Key investment points:
The wholesale price of high-end liquor continues to fall, and the cost of popular products remains to be seen
February 2022 data showed that the wholesale price of high-end Baijiu continued to decline, the public goods prices rose signs of raw materials. Among them, flying Moutai 53 degrees (500ML) high-end liquor prices before last year's Spring Festival before the highest price of 3300 yuan, after the small fall after the high volatility, last year's national day price continued to reach 3880 yuan after continuing downward, recently cancelled by the box sales policy, the original box a further lower price, Baijiu after the Spring Festival prices continue to fall slightly, the current price of 2920 yuan. Beer and wine prices did not fluctuate significantly. As of February this year, the cumulative beer output was basically the same as that in 2019. In terms of cost environment, the price of pork is close to the relative bottom. After a slight rebound in the short term, the price of fresh milk continues to fall slightly month on month, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuates at a high level. However, due to geopolitical factors, the price of packaging materials has begun to rebound slightly. At present, the cost environment is still facing some pressure to be observed.
Investment advice
Since the beginning of the year, the food and beverage sector has continued its downward trend. With the opening of the US dollar interest rate hike cycle and geopolitical factors, the liquidity disturbance caused by northward funds has suppressed the formation of the sector. In addition, the repeated epidemic and the slow recovery trend of consumption have led to fluctuations in consumption and investment sentiment. From the monthly data, there is no substantial change in the industry as a whole, and the upstream cost pressure remains to be observed. At the current time point, we still suggest to select the subject matter with reasonable valuation and its own growth attributes. On the sector, we suggest that we must focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market. In terms of popular products, it is still recommended to optimize the dairy industry with downward cost determination during the year and the beer sector with relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission. The beer sector will continue to benefit from the gradual recovery of consumption scenes after the epidemic, with the positive impact of price increase and high-end products, and high growth is expected. To sum up, we temporarily give the industry a "neutral" investment rating and recommend Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ( Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ), Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) ( Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) ), Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) ( Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) ), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) ( Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) ) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) ( Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) ).
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, major food safety risks, and epidemic prevention and control are less than expected.
