For the general rise in commodity prices since February, we believe that the main driving factor for the rise in prices lies in the impact of the tension between Russia and Ukraine on commodity supply and supply expectations. Another main line of price increase is the category related to China's "steady growth", mainly black commodities such as thread and coal. Since the beginning of the year, China's policy level has made intensive statements on steady growth, which makes the recovery expectations of infrastructure and real estate continue to be strong, forming an important driver of industrial product prices.
Looking ahead, overseas, if the tension between Russia and Ukraine continues to seesaw, the probability of commodity prices will fluctuate at a high level. If the situation can be eased in the medium term, the geopolitical premium of energy, metals, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) etc. may be expected to subside, and the price will face the return of the increase. However, for most commodities, the expected spot price is still supported by the tight supply and demand structure, which is difficult to fall sharply.
Next, China's main line, that is, the rise in the price of industrial products, may be more noteworthy, or will resonate with overseas inflation. As the construction enters the peak season, the production capacity is still expected to continue to recover, coupled with the continuous adjustment of infrastructure and real estate policies, the transformation from expected transactions with strong demand to actual transactions, or continue to drive the price of industrial products.
At the time point, we expect that infrastructure investment is expected to continue to pick up in the second quarter, and then the improvement of real estate investment in the third quarter may continue to drive the demand for industrial products.
