In 2022, lithium technology will be further upgraded as the leading technology. In 2022, the price of raw materials is high, the cost of lithium battery is under great pressure, and technological innovation is the means to reduce the cost Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) focuses on the energy density, fast charging, safety and cost of the battery, and has a deep technical reserve from the two aspects of electrochemical system upgrading and structural innovation, supporting the continuous improvement of the subsequent global share. We expect that from the two aspects of material system upgrading and packaging form improvement, the technological progress will accelerate in 2022, the penetration of materials such as ultra-high nickel + lithium ferromanganese + silicon carbon cathode + carbon nanotube + lifsi will accelerate, the 4680 large cylinders will be installed and delivered in 2022, and the long-term plan is huge. New battery technologies such as sodium ion battery are also expected to be implemented in 2023, driving the increase of structural demand of the industry.
Lithium and nickel manganese are the core of electrochemical upgrading. Ternary high nickel is the general trend. In 2021, the share has increased to 40%, and 2h22 pure electric platform of overseas car enterprises has been launched, and the proportion of high nickel has increased. In the next 23 years, the ultra-high nickel cathode will be mass produced on a large scale. Ningde at the battery end and Baibai at the material end will take the lead in the layout. Lithium manganese iron phosphate is the upgrading direction of lithium iron phosphate. It has the advantages of iron and lithium. At the same time, it can increase the energy density by 20%, but it has poor conductivity, difficult process and high barriers. At present, Ningde at the battery end and Germany at the material end are making rapid progress. We expect large-scale mass production in the first half of 2023. In addition, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) puts forward the new technical route of m3p, which is expected to become a new direction in the future. At the same time, the upgrading of the positive electrode will drive the supporting negative electrode (high voltage, siliconization), electrolyte (new lithium salt additive), diaphragm (thinning), copper foil (thinning, new pet Technology) and conductive agent (carbon tube proportion increase).
The structural system innovation takes large capacity and high integration as the trend, and 4680 battery, CTP / CTC technology and blade battery as the main direction. The core of structural innovation is large capacity and high integration, with 4680, CTP and CTC as the direction; 4680 large cylindrical battery Q1 Tesla has been successfully mass produced in 2022. The large cylinder will drive the demand for high nickel positive electrode + silicon carbon negative electrode + carbon nanotube conductive agent + large cylindrical structural parts + new lithium salt. CTP technology has no modularization, which can increase energy density by 20% and reduce cost by 10%. Ningde and Byd Company Limited(002594) have been mature and popularized in 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ctp3 0 and 4.0 technology development will promote the further improvement of battery energy density. CTC is expected to mass produce in 2025 to enhance the voice of battery enterprises over vehicle manufacturers.
The technology of sodium battery has matured. It will be mass produced in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2023, and it will take 5-10 years for the technology of solid-state battery to mature. In terms of new battery technology route, sodium battery is advancing steadily, supplemented in the short term, and semi-solid is the long-term direction. The cost advantage of sodium ion battery is more prominent than that of lithium battery when it is mature. It will be used in energy storage and other fields to supplement lithium battery. In the case of high lithium carbonate price, the promotion of sodium ion battery will accelerate, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is expected to be mass produced in 2023. Semi solid and solid-state batteries are the next generation of lithium battery technology. At present, they are still in the laboratory stage. We expect that the technology is expected to mature after 2030, and the leaders will take the lead.
Investment suggestion: the valuation of electric vehicles has dropped to the bottom, the 22-year high outlook continues, and we expect to maintain a high growth of 80-100% in the leading performance. We will continue to be bullish on the electric vehicle leaders in an all-round way. The first main line is optimistic about the 22-year profitable repair of the battery link, with a good long-term pattern and superimposed energy storage support. We recommend the leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , and the second main line is the upgrading of battery technology, The high nickel Trio (recommended for the Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); The third article is the leading of the continuous shortage: the diaphragm (recommended for Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 812 \ , pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ); Article 4: lithium is in short supply and the price is higher than expected. Pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , etc.
Risk tip: price competition exceeds expectations, raw material prices are unstable, affecting profit margins, declining investment growth and the impact of the epidemic
