Today (March 23), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board, weakened rapidly at the beginning of the session, then stabilized and rebounded, and gradually rose in shock. There was a wave of diving in the stock index near noon. On the whole, A-Shares showed a shock consolidation pattern in early trading.
From the disk point of view, the market of light index and heavy stocks continues, there are a large number of bull stocks in the pharmaceutical industry, energy stocks rise again, and the local profit-making effect still exists. In the hydrogen energy sector, as of press time, the “20cm” limit of Hengguang shares, Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) , Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) , Zhejiang Provincial New Energy Investment Group Co.Ltd(600032) , Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) , etc. Among them, Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) has realized 3-board connection. In terms of the concept of energy storage, Wiscom System Co.Ltd(002090) , Citychamp Dartong Co.Ltd(600067) , Xianheng International Science&Technology Co.Ltd(605056) , Shouhang High-Tech Energy Co.Ltd(002665) , etc. In addition, in the traditional Chinese medicine sector, Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) , Shanxi Panlong Pharmaceutical Group Limited By Share Ltd(002864) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) and other limit increases, Gansu Longshenrongfa Pharmaceutical Industry Co.Ltd(300534) , Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) and other gains were higher. Among them, Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) has realized 4-board connection.
Guosheng Securities believes that the overall valuation of A-Shares has entered a relatively low range. At this stage, the opportunity is greater than the risk, and there is enough space for the upward rebound in the future. In terms of operation, although the current index has a demand for stepping back, there is limited downward space. Among them, the probability of the Shanghai index this year will not fall below the recent low. Due to the ebb of the theme speculation of short-term board connection on the disk, the superposition market is about to enter the disclosure period of the first quarterly report. Stepping back on the index may switch the style to the trend track sector such as photovoltaic and lithium battery. Therefore, it is necessary to observe the change of the disk style, follow the change of the market and grasp the rotation rhythm of the sector.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] hydrogen energy
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that carbon neutralization promotes energy transformation, and hydrogen energy may become a trillion blue ocean market. As a green energy with clean, low-carbon, high calorific value, diverse sources and flexible storage and transportation, hydrogen energy is known as the “ultimate energy” in the 21st century. The development of hydrogen energy industry is the only way for China to achieve the “double carbon” goal. The state has a positive attitude towards the development of hydrogen energy. Since 202, hydrogen energy related support policies have been issued frequently. The industry is expected to usher in a high boom and growth under the catalysis of policies.
Hydrogen energy is widely used, and fuel cell vehicles are the main increment of hydrogen energy demand in the short and medium term. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, under the “carbon neutralization” scenario in 2060, China’s annual demand for hydrogen will increase to about 130 million tons. As a key link in the development and utilization of hydrogen energy, China’s hydrogen stations have entered a stage of rapid development and are expected to reach a market scale of 100 billion by 2050. Large scale and equipment localization can promote the cost reduction of hydrogen stations. At present, the global hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is developing rapidly, and China occupies a dominant position in the global fuel cell bus and commercial vehicle segment market. In the future, with the maturity of fuel cell system technology and the decline of cost, the scale of hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck and passenger vehicle is expected to expand rapidly, which can give play to the advantages of hydrogen volatile fuel cell in the field of long-distance and heavy load.
The agency further proposed that the hydrogen energy industry chain involves many links and application scenarios, has broad development space, and is expected to become a trillion market in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of coal hydrogen production enterprises: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) ; It is suggested to focus on the layout of industrial by-product hydrogen Enterprises: Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , satellite chemistry, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) , Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) , China Xuyang group; It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of hydrogen production enterprises from electrolytic water: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of hydrogenation stations and hydrogenation unit enterprises: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , satellite chemistry, Zhenhai Petrochemical Engineering Co.Ltd(603637) , Sinopec Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co.Ltd(000554) .
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that in 2021, with the implementation of the demonstration application policy, hydrogen energy enterprises will be more clear about the amount of subsidies and product pricing, and the orders of fuel cell vehicle industry chain will increase significantly. Inspired by the medium and long-term industrial planning and the “double carbon” goal, local governments and state-owned enterprises are also expected to actively promote the implementation of hydrogen energy projects and “carbon reduction” applications. We expect that the new increment of fuel cell vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach the level of 8000 ~ 10000, among which hydrogen energy heavy trucks have obvious promotion advantages in terms of subsidy amount and application scenarios. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles increased by more than twice year-on-year in the first two months of this year. We expect that the sales volume of passenger cars / heavy trucks / logistics vehicles will reach 1000 / 3500 / 4500 respectively in 2022. In addition, the shipment volume of hydrogen production, electrolytic cell and storage / transportation / processing industrial chain equipment will also accelerate with the large volume of vehicles, and the industrial development is expected to press the fast forward key.
It is expected that the promotion of green hydrogen will be more in-depth in 2022. On the one hand, with the increase of new energy power stations, the demand for energy storage may promote the increase of some green hydrogen production projects; On the other hand, the demand for green hydrogen in the industrial field is also expected to increase. We expect that the sales volume of electrolytic cell equipment may exceed 1GW in 2022, with the corresponding market scale of 3 ~ 5 billion yuan. The application of new technologies of hydrogen energy is mainly reflected in the field of industrial carbon reduction. These technologies have made rapid progress in 2021, such as hydrogen energy metallurgy and power generation by mixing natural gas with hydrogen. It is expected that new breakthroughs in the application in 2022 are also expected to give birth to new tracks.
