Event: on March 15, China Electricity Council released the power consumption from January to February 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released the energy production from January to February, and the National Bureau of statistics released the PMI index announcement in February.
From January to February 2022, the total electricity demand of the whole society was 1346.7 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and a compound increase of 15% in two years. According to the data of China electricity Union, by province, except Yunnan, Tianjin and Inner Mongolia, the whole society’s power consumption in other provinces has achieved positive growth, and the growth rate of 14 provinces is higher than the national average. In terms of regions, the power consumption of the whole society in the East, middle, West and northeast regions was 5657, 2407, 3754 and 77 billion kwh respectively, with growth rates of 27.0%, 20.8%, 19.2% and 10.0% respectively. By industry, from January to February, the power consumption of the primary industry was 16.3 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%; The power consumption of the secondary industry was 841.3 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 248.8 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 240.3 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; Industrial power consumption was 825.7 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.
The macroeconomic recovery continued and the heating demand increased under low temperature weather. In February, the power consumption of the whole society was 623.5 billion kwh, an increase of 16.94% year-on-year. According to the data of the national energy administration, the power consumption of the primary industry was 7.7 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%; The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 375.6 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%; The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 118.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 122 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%; Industrial power consumption was 369.3 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%.
In February, the comprehensive PMI index was 51.2%, and the overall expansion of production and operation activities accelerated. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the purchasing manager index of China’s manufacturing industry in February 2022 was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry rebounded slightly; The non manufacturing business activity index was 51.6%, a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month. The overall recovery pace of the non manufacturing industry was accelerated, of which the construction business activity index was 57.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous month. The activity indexes of railway, air transportation, monetary and financial services, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries were in a higher range of more than 55%. The three indexes are located in the expansion range, indicating that China’s economic prosperity has rebounded on the whole.
From January to February 2022, the national power generation was 1314.1 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. Thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation increased to varying degrees, and the growth rate of wind power generation decreased slightly. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, thermal power increased by 4.3% year-on-year, hydropower increased by 8.2%, nuclear power increased by 9.6%, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation increased by 6.5%, and wind power decreased by 7.6%. The cumulative average utilization of power generation equipment in China was 597 hours, a decrease of 8 hours over the same period last year. The power generation capacity of all power sources, except wind power, achieved steady growth. Affected by the wind, the average utilization hours of wind power from January to February are only 323 hours, a decrease of 96 hours compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 24%.
As of February 2022, the national installed power generation capacity has reached 2.394 billion kw, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and the installed capacity of Fengguang has increased by 17.5% and 13.2% respectively, maintaining high-speed growth. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power is 1.3 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, accounting for 54% of the total; The installed capacity of hydropower totaled 393 million KW, an increase of 6% year-on-year, accounting for 16.4% of the total; The installed capacity of nuclear power totaled 53 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, accounting for 2.2% of the total; The installed capacity of wind power totaled 334 million kwh, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, accounting for 14% of the total The total installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation is 316 million kwh, accounting for 13.2% of the total. The total installed capacity of renewable energy is about 4.3 billion kwh, accounting for about 1.0%.
Investment suggestion: the rise of electricity price in the market is superimposed on the limited rise and fall of coal price as a whole, the profit stability of thermal power is enhanced, and the performance is expected to rebound sharply this year. Good cash flow will help enterprises quickly transform and develop new energy. Recommended targets: Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) (a + H), related targets: China Resources Power (H), Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) . The integration of water, scenery and renewable energy will become an important driving force for new energy development and is expected to bring the second growth curve to hydropower enterprises. Recommended targets: China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) . Under the goal of “double carbon”, the new energy industry has broad development prospects, and high-quality enterprises will expand rapidly. In the latest draft budget, the Ministry of Finance clearly proposed to promote the settlement of the funding gap of renewable energy power generation subsidies, and the cash flow of new energy operators is expected to improve. Recommended targets: Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , related targets: China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power. After the price difference between peak and valley is widened, the pumping and storage operators are expected to obtain excess returns through the spot market. The relevant subject matter: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) (after the reorganization is completed).
After the implementation of the time-sharing mechanism, the economy of energy storage will be significantly improved, and the market scale is expected to expand. The relevant targets: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) .
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuations, the improvement of the epidemic situation is less than expected, the rise of coal prices is higher than expected, the demand for electricity is declining, and the risk of environmental protection policies.
