On March 23, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) with the theme of “entering the new economy in 30 years”, held the capital market spring strategy meeting in Shanghai through the network platform to deeply explore the current hot topics.
Yang Yucheng, President of Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) securities, said that 2022 is the second year of the high-quality road of the 14th five year plan. Financial development has become the top priority of stabilizing the economy in 2022. The development of green economy is China’s commitment to the world, and digital economy is the brightest star in the current economy. Leveraging economic development with factors as the fulcrum is the biggest grasp for China’s economy to cross the middle-income trap.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Securities chief economist Yang Changcheng said that at present, China is facing great changes that have not been seen in a century. The turbulence of overseas political and economic structure and the pressure of China’s overall social development and epidemic prevention and control make economic development face more difficulties this year. In this year’s government work report, it is emphasized to do a good job in the risk support project. Under the current complex and changeable situation at home and abroad, it is not only very timely, but also very necessary to emphasize the risk support.
macro Outlook: safety first
In the macro aspect, Qin Tai, chief Macro Analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Securities Research Institute, said that the world has ushered in major changes with different paths but superimposed over time, which always reminds us of industrial security from energy supply to industrial chain integrity, domestic demand security from real estate to consumption, financial security from steady growth of infrastructure investment to efficient and sustainable use of financial resources From the moderate stimulus of monetary policy to the international financial security of maintaining a basically balanced exchange rate, it will become the core main line of China’s economic development in the medium-term perspective. The core logic of safety first also means that economic policies must make a precise balance between stimulating short-term growth and avoiding the risk of long-term imbalance.
In terms of monetary policy, Qin Tai believes that the downward pressure on real estate has not been completely relieved. Stabilizing the expectation of the real estate industry chain or the best way that monetary policy can do, the central bank’s profits increased the supply of trillion yuan of base currency, significantly reducing the need for RRR reduction during the year. Monetary policy may not be as obvious as interest rate and reserve requirement reduction, but the release of base currency is fully guaranteed. Monetary policy will still be in a “temperature neutral” environment with active release of base currency and low probability of interest rate reduction during the year.
Qin Tai said that the real GDP of the whole year is expected to grow by 5.3% year-on-year, of which 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, dragged down by the impact of service consumption and the weak real growth rate of fixed investment; It is expected to improve slightly from the second quarter, and the growth rate of real investment is expected to rise in the second half of the year, pushing China’s real GDP back to about 5.5% year-on-year.
a share strategy: it has “bathed in fire” and will be “reborn”
In terms of a shares, Fu Jingtao, chief analyst of A-share strategy of Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Securities Research Institute, said that first of all, in the first quarter of 2022, various bad and negative conditions superimposed and the market adjusted deeply. The long-term cost performance of the market low in mid March can be compared with several historical bottoms. The market is ushering in the bottom area of a large band. At this time, we should keep an ordinary mind: objectively understand the problems faced by the medium and short-term market, but also maintain a positive attitude and make good reserves. After the crash, we should pay more attention to marginal changes.
On the one hand, residents are recuperating and their purchasing power will gradually recover. The recovery of real estate sales, consumption and residents’ financial management is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2022. On the other hand, 2022 looks like 2012: “market bottom” may synchronize with “economic bottom”, which needs to wait for irrefutable recovery verification. Before that, the fundamental support is weak, and the short-term event catalysis of long-term problems may still significantly hurt the market. There may be another wave of opportunities for pro cyclical undervaluation, verification of “economic bottom” and investment in recovery period. Coal and real estate may become the direction with the highest elasticity.
Fu Jingtao said that the market still needs to grind the bottom in the second quarter of 2022, and the possibility of negative decline cannot be ruled out (the total amount and structure of fundamentals lack bright spots, and the event shocks are repeated). The market will start to warm up in the third quarter of 2022. 2022 may not be a bear market in the end, but it is still recommended to be patient in the second quarter of 2022.
Three possible winners and losers in 2022: be patient in the first and second quarters and don’t put pressure on strategic positions and energy for the time being. Two, the excavation of new economic boom and high tide may bring the winning and losing hands, with the following important concerns: price increase consumption (Baijiu, condiments), digital economy (computer), electronics and medicine subdivision (COVID-19 epidemic prevention). 3、 According to the verification of the economic bottom, the stock price of Pro cyclical undervalued value (coal and real estate) is expected to achieve high elasticity. Meanwhile, ignoring fluctuations and adhering to pro cyclical undervaluation in the first three quarters of 2022 may itself be a winning strategy.
