in the field of photovoltaic and wind power after adjustment are worth holding for a long time.
Referring to the investment in the field of new energy, Wu Weizhi believes that the investment in new energy needs to “clear the accounts” in his opinion, there is still a lot of room for many enterprises in the new energy track from the perspective of profitability, but it may be difficult to enjoy beta income for investment this year. We need to pay attention to the matching between valuation and performance, and the internal differentiation of the industry will be significantly intensified.
Liu Xiaolong said that since the second half of last year, the new energy sector has faced the problem of upstream price rise, mainly due to the outbreak of industry demand exceeding expectations. However, the raw materials and oil of traditional fuel vehicles are also facing the problem of price rise. This situation may even accelerate the process of replacing fuel vehicles with electric vehicles. In the medium and long term, replacing fuel vehicles with electric vehicles is a trend, in which there are many bottom-up stock opportunities.
Prudential Asset founder Yu Haifeng is also optimistic about investment opportunities in the field of energy and new energy vehicles. He said that Russia is a big energy country. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to a certain degree of stagnation in the development of oil and gas resources in Russia. The decline in production will lead to the rise of oil prices, thus accelerating the penetration of new energy vehicles. Therefore, there are investment opportunities for both traditional energy and new energy vehicles this year.
For Hong Kong stocks that have fallen sharply in the past year, 10 billion private placement generally remains moderately optimistic.
“As long as it is the capital market, periodicity is its unbreakable destiny. Investor sentiment becomes more pessimistic when losing money and more crazy when making money. Therefore, it is understandable that the current market loses confidence in Hong Kong stocks, but I have no doubt about the periodicity of Hong Kong stocks and the bull market in the future.” Wu Weizhi spoke bluntly.
Yu Haifeng also admitted: “the poor performance of Hong Kong stocks in recent years is mainly due to the gradual withdrawal of European and American funds and the changes of industrial policies. However, after the valuation compression, even in the worst case, the implied rate of return of Hong Kong stocks can bring better returns. After all, many high-quality enterprises in Hong Kong stocks can not find substitutes in a shares, so we should use a more long-term perspective to study and invest in Hong Kong stocks.”
configuration is relatively balanced
Standing at the moment, how is the head private placement arranged?
Liu Xiaolong revealed that in terms of configuration, the company has long been optimistic about the opportunities of China’s manufacturing industry, so the positions of relevant targets account for a relatively high proportion. Among them, some configurations are based on industry attributes, but more are based on bottom-up research and investment. For example, there are not only high-quality companies in military industry, new energy, semiconductor and other industries in the portfolio, but also specialized special new and invisible champion companies in the sub segment segments of manufacturing industry. The latter may fluctuate greatly, but the certainty of growth is very high.
In addition, the company also pays more attention to the fields of power, medicine, furniture, building materials and so on. For example, last year, due to the high rise in coal prices, the power industry suffered serious losses. Subsequently, with the slowdown of the pace of carbon neutralization, and new energy can not completely replace coal and electricity, the situation of the industry will improve. At the same time, last year, furniture, household appliances, building materials and other fields in the upper reaches of the real estate industry chain were seriously damaged, and the follow-up is expected to be repaired.
Yu Haifeng also admitted: “at present, the position is more than 90%. We should be optimistic strategically and cautious tactically. We will check our position, hold companies with strong core competitiveness and avoid defective enterprises. At present, consumption, energy and new energy vehicles are the direction we pay attention to.”
At the same time, after the adjustment of the layout of photovoltaic technology in the downstream sector, the main investment opportunities of SAAS and SaaS in the downstream sector have increased.
ten billion private placement leaders continue to reflect
In addition to sharing views at the market level, a number of 10 billion private placement leaders have also reflected recently.
According to the third-party platform data, as of March 18, the net value of many new funds established in early 2021 under Shiva private placement was close to 0.75 yuan, and the maximum withdrawal of some products exceeded 40%. On March 22, Liang Hong summarized his four mistakes in a letter to investors and apologized to investors. He reflected that first, many funds were issued at a high level in the past year, resulting in a loss of a whole year after many investors bought them; Second, at the end of January this year, the new fund increased its positions. Unexpectedly, China concept stocks and Hong Kong stocks continued to fall, resulting in a small number of funds being forced to reduce their positions last Monday; Third, push the new fund managers who have not experienced the test of the bear market to the front stage too early; Fourth, it was too optimistic at the high level of the market last February and did not reduce its position.
Gao Yuncheng, general manager of Jinglin assets, also said yesterday that reflecting on the large fluctuations in some industries in the past year, how to improve the stability and balance of the portfolio is the direction of our discussion and research. In the future, Jinglin assets will invest more evenly in Listed Companies in different industries and regions, so that investors can hold products more comfortably. In addition, in the future, we will pay more attention to the time selection of issuing products, avoid the high point of the market or when investors are more excited, and try to raise funds at the low level of the market. “This requires channels, customers and Jinglin assets to have common values. Although it is not easy, it is the direction of the company’s efforts.”
