Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan, which ushered in great benefits for the energy storage industry. The agency believes that under the promotion of policies, the business model of new energy storage may be gradually constructed and mature in the future, and it is expected to usher in large-scale development during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
application scenarios are constantly enriched, and the market demand needs to be released
Under the vision of "double carbon", energy storage plays an important role in regulating the peak of power consumption and improving power efficiency, and promoting the transformation of energy structure to low-carbon. This time, the implementation plans issued by the two ministries and commissions have defined the development objectives and detailed key tasks, which are as follows: by 2025, the new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization; By 2030, new energy storage will be fully market-oriented.
As the penetration rate of new energy power generation has increased significantly worldwide, the development of new energy has spawned the demand for energy storage. The application scenarios of energy storage mainly include power supply side, user side and power grid side. The implementation plan released this time points out that since the 13th five year plan, China's new energy storage has made substantial progress. Technological innovations such as electrochemical energy storage and compressed air energy storage have made great progress. By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage exceeded 4 million KW, "new energy + energy storage", conventional thermal power configuration and energy storage, smart microgrid and other application scenarios have emerged, the business model has been gradually expanded, the policy mechanism at the national and local levels has been continuously improved, and the supporting role for energy transformation has initially appeared.
The "14th five year plan" period is a critical period and window period for China to achieve the goal of carbon peak, and it is also an important strategic opportunity period for the development of new energy storage. New energy storage is one of the breakthrough points for expediting new business forms of energy industry and building a new engine of economy. Accelerating industrial layout is facing major opportunities. Guosheng Securities Research Report believes that this policy is a programmatic document for the development of new energy storage during the 14th Five Year Plan period, following last year's Guiding Opinions on accelerating the development of new energy storage. In the application field, the power supply side is expected to become one of the main development directions; At the same time, the grid side and user side are also expected to achieve accelerated growth. In the follow-up, it is expected to improve the price guidance mechanism of grid side energy storage and the price mechanism to encourage the development of user side energy storage.
Ping An Securities believes that under the promotion of policies, the business model of new energy storage is expected to be gradually constructed and mature in the future, and large-scale development will be ushered in during the "14th five year plan". In the global market, with the continuous enrichment of application scenarios and the gradual emergence of economy, the development of new energy storage will usher in a period of rapid development Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that according to the policy requirements and distribution and storage requirements of different application scenarios, the global energy storage market is expected to release a large amount of energy storage construction demand from 2021 to 2025 along with the energy transformation and the construction rhythm of downstream power demand.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that only from the demand side, in the context of accelerating the grid connection of photovoltaic and wind power generation, it is necessary to provide corresponding energy storage systems to deal with the fluctuation of power generation; In addition, the demand for 5g base station construction also drives the demand for energy storage lithium battery to further increase. It is comprehensively estimated that the new installed capacity of global energy storage lithium battery is expected to reach 163 GWH in 2025, and the CAGR (compound annual growth rate) will be 41% from 2021 to 2025.
industrial chain is becoming more and more mature, and listed companies are intensively distributed
As one of the popular concepts in the A-share market, energy storage is the preferred layout direction of many listed companies. Since March, a number of listed companies have announced their layout plans Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) announced that it had signed cooperation agreements with China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Three Gorges group, etc., and planned to jointly invest in the construction of energy storage projects and other new energy projects in Henan Province. The joint venture expects that by 2030, the total installed capacity of energy storage projects and other new energy projects invested, constructed, operated and managed will reach 10 million KW Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) also announced that the company's subsidiary plans to invest 8 billion yuan in Shifang City and plans to build a 20gwh power battery and energy storage battery production base. In addition, Tianqi plans to increase the equity of Hongyuan by RMB 3.36 billion through the announcement of Tianqi 3.62 billion in cash. After the equity transfer and capital increase, the company will achieve rapid expansion in the field of new energy power stations and energy storage.
The energy storage industry chain covers the whole links of equipment, installation and operation, mainly including upstream equipment manufacturers, midstream system integration and installation, and downstream end customers. Energy storage battery is one of the key areas of the layout of listed companies. According to the statistics of the Institute of high industry, the shipment volume of energy storage battery in China in 2021 was 48gwh, an increase of 2.6 times year-on-year. Judging from the shipments of major Chinese enterprises, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Zhongtian energy storage, Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co.Ltd(300068) occupy the top four. Among them, the two major manufacturers of energy storage lithium batteries Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Byd Company Limited(002594) have achieved rapid growth in related businesses in 2021. In addition to the above-mentioned enterprises, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and other enterprises have also increased investment in energy storage track.
At the performance level, the data show that as of the time of press release, 21 companies in energy storage concept stocks have issued performance forecasts for 2021. From the lower limit of year-on-year growth of predicted net profit, 15 of them have positive growth in predicted net profit, with the highest growth rate of Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , and the expected year-on-year growth of net profit is more than 21 times.
According to the investment suggestions of energy storage industry, Guorong securities analysis suggests to grasp the main line from three aspects: first, the power battery and energy storage battery are of the same origin. With the expansion of production of leading manufacturers, the cost is expected to decline rapidly, and leading manufacturers are expected to benefit first; Second, the converter link with high cost in the industrial chain is expected to usher in rapid growth; Third, there is a strong demand for overseas household energy storage, and the global household energy storage leader deserves attention.
