China's first medium and long-term plan for hydrogen energy industry has been implemented. On the 23rd, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035) (hereinafter referred to as the plan).
The plan specifies that by 2025, we will basically master the core technology and manufacturing process, and initially establish a hydrogen energy supply system focusing on the nearby utilization of industrial by-product hydrogen and renewable energy hydrogen production. By 2030, a relatively complete technological innovation system for hydrogen energy industry and a clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed to effectively support the realization of the carbon peak goal. By 2035, a diversified application ecology of hydrogen energy will be formed, and the proportion of hydrogen production from renewable energy in terminal energy consumption will increase significantly.
Focusing on the key links of "production, storage, transmission and utilization" of hydrogen energy, as well as hydrogen safety and public services, the plan puts forward four tasks, including building an innovation system of hydrogen energy industry, promoting the construction of hydrogen energy infrastructure, steadily promoting the demonstration and application of hydrogen energy, and improving the policy and institutional guarantee system.
Wang Xiang, deputy director of the high technology department of the national development and Reform Commission, told China first finance and economics at a press conference held on the same day: "when studying and formulating plans and support policies for the development of hydrogen energy industry, all localities should fully consider the development basis and conditions of the region, make overall planning and rational layout, and follow the plan We should make unified arrangements and do not make one step and one size fits all. It is strictly prohibited to blindly follow the trend and rush into mass action regardless of local conditions, so as to prevent low-level repeated construction and avoid wasting infrastructure and resources. "
According to the previous prediction of China gas energy alliance, the output value of China's hydrogen energy industry will reach 1 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2025 and 5 trillion yuan from 2026 to 2035. Affected by the good news, the capital market was moved by the wind. On the 23rd, hydrogen fuel cell concept stocks opened up sharply, and Hengguang shares, Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) and other stocks rose by the limit.
adhere to innovation driven development and accelerate the construction of innovation system
China is the world's largest hydrogen producer, with an annual hydrogen production of about 33 million tons, of which about 12 million tons meet the industrial hydrogen quality standard. However, at the same time, China's hydrogen energy industry is still in the early stage of development, facing many challenges, such as weak industrial innovation ability, low level of technical equipment, lagging basic system supporting industrial development and so on.
Based on the above background, the plan puts forward four basic principles: innovation leading, self-reliance and self-improvement; Safety first, clean and low-carbon; Market leading and government guiding; Steady and careful application, demonstration first.
Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and professor of Tsinghua University, said in the interpretation of the article that the chain of hydrogen energy technology is long and there are many difficulties, and the existing technical economy can not fully meet the practical needs. It is urgent to make innovations and breakthroughs in the main links such as hydrogen energy preparation, storage and transportation, filling, fuel cell and hydrogen energy storage system, focusing on breaking through the "neck" technology. For example, proton exchange membranes that seriously affect the life and cost of fuel cells.
"Compared with electrochemical power cells, China's hydrogen fuel cells are relatively weak in technical reserves, industrial foundation and talent team, and there is also a certain gap with the international advanced level. It is suggested to establish a hydrogen energy innovation platform as soon as possible, carry out key core technology research and talent training, and build a self-reliance and self-improvement science and technology system." Ouyang Minggao said.
The plan specifies that we should adhere to innovation driven development, accelerate the construction of hydrogen energy innovation system, and drive product innovation, application innovation and business model innovation based on demand. Focus on breaking through the technical bottleneck of hydrogen energy industry, establish and improve the industrial technology and equipment system, and enhance the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain and supply chain. Make full use of global innovation resources and actively participate in global hydrogen energy technology and industrial innovation cooperation.
Sun Liping, director of the energy finance research center of the International Research Institute of green finance of the Central University of Finance and economics, analyzed the first finance and economics. In the past, some industries in China have mainly adopted the strategy of "introduction, digestion, absorption and re innovation", and the catch-up effect is relatively significant. But now, in the process of moving towards the middle and high-end of the global industrial chain, China pays more attention to original and basic research.
"Planning" It is emphasized to follow the basic principle of self-reliance and self-improvement, which means that innovative enterprises may face greater risks and tests. Their reference models are very limited, which puts forward higher requirements for China's innovation environment and innovation ecology. At present, China urgently needs to improve and innovate the system to adapt to the law of innovation and give full play to the flexibility and initiative of market players. Among them, the capital market, as the core link of resource allocation, needs to accelerate the pace and promote further optimization. " Sun Liping said.
In terms of strengthening financial support, the plan emphasizes the need to give full play to the guiding role of investment in the central budget and support the development of hydrogen energy related industries. Strengthen financial support, encourage banking financial institutions to support the development of hydrogen energy industry in accordance with the principles of controllable risk and commercial sustainability, and use scientific and technological means to provide accurate and differentiated financial services for high-quality enterprises. Encourage industrial investment funds and venture capital funds to support hydrogen energy innovative enterprises in accordance with the principle of marketization, and promote the transfer and transformation of scientific and technological achievements. Support qualified hydrogen energy enterprises to register for listing and financing on the science and innovation board, gem, etc.
focus on the development of hydrogen production from renewable energy, and it is strictly prohibited to "run a horse and enclosure"
One of the highlights of the plan is to put forward three specific quantitative objectives, that is, by 2025, basically master the core technology and manufacturing process, have about 50000 fuel cell vehicles, deploy and build a number of hydrogen refueling stations, produce 100000 ~ 200000 tons of hydrogen from renewable energy, and reduce carbon dioxide emission by 1 ~ 2 million tons / year.
Zhang Jianhong, senior engineer of China International Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., analyzed China first finance and economics. At present, China has about 10000 fuel cell vehicles. The goal of the four-year demonstration period of the "3 + 2" urban agglomeration of the national fuel cell vehicle demonstration and application city is 32305 vehicles, which is nearly 8000 vehicles short of the target of 50000 vehicles. He believes that filling this gap may be achieved by adding the second batch of urban agglomerations or by other areas with demonstration basis.
"The target of renewable energy hydrogen production in 2025 is relatively stable and cautious. The total output of renewable energy hydrogen production projects planned in some places far exceeds this scale." Zhang Jianhong said that in the near future, the plan proposes two technical routes for the nearby utilization of industrial by-product hydrogen and renewable energy hydrogen production. However, in the medium and long term, the plan emphasizes the development of renewable energy for hydrogen production.
Industry insiders believe that with the further improvement of hydrogen energy policy and the determination of more pragmatic development goals, it will contribute to the large-scale implementation of China's hydrogen energy industry chain and the rapid rise of relevant leading manufacturers in the industry, just like the development route of lithium battery industry chain in the past.
In fact, as an ideal clean energy under the goal of carbon neutralization, hydrogen energy has frequently received policy support in recent years. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guizhou and Sichuan provinces have issued policies or plans related to hydrogen energy. However, there are signs of blindly following the trend, homogeneous competition and low-level construction in some places.
In response, Wang Xiang said at the press conference that all localities should comprehensively consider the hydrogen energy supply capacity, industrial foundation and market space of the region, reasonably arrange the industrial chain related projects such as hydrogen energy preparation, storage and transportation, filling and Application on the basis of scientific demonstration, and steadily, carefully and orderly promote the project construction.
It is strictly prohibited to "run a horse and enclosure" in the name of building hydrogen energy projects.
"In the next step, we will work with relevant departments to strengthen overall planning and coordination, strengthen policy guidance and support, and actively promote the smooth implementation of the plan." Wang Xiang said.
market speculation has no fundamental support
Although the hydrogen energy industry is expected to usher in a high boom and growth period under the catalysis of policies, it should be noted that it will take time for the full localization of hydrogen fuel cell technology and materials, the penetration rate of commercial vehicles has not yet ushered in an inflection point, and the stock price speculation does not have basic elements.
According to Xiang Hong (a pseudonym), general manager of a hydrogen fuel vehicle enterprise, hydrogen fuel cells are expected to fill the short board of lithium batteries, give play to their advantages in heavy load, severe cold and long-distance scenarios, and effectively cover the demand for new energy commercial vehicles. "The energy replenishment time of hydrogen fuel vehicles is almost the same as that of fuel vehicles. All links including hydrogen energy extraction, transportation and preparation are pollution-free, and can still start smoothly in extreme weather such as low temperature and high temperature. These are the conditions that electric vehicles do not have, and they are also the main reason why hydrogen fuel vehicles can cover transportation logistics vehicles and connecting commercial vehicles."
As the world's largest heavy truck market, China is expected to take the lead in increasing the penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. According to the data, in 2020, China's output of heavy trucks was 2.98 million, accounting for 68.3% of the world, which is one of the countries most likely to support the development of hydrogen energy heavy trucks.
However, the high cost caused by the bottleneck of technology and materials is the main factor restricting the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. "On the one hand, the cost is high, which is reflected in the fact that some equipment and new materials still depend on imports, and the localization of the whole industrial chain needs at least 2-3 years. The lack of hydrogen refueling stations is also a bottleneck, and the infrastructure needs to be supplemented quickly. In addition, relevant laws and regulations need to be further improved." Xiang Hong said. For example, key materials such as catalysts have not been localized, mainly due to insufficient basic chemical research. Once localized, the cost can be reduced a lot.
Many people in the new energy vehicle industry interviewed by the reporter also believe that it takes time and scale accumulation to achieve cost reduction. It is expected that China's hydrogen fuel cell will have the first inflection point around 2025 - the key node for the application penetration of commercial vehicles to exceed 1%.
"The plan defines the direction of development. Once the cost reduction path is clear and the construction of hydrogen refueling stations is relatively mature, with local governments replacing subsidies with awards, leading enterprises will emerge in various segments of hydrogen fuel vehicles, forming a benign competition pattern." A new energy industry analyst said that the future competition will mainly focus on the performance at low temperature, vehicle cost, hydrogenation convenience, etc. now most hydrogen fuel cell vehicle enterprises are still in a state of loss.
For example, as the "first share of hydrogen energy" of the science and innovation board, Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) is mainly engaged in the manufacturing of fuel cell vehicle systems, but the operating cash flow is continuous, and the annual deficit and loss are getting worse and worse. In the face of operating difficulties, the company had to seek the secondary listing of Hong Kong stocks.
Industry insiders said that the past 1-2 years will be a critical period for the future subdivision of leading enterprises. For the industrial chain that has not yet formed a scale, the risk of hot speculation in the secondary market still needs to be vigilant.
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