Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : focus on high performance growth and epidemic prevention and control
Continue to be optimistic about the upstream API sector of the industrial chain and the upstream pharmaceutical supply chain: ① the dual path growth of industrial upgrading + industrial extension of the API sector is expected to continue to improve the profitability of the API sector in 2022. ② Focus on the investment opportunities in the supply chain during the 14th Five Year Plan period (industrial upgrading + domestic substitution), including subdivided fields such as equipment and equipment, scientific instruments, upstream reagent consumables for scientific research, upstream consumables for pharmaceutical industry and raw and auxiliary material packaging materials.
In terms of investment suggestions, focus on the two main lines of high performance growth and epidemic prevention and control. Epidemic prevention and control mainly includes detection and killing, including detection and killing, vaccines and specific drugs and their R & D industrial chain, upstream supply chain, etc., with emphasis on vaccines and specific drugs (domestic and foreign) and their R & D industrial chain. It is suggested to pay attention to nucleic acid vaccine, pharmacy, antigen detection and other related industries.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : China’s covid-19 industrial chain continues to receive more attention from the market and investment ideas are exposed
China’s covid-19 industrial chain continues to receive more attention from the market. In terms of drugs, covid-19 drugs outside China have made a lot of progress recently. Internationally, the target of 3CL protease is hot, and there are new breakthroughs in new mechanism drugs, such as pegylated interferon λ Needles. In China, at present, two neutralizing antibodies in domestic covid-19 drugs have been approved. Clinically, Junshi / Wangshan wangshui, Kaifa pharmaceutical, real biology, Staidson(Beijing) Biopharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300204) and Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) have related drugs under research. Preclinically, they mainly focus on the research and development of 3CL protease and RNA polymerase inhibitors, and many enterprises have disclosed related varieties.
In terms of vaccines, China’s vaccine research and development through multiple technology paths is still advancing simultaneously. Positive progress has also been made in the research and development of monovalent and multivalent vaccines against Omicron mutant strains. Among them, those with rapid progress have completed preclinical research and are submitting application materials for clinical trials to the State Drug Administration. In addition, overseas clinical data show that the existing vaccination and enhanced needle vaccination are still effective for the Omicron variant.
In addition, the performance period is coming gradually, which is expected to drive the sector to pick up. The annual report and the first quarter are coming, and the performance is expected to become an important catalyst for the upward movement of the sector. It is suggested to focus on the segments and related companies with high growth in the first quarter report. We expect the first quarter report of related companies in the following sectors, such as “CXO, upstream of life sciences, vaccines, ophthalmology, upstream of some devices, some brand traditional Chinese medicine and some APIs”, to achieve rapid growth.
From the perspective of recommended targets, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) : a leading global preclinical cro enterprise with outstanding industry status Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) : leading medical device enterprise with outstanding R & D and sales capacity and reasonable valuation Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) : the leader in the upstream supply chain of fluorescent endoscope, with high growth expected in 22 years Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) : HPV vaccine and IVD double wheel drive companies have a high growth Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) : leading pharmaceutical equipment, high performance growth, cutting into the mode of equipment + consumables Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) : China’s leading enterprise in the export of injections. The company’s high performance growth is driven by the large amount of overseas preparations.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : the global epidemic has twists and turns repeatedly. “Drug + vaccine” is still an important long-term anti epidemic measure in the future
The global epidemic has repeated twists and turns, remains high and has high uncertainty. “Drug + vaccine” is still an important measure for long-term anti epidemic in the future. In terms of covid-19 drugs, traditional Chinese medicine plays an important role in the prevention and control of covid-19 epidemic in China. Many traditional Chinese medicines have been selected into the latest version of diagnosis and treatment plan. It is suggested to pay attention to Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) and other relevant beneficiary listed companies Five Chinese enterprises, including Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , and Kyushu pharmaceutical, have been approved to imitate Pfizer covid-19 oral medicine. It is suggested to pay attention to listed companies directly benefiting from it and listed companies related to the industrial chain, such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) . In terms of vaccines, covid-19 vaccine has promoted the performance of many enterprises, and the valuation has been in a reasonable range through the preliminary adjustment. China has begun to implement sequential immunization. It is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine development listed companies, such as Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , etc.
