The situation in Russia and Ukraine is dawning again!
On the 21st local time, in an interview with Ukrainian media, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he was ready to discuss and make a commitment that Ukraine would not seek to join NATO in exchange for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Russian troops and Ukraine’s security. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s foreign minister dmitro kuleba tweeted, “we agree with China’s position on the need to find a political solution to the Ukrainian war and call on China, as a global power, to play an important role in this effort.”
From the perspective of capital markets, international oil prices plunged rapidly on Tuesday, while European stock markets rebounded slightly. At present, the market response to the situation in Russia and Ukraine is becoming more and more dull, but the real economy has begun to respond to the negative impact of the conflict. Protests in some European countries due to rising prices and the upside down of multiple term treasury bonds in the United States are all precursors of “stagflation”.
it is worth mentioning that at present, the world is also actively seeking energy substitution. The just held EU leaders’ summit statement agreed to jointly purchase natural gas, liquefied natural gas and hydrogen energy. In early March, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von delaine, made it clear in his speech to the European Parliament that hydrogen energy would play an important role in replacing dependence on Russian natural gas and ensuring energy security. While Europe is eyeing hydrogen energy, China’s hydrogen energy industry has also ushered in heavy benefits. So, can this 10 trillion level track become a super tuyere
ZELINSKY’s appeal
According to CCTV news, on the 21st local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in an interview with Ukrainian media that he was ready to discuss and make a commitment that Ukraine would not seek to join NATO in exchange for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Russian troops and Ukraine’s security. Zelensky said that it is clear that Ukraine cannot be allowed to join NATO because NATO does not want to conflict with Russia. Zelensky also said that it is possible to reach a compromise in the Ukrainian Russian negotiations, but the first thing should be to achieve a ceasefire. He also reiterated his call for direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
However, ZELINSKY’s appeal seems to have a trace of contradiction. At present, he is still asking relevant parties to increase sanctions against Russia. On the morning of the 22nd local time, Zelensky delivered a speech to members of the Italian Senate and house of Representatives by video connection, calling for more sanctions against Russia. In his speech, zelenski thanked Italy for its help to Ukraine and called for more sanctions and pressure on Russia.
The Ministry of foreign affairs of Ukraine seems to have a stronger response to the pursuit of peace. According to the global times, on the evening of the 21st, Ukraine’s foreign minister dmitro kuleba tweeted that “for decades, Ukraine China relations have been based on mutual respect, mutual understanding and mutual benefit and win-win results.” “On the need to find a political solution to the Ukrainian war, we agree with China’s position and call on China, as a global power, to play an important role in this effort.”
However, although Biden also agreed to settle the dispute through peace talks, the action of the United States does not seem to be conducive to peace talks. According to the Pentagon news on the 22nd local time, a batch of weapons worth $800 million provided by the United States to Ukraine have been shipped, but have not yet arrived in Ukraine. A Pentagon spokesman told CNN that the weapons will be delivered soon, and at least the first batch will be delivered to Ukraine soon. Some analysts believe that the landmark of the end of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine should be the beginning of contact between the United States and Russia, not Russia Ukraine negotiations.
energy chaos
The main problem brought about by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to the world is still energy. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international oil prices soared by 40% at most. Paradoxically, at this time, the Middle East is not peaceful again, and tit for tat wars between Saudi Arabia and Yemen come from time to time. On the other hand, although the Iran nuclear agreement may bring new increment to the oil market, it may be difficult to change the bull trend of oil prices in the short term.
Rising prices have also brought unrest to European society. On the 20th local time, a large-scale demonstration broke out in Madrid, Spain. People protested that the government could not curb the rise of prices. According to official estimates, about 150000 people participated in the protest. In addition, there have been phenomena such as hoarding and looting in Germany.
On Tuesday, Gazprom said it would continue to deliver natural gas to Europe through Ukraine. According to Interfax news agency, Ukrainian State Oil and gas company said that as long as technology allows, it will ensure the continuous transportation of natural gas in Ukraine. Gas transit costs are still being paid in euros and dollars. But this is not what Europeans want to see. Therefore, at the EU leaders’ summit just held, they announced that they agreed to jointly purchase natural gas, liquefied natural gas and hydrogen energy.
European Commission President Ursula von delaine made it clear in his speech to the European Parliament that hydrogen energy will play an important role in replacing dependence on Russian natural gas and ensuring energy security. She promised to support the growing scale of renewable energy and hydrogen energy industries in Europe by stimulating financial investment. For Europe, the development of renewable energy and hydrogen energy is the only way to achieve its energy independence and truly get rid of its dependence on natural gas.
10 trillion track rise
Judging from the situation in China, hydrogen energy is also very good in the near future. After the closing on Tuesday, according to the China Securities News, industry insiders reported that the medium and long-term plan for the development of China’s hydrogen energy industry is expected to be released in the near future. After the release of the above news, there was another heavy news: the national development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on March 23 to introduce the medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035).
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) believes that the core of hydrogen energy planning is “medium and long term”: medium and long term hydrogen energy planning means that the focus is not only in the field of transportation, but also in areas such as heating, chemical industry, steelmaking, power generation and so on, where deep decarbonization cannot be achieved without introducing hydrogen energy. “Medium and long term” means a wider range and larger planning objectives, and hydrogen energy will usher in a “golden” development era.
From the perspective of positive links, hydrogen energy planning tends to pay more attention to the design of the whole hydrogen industry chain in order to cooperate with the national “double carbon” planning. Therefore, upstream green hydrogen preparation and the application of hydrogen in large industry and chemical industry may be more important, because the task of decarbonization in these fields is more difficult. Therefore, the possible positive links include upstream hydrogen production, hydrogen production equipment and purification equipment, midstream storage and transportation and hydrogen refueling station equipment, and downstream fuel cells will be accelerated with the large-scale cost reduction of the whole industrial chain.
In fact, hydrogen energy should be understood from two aspects: hydrogen energy and hydrogen fuel cell. Judging from the current situation, hydrogen energy has achieved large-scale application in high pollution industries such as steel and chemical industry, which may also be easily ignored by the market. Hydrogen fuel cells have high market expectations. At present, the more successful application scenarios are mainly heavy trucks. The subsequent application in passenger cars also depends on the decline of the cost of the industrial chain.
It is worth noting that in the long run, hydrogen energy must be the most important corner of the new energy industry. Because wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) can also realize energy storage and operation through hydrogen energy. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, by 2025, the output value of China’s hydrogen energy industry will reach 1 trillion yuan; By 2050, the demand for hydrogen will be close to 60 million tons, and about 700 million tons of carbon dioxide will be reduced. Hydrogen energy accounts for more than 10% of China’s terminal energy system, and the annual output value of the industrial chain will reach 12 trillion yuan, becoming a new growth pole leading economic development
These goals are put forward in the “finalization” of the heavy planning document for new energy, hydrogen energy and oil to lead China’s energy revolution
Hydrogen industry welcomes the catalyst again: medium and long-term planning is about to be released, and this link is intensively optimistic
