Today (March 24), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern. The three major stock indexes opened low in the morning and maintained the green market shock. The weakness was more obvious. In the afternoon, the index showed signs of upward attack, especially the gem index, which once turned red. Unfortunately, it was difficult to stand alone and weaken again. Finally, the three major indexes closed down slightly.
In this regard, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) mentioned that although the market still has repeated risks in the short term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the future performance of a shares. In the near future, the market may be at the bottom stage. In the future, with the accelerated improvement of new social finance and the easing of external negative factors, A-Shares are expected to usher in the starting point of a new round of upward cycle.
At the same time, Ping An Securities also said that A-Shares are expected to usher in the bottom grinding and repair stage in the short term; However, under the background that the spread of the epidemic has dragged down consumption / production / infrastructure construction and real estate demand is still weak, China's fundamental pressure expectation has not reversed, and the pace of market participation still needs to be controlled. In terms of structure, it is suggested to select industries and companies with relatively high prosperity. Attention can be paid to high-end manufacturing, new infrastructure, pharmaceutical sector, inflation benefit sector, etc. at the same time, attention should also be paid to preventing industries and companies with obvious deterioration of fundamentals.
sector:
I. precious metals
East Asia Qianhai securities mentioned that gold entered an important allocation time point. Gold market is highly liquid, and market expectation often plays an important role. Looking back on the past six interest rate hikes, the average rise and fall of gold in the year, half a year and one month before the Fed's interest rate hike were 10.37%, - 0.99% and - 1.32% respectively; The average increase and decrease in the following year, half a year and one month were 6.67%, 7.81% and 0.02% respectively. The performance of the gold market after the interest rate increase is better than that before the interest rate increase, indicating that the release of market concerns has played a positive role in promoting the gold price.
The winning rate of gold is higher in the future. 1) The inflection point of structural high inflation after the epidemic is approaching, and the lethality of this factor to negative interest rate bonds will weaken.
2) the US economy may slow down in Q4, and the risk of recession next year is very high. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggers a supply chain crisis, the United States and even the world will usher in an economic recession earlier. In the coming year, the profitability of US stocks will gradually weaken, and the demands of institutional investors for the allocation of safe assets such as gold will rise.
3) the expectation of table contraction has been partially digested. The probability of 10-year US bond yield breaking 2.5% is not high, and the peak is expected to be before and after the landing of table contraction boots. With the landing of the scale reduction boots, the approach of the mid-term election and the emergence of downward pressure on the economy, the yield of 10-year US bonds may enter the downward cycle from the end of Q2 to the beginning of Q3. The scale of global negative interest rate bonds is expected to rebound again, and gold will also rebound for about a year. At present, although it is still slightly on the left, the allocation value of gold has been very significant.
II. Covid-19 drugs
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that with the development of oral covid-19 small molecule drugs entering the commercialization stage one after another, the demand for upstream intermediates and APIs has also increased explosively under the catalysis of the epidemic, and the covid-19 industrial chain is unprecedented. Moshadong molnupiravir chain: MPP takes the lead in releasing incremental demand; Pfizer paxlovid chain: the original research capacity is planned to be 120 million courses in 2022 to activate the whole industrial chain; Other chains: yanyeyi's supply chain drive is imminent, and the domestic oral covid-19 drug chain is worth looking forward to.
Guosheng securities mentioned that the main line of covid-19 should be strictly selected step by step, attach great importance to domestic covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs, grasp the faucet on the one hand and dig the poor expectation on the other hand. Vaccines should be given renewed attention. In fact, there are four aspects of medium and short-term medicine: covid-19 medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, first quarter report and cdmo after clearing chips From a one-year perspective, under the unique political and economic environment outside China this year, the relative comparative advantage of medicine has become more and more obvious after falling for nearly 9 months. It is suggested to gradually increase the attention and allocation of medicine.
Medicine has a comparative advantage this year, but it is still bottom-up. Focus on four aspects: covid-19 (Medicine & vaccine), traditional Chinese medicine, quarterly report and cdmo after clearing chips From the perspective of configuration ideas, covid-19 lines: (1) covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) . (2) Covid-19 vaccine: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) etc. (3) Traditional Chinese medicine anti epidemic: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) etc. (4) Covid-19 small molecule supply chain: Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , etc.
Traditional Chinese medicine line: (1) national reform of traditional Chinese medicine: Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) . (2) Innovative traditional Chinese medicine: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , etc. (3) High growth of underestimated value of traditional Chinese medicine: Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603439) .
Other business lines: (1) vaccine: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) ; (2) The CrO ( Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) etc.); (4) CGT ( Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Northland, Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) ); (5) Rehabilitation: Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , Beijing Chieftain Control Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300430) etc; (6) Rabies monoclonal antibody: Hunan Nucien Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688189) . (7) Injection outlet ( Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) ).
one drawing summary:
