Matters:
Event: on March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly issued the 14th five year plan for modern energy system. It is suggested to pay attention to the two main lines of the plan. First, the low-carbon transformation will not stop, and the development of scenery should be continuously promoted. It is expected to observe the continuous improvement of the installed capacity data of scenery in the future; Second, it emphasizes to ensure energy security through multiple energy complementarity and flexible regulation. On the one hand, it smoothes the impact of scenery through multiple energy complementarity, and on the other hand, it improves the regulation capacity of power grid through pumped storage and thermal power flexibility transformation.
Comments:
The driving force of scenery development is still strong, and the development of large base and distributed photovoltaic is not reduced. On the one hand, the promotion of large base projects is in full swing. The plan again emphasizes the need to accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas. Judging from the current development progress, 75gw of the first batch of 97gw base projects have been promoted in 21 years. As the state requires the first batch of projects to be built as much as possible, we believe that other projects will be implemented as soon as possible. At the same time, the second batch of 450gw Fengguang large base project planning has also been issued, and 200GW is expected to be put into operation during the 14th Five Year Plan period On the other hand, distributed photovoltaic is expected to reach a new high. The plan requires to speed up the construction of distributed wind power and distributed photovoltaic in the load center and surrounding areas, and actively promote the reform of rural energy. The newly added distributed photovoltaic is expected to reach a new high this year after exceeding the centralized one for the first time in 21 years. According to the data, from January to February, the installed capacity of scenery increased by 18.4gw, an increase of + 114% over the same period last year. We believe that driven by the national active scenery development policy, the driving force of scenery development is still strong, and the ceiling of growth will be further opened.
Ensure complementary energy security. 1) Thermal power is advancing steadily. Under the active coal policy, thermal power recovery is imminent:
In the long term, the plan points out that by 2025, China’s annual comprehensive energy production capacity will reach more than 4.6 billion tons of standard coal; In the near future, 300 million tons of coal production capacity will be released in an orderly manner, and the daily output is expected to reach 1260 tons. With the improvement of coal supply elasticity, coal prices are expected to gradually fall, and the recovery of thermal power is in sight. 2) Develop hydropower according to local conditions: promote the construction of hydropower projects in the upper reaches of Jinsha River, the middle reaches of Yalong River and the upper reaches of the Yellow River. By 2025, the installed capacity of conventional hydropower will reach about 380 million KW. 3) Actively, safely and orderly develop nuclear power: actively and orderly promote the construction of coastal nuclear power projects, maintain a stable pace of construction, and reasonably arrange new coastal nuclear power projects. By 2025, the installed capacity of nuclear power operation will reach about 70gw, an increase of about 20GW compared with 20 years.
The power consumption capacity will be further strengthened, and the pumped storage and thermal power transformation will follow the trend. 1) Pumping and storage:
The plan points out that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of pumped storage power stations, implement a new round of national medium and long-term development plan for pumped storage, and promote the construction of large-scale pumped storage power stations that have been included in the plan and are mature. In 2025, the installed capacity of pumped storage will reach more than 62gw and the installed capacity under construction will reach about 60GW, which is expected to double the current 32gw installed capacity. 2) In terms of thermal power transformation: we should accelerate the transformation of coal-fired power from the main power supply to the basic guarantee and system regulatory power supply that provides reliable capacity, peak shaving and frequency regulation and other auxiliary services, give full play to the emergency peak shaving capacity of existing coal-fired power units, and orderly promote the construction of supporting and regulatory power supply. It is estimated that in 2025, the scale of flexible transformation of coal-fired power units will exceed 200 million KW, which is different from the tepid and tepid thermal power transformation policy in the 13th Five Year Plan period. The state will attach great importance to it during the 14th Five Year Plan period. We believe that the transformation of 200 million KW will be highly deterministic.
Investment opinion: new energy operators are expected to benefit from the accelerated development of scenery under the dual carbon goal. We recommend China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , and we suggest paying attention to Longyuan Power, Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , etc; With the increasing elasticity of coal supply and the imminent recovery of thermal power, it is suggested to pay attention to the transformation of thermal power to new energy Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ; Nuclear power will make steady progress in the follow-up. It is suggested to pay attention to the China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , where the volume and price rise is obvious and the transformation of new energy is progressing steadily; For the flexible transformation of thermal power, it is suggested to pay attention to the standard Qingdao Daneng Environmental Protection Equipment Co.Ltd(688501) , Xizi Jieneng.
Risk tips: the promotion of large base projects is less than expected, the expansion of distributed photovoltaic is less than expected, the risk that coal prices are difficult to fall, the flexible transformation of thermal power is less than expected, and the promotion of pumped storage is less than expected.
