The medium and long-term development plan of hydrogen energy industry will be released soon, which will help to improve the development expectation of the industry and catalyze the market sentiment.
With the continuous improvement of hydrogen energy policy system, the development of the industry is expected to press the fast forward key. We suggest continuing to pay attention to companies with first mover advantages and technological advantages in each sub industrial chain.
The industrial top-level design is about to be implemented, and the multi-dimensional policy system is gradually improved. The national development and Reform Commission issued a notice on its website that a press conference will be held on March 23 to introduce the medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035). It is expected that the plan, as the top-level design for the development of hydrogen energy industry, will clarify the industrial development objectives, application prospects and development path, and jointly launch the fuel cell demonstration application policy and the hydrogen energy industry planning of local governments at the end of August last year. The policy system of hydrogen energy industry has been gradually improved. The establishment of the industry’s “rules of the game” and policy system will help to encourage large-scale and technologically leading leading enterprises to stand out, strengthen investors’ confidence in the development of hydrogen energy industry and boost the long-term expectation of the industry.
In 2022, the industry development is expected to press the fast forward key. In 2021, with the implementation of the demonstration application policy, hydrogen energy enterprises will be more clear about the subsidy amount and product pricing, and the orders of fuel cell vehicle industry chain will increase significantly. Inspired by the medium and long-term industrial planning and the “double carbon” goal, local governments and state-owned enterprises are also expected to actively promote the implementation of hydrogen energy projects and “carbon reduction” applications. We expect that the new increment of fuel cell vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach the level of 8000 ~ 10000, among which hydrogen energy heavy trucks have obvious promotion advantages in terms of subsidy amount and application scenarios. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles increased by more than twice year-on-year in the first two months of this year. We expect that the sales volume of passenger cars / heavy trucks / logistics vehicles will reach 1000 / 3500 / 4500 respectively in 2022. In addition, the shipment volume of hydrogen production, electrolytic cell and storage / transportation / processing industrial chain equipment will also accelerate with the large volume of vehicles, and the industrial development is expected to press the fast forward key.
Not only hydrogen vehicles: new breakthroughs may be made in the application of green hydrogen and industrial fields. It is expected that the promotion of green hydrogen will be more in-depth in 2022. On the one hand, with the increase of new energy power stations, the demand for energy storage may promote the increase of some green hydrogen production projects; On the other hand, the demand for green hydrogen in the industrial field is also expected to increase. We expect that the sales volume of electrolytic cell equipment may exceed 1GW in 2022, with the corresponding market scale of 3 ~ 5 billion yuan. The application of new technologies of hydrogen energy is mainly reflected in the field of industrial carbon reduction. These technologies have made rapid progress in 2021, such as hydrogen energy metallurgy and power generation by mixing natural gas with hydrogen. It is expected that new breakthroughs in the application in 2022 are also expected to give birth to new tracks.
Risk factors: slow progress of key technologies; The implementation of industrial support policies was lower than expected.
Investment strategy. The introduction of new policies to promote the development of hydrogen energy industry in 2021 may lead to a new round of market driven development of hydrogen energy industry. With the increase of layout enterprises and the appearance of policy effects, the expectation of industry industrialization acceleration is more clear. We suggest that we focus on companies that are actively laying out and have first mover advantages in every aspect of the hydrogen energy industry chain that we recommend to focus on companies that are actively laying out and have a first mover advantage in every aspect of the hydrogen energy industry chain, including: fuel cell stacks, system related Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) 860 , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) , Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co.Ltd(300228) , related to green hydrogen production and application Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