The overall valuation of the industry is at a historically low level and the industrial development trend is good. We maintain the optimistic view of the industry and suggest paying attention to the following directions: (1) China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) especially the rapid development of biopharmaceutical field, but there are still shortcomings in the upstream supply chains of basic links, high-end pharmaceutical equipment, life science reagents, consumables, instruments and equipment, and the main markets are occupied by foreign-funded enterprises, The “14th five year plan” for the development of the pharmaceutical industry first proposed “comprehensively improve the modernization level of the pharmaceutical industry chain, realize the stability and controllability of the supply chain, accelerate the innovation driven development transformation, and continuously improve the policy and technical level. Driven by such factors, China’s upstream high-tech industry chain will develop rapidly and accelerate domestic substitution. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant sub sectors;
(2) driven by policies, talents, capital and other factors, domestic innovative drugs have developed rapidly, entered the harvest period of achievements, opened the road of internationalization and ushered in a new stage of upgrading. They have begun to gradually transform from me too / me worth to higher quality and more innovative me better and first in class. In the future, whether in the Chinese market or overseas market, they will have strong R & D strength, rich pipelines and reasonable gradients, The advantages of domestic innovation leading enterprises with outstanding product differentiation advantages will be further highlighted, and it is suggested to pay attention to them;
(3) global and Chinese innovative drug R & D is booming, production capacity continues to transfer to China, and China’s CXO industry is developing rapidly. It is expected that with the promotion of policies, the continuous improvement of technical level and related demand, the industry concentration is expected to further improve, and the head effect is becoming more and more obvious. It is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders and sub leaders, such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) etc.
Great Wall Guorui Securities: the valuation level of the pharmaceutical industry sector is still significantly lower than the industry average, focusing on investment opportunities in six aspects
The valuation level of the pharmaceutical industry sector is still significantly lower than the industry average and slightly lower than the negative standard deviation level of the industry. The valuation is at the bottom of history. At present, the investment value of the industry is prominent. We suggest increasing the allocation proportion of the industry and paying attention to investment opportunities in six aspects: first, the results of the annual report in 2021 and the first quarter report in 2022 are disclosed one after another, and paying attention to the leading enterprises with high growth or exceeding expectations in the annual report and the first quarter report;
Second, with the official release of the 14th five year plan for the development of pharmaceutical industry, under the premise of controlling medical insurance expenses, innovation and internationalization will be the core main line of the industry in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to innovation driven companies and pharmaceutical enterprises with international ability;
The third is the CXO industry. The valuation of CXO industry is at the bottom of history. With the listing of covid-19 oral medicine, China’s high-quality cdmo enterprises have obtained sufficient orders. Contrarian, focus on companies with reasonable valuation and sufficient orders;
Fourth, drugstore chain companies with reasonable valuation and stable recovery;
Fifth, pay attention to the consumer medical section. Under the background of medical insurance fee control, the ophthalmology, medical beauty and other medical sub industries with consumption attribute have policy immunity, and the consumption upgrading will drive their development;
Sixth, pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine sector. The release of the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine shows the state’s determination to the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, which will play a positive role in the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
Under the background of structural investment in medical insurance industry
We believe that under the background of repeated outbreaks in China and the state attaches great importance to covid-19 from detection to isolation to treatment, the listed companies related to covid-19 pneumonia industry chain benefit, including 1) IVD industry chain (manufacturers whose antigen detection products have been approved for listing in China, manufacturers whose antigen detection products have been approved for listing abroad (it is expected that China will obtain certificates in the future) and IVD upstream raw material enterprises) 2) Covid-19 specific drug industry chain (covid-19 specific drug R & D enterprise, covid-19 specific drug commercialization enterprise, covid-19 specific drug upstream enterprise and covid-19 specific drug R & D outsourcing enterprise), 3) covid-19 pneumonia treatment related traditional Chinese medicine industry chain. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the risks of centralized purchase and price reduction, deterioration of competition pattern, and failure of R & D progress to meet expectations.
In the long run, we believe that under the background of medical insurance fee control and China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industrial upgrading, the pharmaceutical sector is dominated by structural investment opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) CXO sector is the only one in medicine that is not affected by policies and has a high landscape. At present, the core problem of CXO sector is to kill valuation, and there is no significant change in fundamentals. 2) Policy immunization + undervalued value enables the OTC segment of traditional Chinese medicine to have performance growth momentum and valuation cost performance.