[Topic 2] energy storage
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan, which clearly proposed that by 2025, the new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization, in which the cost of electrochemical energy storage system will be reduced by more than 30%; By 2030, realize the comprehensive market-oriented development of new energy storage and basically meet the needs of building a new power system. Under the guidance of China’s top-level energy design, it is expected to accelerate the development of new-type energy storage system on a large scale and accelerate the implementation of the national top-level energy storage system in 2021.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that at present, the global average power generation cost of photovoltaic and onshore wind power is lower than that of coal and natural gas. It has become a form of power generation with lower cost and will usher in a stage of rapid development. However, wind power and photovoltaic power cannot achieve stable power generation, and after the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation reaches a certain threshold, the traditional thermal power generator set will not be able to be fully adjusted, so it is necessary to build a large number of energy storage equipment.
According to GGII data, China’s lithium battery energy storage increased by 128.4% year-on-year in 2021, and the industry entered the stage of accelerated development.
The agency further proposed to pay attention to the battery core leading enterprises with the highest cost in energy storage equipment, upstream core resource enterprises and battery energy storage converter enterprises in the medium and long term, such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co.Ltd(300068) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , etc.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) indicates that there is a broad space for the development of new energy storage. According to the policy requirements and distribution and storage requirements of different application scenarios, we judge that the global energy storage market from 2021 to 2025 is expected to release 20.1/32.7/52.5/65.3/93.2gw energy storage construction demand respectively with the pace of energy transformation and downstream power demand construction. The capacity demand under the comprehensive standby time is expected to be 38.8/68.5/108.1/158.8/235.7gwh respectively The new energy storage is mainly electrochemical energy storage represented by lithium-ion battery. The electrochemical energy storage system mainly consists of battery pack, bidirectional converter (PCS), energy management system (EMS), battery management system (BMS) and other electrical equipment. Electrochemical energy storage has great development potential. Leaders in various fields have arranged different links of the energy storage track in advance. With the rapid growth of parts driven by industry demand, we believe that system solution providers with brand, channel and core parts competitiveness will win in the energy storage market in the future.
[Topic 3] Traditional Chinese Medicine
Capital Securities said that the latest version of the plan and the expert consensus on prevention and treatment of New Coronavirus pneumonia in Chinese medicine are recommended for different Chinese medicine according to the severity, stage and symptoms of TCM. It is suggested to pay attention to Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Chinese traditional medicine.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) also mentioned that the global epidemic has repeated twists and turns, remains high and has high uncertainty. “Drug + vaccine” is still an important measure for long-term anti epidemic in the future. In terms of covid-19 drugs, traditional Chinese medicine plays an important role in the prevention and control of covid-19 epidemic in China. Many traditional Chinese medicines have been selected into the latest version of diagnosis and treatment plan. It is suggested to pay attention to Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) and other relevant beneficiary listed companies Five Chinese enterprises, including Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , and Kyushu pharmaceutical, have been approved to imitate Pfizer covid-19 oral medicine. It is suggested to pay attention to listed companies directly benefiting from it and listed companies related to the industrial chain, such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) . In terms of vaccines, covid-19 vaccine has promoted the performance of many enterprises, and the valuation has been in a reasonable range through the preliminary adjustment. China has begun to implement sequential immunization. It is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine development listed companies, such as Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , etc.
Xiangcai Securities pointed out that with policy support, we believe that traditional Chinese medicine still has great investment opportunities. From the demand side, the rigid demand characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry and the upgrading of pharmaceutical consumption jointly support the steady growth of the demand of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. From the perspective of policy, a series of favorable policies have been formed to promote the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, the development of formula particles, the support of medical insurance and payment policies, and the continuous addition of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces can not exceed 25%, bringing policy dividends and new demand to the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
The unique advantage of “preventing disease” brings development opportunities to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. From the perspective of performance, the traditional Chinese medicine industry has walked out of the low point and showed a marginal improvement trend. From the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry still has relatively obvious valuation advantages. “Policy + pharmaceutical consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantages” jointly build investment opportunities for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. Cost promotion constitutes a short-term driving factor. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven.
[theme 4] military industry
Dongguan securities mentioned that the valuation of the military industry and aviation sector has fallen below the average value of nearly a year, so it can be arranged at an appropriate time. In the short term, the global interest rate increase cycle may have an impact on companies with high valuation. Superimposed on the fact that the performance growth rate of some military industrial groups is lower than expected, the industry may have great volatility in the short term, but the short-term volatility will not affect the high prosperity of the industry during the whole “14th five year plan” period. In the long run, geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated. The United States and its allies are showing signs of shifting their strategic focus to the Asia Pacific region. The emergence of the US Navy in the South China Sea has become a norm. The number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving their military strength can they better cope with the increasingly complex world situation.
Capital Securities pointed out that by grasping the main line of aviation equipment investment, military electronics has high independent and controllable growth: 1) contract liabilities of main engine manufacturers + verification of advance receipts, and the growth of aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material sector, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The main engine manufacturer pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; The body system pays attention to Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , etc. 2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from actual combat military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) , etc.
Minsheng Securities said that it is optimistic about the performance of the military industry in the aftermarket of 2022 based on the following points: 1) in the “three cycle superposition” proposed by our system, the industry gradually entered the “high growth” stage of supply-demand resonance during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and 2022, as the second year of the 14th five year plan, will still maintain high growth; 2) The company’s performance confirms the high prosperity of the industrial chain. The contract liabilities disclosed in the 2021 interim report once again verify the sustainability of the high prosperity of the industry; 3) Since 2022, the sector has experienced a correction due to the impact of the market and some events, but the current position is at the bottom of the historical valuation. We expect the net profit of the industry to increase by more than 35% in 2022, with higher growth in the middle and upper reaches and high cost performance of the current configurationcenter>
