On March 23, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) held the spring strategy meeting of “entering the new economy in 30 years” – capital market in Shanghai through the network platform.
At the end of 2021, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) put forward the “V” trend. In this fluctuating year, on the left and right sides of the “V”, what are the structural markets in 2022? When is the inflection point? What investment opportunities will it bring? How will the capital market be laid out?
a shares’ big bottom corresponds to big opportunities, but it takes time to get out of the bottom
“The A-share market has’ bathed in fire ‘and is waiting for’ rebirth ‘.” Fu Jingtao, chief analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) research on A-share strategy, predicted at the strategy meeting that the long-term cost performance of the market low in mid March can be compared with several historical bottoms. “We are ushering in a large band bottom area. The big bottom corresponds to big opportunities, but the process of getting out of the bottom is often tortuous.” the market still needs to grind the bottom in the second quarter, and the verification of the economic bottom in the third quarter is the “rebirth moment” for the overall strength of the market
In Fu Jingtao’s view, 2022 is like 2012, and the “market bottom” may synchronize with the “economic bottom”, which needs to wait for irrefutable recovery verification. Before that, the fundamental support is weak, and the short-term event catalysis of long-term problems may still significantly hurt the market. There may be another wave of opportunities for pro cyclical undervaluation, verification of “economic bottom” and investment in recovery period. Coal and real estate may become the direction with the highest elasticity.
second quarter new energy still needs to be ground
In terms of allocation direction, Fu Jingtao believes that new energy still needs to be ground to the bottom in the second quarter. He pointed out that if the fundamentals of the industry with the first public position (power equipment as of the fourth quarter of 2021) are obviously different or confirmed to fall, the average duration of absolute and relative income adjustment will exceed two quarters. This time, the fundamentals of power equipment may be the case.
Therefore, Fu Jingtao believes that at the initial stage of market rebound / reversal, new energy is difficult to become a “winner” and needs to find a new main line
Looking for the new possible mainline in 2022, Fu Jingtao provides two clues based on the history of re opening: first, after the industry adjustment of the first place in the public offering, most of the new mainline will appear in other public offering positions. The key points are: the medium term opportunities of increasing consumption (Baijiu, condiments), digital economy (computer), electronics (power semiconductor in the first half, second half of consumer electronics) and medicine subdivision (COVID-19 epidemic prevention). Second, if the new economic boom does not appear in time, the “economic bottom” may drive the pro cyclical undervaluation to become a new main line.
According to Fu Jingtao, there are three possible winners and losers in 2022. First of all, the second quarter needs to be patient and don’t put pressure on strategic positions and energy for the time being
Second, the excavation of the new economic boom may bring the winning and losing hands. The suggestion is to focus on the consumption of prices (Baijiu, condiments), digital economy (computers), electronic and pharmaceutical subdivision (COVID-19 epidemic prevention).
Third, with the verification of the economic bottom, the stock price of Pro cyclical undervalued value (coal and real estate) is expected to achieve high elasticity. Ignoring fluctuations and adhering to pro cyclical undervaluation in the first three quarters of 2022 may itself be a winning strategy.
It is reported that Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) gathered the strength of the whole company to customize the agenda and content of the conference with the theme of “entering the new economy in 30 years”. At the meeting, Yang Yucheng, President of Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) securities, delivered an opening speech; Invite members of the CPPCC National Committee to share the macroeconomic and regulatory policies in the government work report; Famous scholars from Renmin University of China have brought opportunities and challenges to the development of digital economy under the current situation; The authoritative expert of power system introduced the current power industry and the development prospect of source network load storage for the construction of new power system.
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