Capital Securities: focus on antigen detection, covid-19 small molecule drugs and opportunities in the industrial chain of traditional Chinese Medicine
In March 15th, the National Health Council released the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth). The new diagnosis and treatment plan adds antigen detection in the diagnosis part and some drugs in the treatment part, further enriching China’s epidemic prevention tool library, and relevant fields are expected to benefit.
Antigen detection has a wide range of application scenarios, and a variety of antigen detection products in China have been approved. At present, 17 covid-19 antigen self-test products have been listed in China. Enterprises with first mover advantages, channel advantages, production capacity advantages and quality advantages are expected to obtain greater benefits. It is suggested to pay attention to Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Asahi biology, etc.
Covid-19 small molecular weight is imminent, and China’s R & D is advancing in an orderly manner. Moshadong molnupiravir and Pfizer paxlovid have been approved in many countries around the world. Commercial products and MPP products are expected to bring huge benefits to the industrial chain. The research and development of small molecule drugs in China is mainly based on RdRp and 3clpro inhibitors. The real biological azvudine and Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) vv116 are expected to be approved for listing this year. Covid-19 a small molecule: a small molecule: a small molecule: a small molecule: a small molecule: a small molecule: an upstream cdmo for a small molecule: a small molecule: the cdmo for a small molecule: it’s recommended to pay attention to the recommendations for the cdmo of the upstream cdmo for a small molecule. The cdmo for the upstream cdmo for a small molecule: a small molecule: a small molecule: an upstream cdmo for a small molecule: the cdmo for the upstream of a small molecule: it’s recommended to pay attention to the .
Timely, comprehensive and in-depth intervention of traditional Chinese medicine to help epidemic prevention. In the recent release of the new version and the expert consensus on the prevention and treatment of New Coronavirus pneumonia in proprietary Chinese medicine, according to the severity of the disease, stages and symptoms of traditional Chinese medicine, we recommend different Chinese medicine for treatment. It is suggested to pay attention to Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Chinese traditional medicine.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : change and Invariance Based on pharmaceutical investment! Actively grasp investment opportunities in the direction of innovation and internationalization
Based on the changes and invariance of pharmaceutical investment, we believe that we should actively grasp the investment opportunities in the direction of innovation and internationalization in the future. In terms of innovative drugs and vaccines, Xinda Biology (H) and Rongchang Biology (H) are recommended; In terms of CXO, Yao Mingsheng (H), Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) ; In the field of equipment and Life Sciences, recommend Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , minimally invasive medicine (H), Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) , Amoy Diagnostics Co.Ltd(300685) ; In terms of innovative cutting-edge technologies, pay attention to unlisted enterprises such as Aibo biology; For domestic consumption, we recommend Jinxin reproduction (H), Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Shandong Wit Dyne Health Co.Ltd(000915) , Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) .
The current layout of the innovation sector has a good long-term value
The innovative drug sector is affected by many factors. At present, the overall valuation has basically fallen back to the pre epidemic level. From the medium and long-term perspective, we believe that the valuation of the sector has returned to rationality, and the current time node has good medium and long-term layout value.
With the release of a number of policies related to innovative drugs, such as registration approval, medical insurance access and terminal promotion, the development of China’s innovative drug industry has entered a new stage of standardized development. China’s innovative drug industry continues to develop rapidly, and some commercialized varieties have the potential of heavy varieties. With the continuous increase of varieties entering the commercialization stage, innovative drug enterprises, combined with their own product characteristics and adopting innovative drug strategies in line with their own resource endowment, have the opportunity to achieve greater success in the commercialization stage.
In terms of investment strategy, it is suggested to focus on listed companies that have approved one or more innovative drugs. Combined with R & D pipeline, commercialization strategy and multi-dimensional screening of valuation and cost performance. Analysis of stock selection ideas: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Baiji shenzhou-u (recommended concern), Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) -u, Cinda Biology (H), Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) , Fuhong Hanlin (H-share, recommended concern), kangfang biology-b (H-share, recommended concern), Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) (recommended concern).
